RoovialkEither you are incredible naive or are being deliberately obtuse if you do not understand that this stock market meltdown in only one small symptom of the malaise China is suffering. The slowdown in the Chinese economy is structural. And the CCP is seeing that there are no brakes on this run away locomotive they have lost control over. The image of invincibility China has worked so hard to create has been shown to be at the end of the day a mere facade. The problem the Chinese government is now facing is unrest. And China has never fared well during times of unrest.
The surplus of young males in Chinese society today presents a dangerous situation for China to solve. Several times when there has been an unbalance of young males in Chinese society it led to situations like the Nein Rebellion. And history demonstrates that such male surplus societies like we see in China today cannot be governed by anything less than an authoritarian political system. Furthermore, and this is the interesting part, high-sex-ratio societies typically develop a foreign policy style crafted to retain the respect and allegiance of its surplus males — a swaggering, belligerent, provocative style.
Sounds like China today doesn’t it?
RoovialkLol, I don’t know, there are more than a few armchair analysts and even some serious political commentators who think that if their masturbatory socio-economic collapse fantasies occurs in China, the evil commie dictatorship is more likely to start a war to “divert attention away from internal failures” or something… :highly_amused:
Losing trillions of dollars (Yuan) of value in one week is no laughing matter. China is in serious trouble and wither you admit it or not this will have a profound effect on the state of China for a long time. And its not over yet. China has some looming decisions quickly bearing down on them. And the Chinese leadership cannot allow unrest to happen in the country.
RoovialkThe author should keep an eye on real world events regarding China. At the rate that China is bleeding cash his scenario should be talking about civil strife in Chinese cities as the collapsing Chinese economy causes the PLA to be deployed maintaining order in Chinese cities. By 2018 China won’t have time to undertake military adventures as the central government will have its hands full with internal security problems
RoovialkStorm surge defined
” Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases.”
China’s attempt to build bases in the South China Sea may backfire. I hope the PLAN has a solid plan to evacuate its personnel in the event of bad weather.
RoovialkWithin the context of any so called Sino – Russia alliance this basic fact is always lurking:
“…Siberia – the Asian part of Russia, east of the Ural Mountains – is immense. It takes up three-quarters of Russia’s land mass, the equivalent of the entire U.S. and India put together. It’s hard to imagine such a vast area changing hands. But like love, a border is real only if both sides believe in it. And on both sides of the Sino-Russian border, that belief is wavering.
The border, all 2,738 miles of it, is the legacy of the Convention of Peking of 1860 and other unequal pacts between a strong, expanding Russia and a weakened China after the Second Opium War. (Other European powers similarly encroached upon China, but from the south. Hence the former British foothold in Hong Kong, for example.)
The 1.35 billion Chinese people south of the border outnumber Russia’s 144 million almost 10 to 1. The discrepancy is even starker for Siberia on its own, home to barely 38 million people, and especially the border area, where only 6 million Russians face over 90 million Chinese. With intermarriage, trade and investment across that border, Siberians have realized that, for better or for worse, Beijing is a lot closer than Moscow.”
RoovialkGuess the Chinese in their haste to build bases on sandbars have failed to do proper research on what a storm surge can do to low lying sand islands. One good typhoon like Maysak (2015) and China’s South China sea ambitions are over. China may have bitten off more than it can chew.
..”Typhoon Maysak, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Chedeng, was an unusually intense early-season tropical cyclone and the most powerful pre-April typhoon on record in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.[1][2] Maysak affected Yap and Chuuk State in the Federated States of Micronesia, as well as the Philippines.”
[ATTACH=CONFIG]237794[/ATTACH]
[ATTACH=CONFIG]237795[/ATTACH]
Roovialk[QUOTE=QuantumFX;2228279]2 J-20 P2013 videos I saw at SDF a few days back: What going on here? Is it a display for a VVIP or are they getting ready for an Airshow or some public display?
These videos sure show the J-20 doing alot of maneuvering in the horizontal but very little in the vertical. Was this due to a lack of power from the engines or were they practicing their bad weather routine?
RoovialkThat’s sad.
RoovialkOn what do you base that assertion? You have given absolutely no evidence to back it up. You’ve made the utterly ridiculous claim that not using the same jersey colours as the USN for specific roles proves that the PLAN has got it wrong, a claim so foolish that it discredits any further claims of yours unless backed by solid evidence, but failed to provide any. You just make unsupported assertions, backed by “others [unnamed] with a better view [un-described, unsupported] of the situation”, & the like.
Are you going to try, or just keep spouting this sort of trash?
Answer: Let China and the PLAN show the world something. They say they are capable of innovation so now is the time to show the world how innovative they are. Lets see China show the world a better way to conduct carrier operations. China its on you.
RoovialkYour strange obsession over “The Dance on the deck” whatever that actually means and colour of shirts doesn’t remove the fact they went from first landing to exercises with a squadron in three years. Just saying “They started in 1987 so why are they not better?” is a gross oversimplification of a significant amount of history. I don’t think they are anywhere close to being the USN when it comes to carrier operations but their progress so far is pretty impressive.
The dance on the deck or the human integration of man and machine in carrier operations is somehow beyond the PLAN. One theory is that the Chinese have become so dependent upon copying other people’s technology that their spirit of innovation has atrophied away from disuse. Another is that the Chinese as a society are so rigid that the looseness and rhythm associated with carrier operations is just not in them. Whatever the reason the human interaction of aircraft on a carrier deck filled with spinning props and jet intakes and exhausts is a lesson the Chinese are going to find is written in blood.
You may take issue with the reference to the ‘dance on the deck’ but that is EXACTLY how it is referred to by carrier personnel. It is a dance. And the 18 and 19 year old sailors do it good. Its the tiny things and nuances that confound the PLAN. Its more than colored jersey’s and FOD walk downs. Its the nod of a crewman’s head as millions of dollars worth of aircraft taxis across a slippery greasy deck while the ship pitches and heaves. And without this ‘dance on the deck’ the carrier does not perform its main mission. And that is launching and recovery of aircraft at sea to project power over the horizon.
And this lesson is not one you find in a book or manual. It comes from doing. Maybe you are impressed with PLAN progress but others with a better view of the situation are not so impressed. If the PLAN knew better they would do better.
RoovialkI give up, Roovialk.
I think I’ve explained everything to a degree that even a five year old can understand but it seems like you’re not even reading what I write, and you’re ignoring everyone else’s opinion of you as well.
You’ve reached a predetermined conclusion that you need to believe in and you’re twisting every little piece of evidence or lack of to support your notion and sticking your head in the sand when your fallacious leaps in logic are pointed out. You can believe what you want.
Sorry to see that you feel that way. I’m hurt
RoovialkIf you’ve been over to SDF lately and browsed in the carrier thread you’d have noticed that there have been only a handful of photos of Liaoning at dock in the last year. So yes, posters on SDF have absolutely asked where Liaoning is, because she sure as hell ISN’T at dock. If she were we’d have constant picture updates of it.
So in effect you’ve just defeated the premise of your own argument which is based around the idea that Liaoning is always at dock.
Fact is, we don’t know where she’s been most of last year, and we’ve lost track of how long she’s spent at dock and at sea as well. .
The true facts are that photos of the Liaoning sitting at anchor at the docks are so boring that most people are begging for pictures of the boat in action and at sea. This is the jist of the requests of the posters at SDF. They say “Please show us something that proves that Liaoning is still alive and sailing”
This is why these couple of pictures that show four production J-15s on the deck of the Liaoning have created such a stir. People are hungry for information that shows the PLAN bid for carrier operations is still alive.
—
So let’s review:
-you have indirectly admitted the PLAN still have different coloured vests. Good. Vests aren’t that important in the scheme of things, but the fact that it was your fulcrum for your illogical inferences means removing it has also removed your other ridiculous arguments dependent on the presence or lack of presence of coloured vests
-I’ve also shown that you do not have photos for Liaoning constantly being at dock, and in fact the lack of photos of Liaoning at dock and the difficulty to get photos of Liaoning at sea makes it likely that she is at sea for the time when we do not have photos for her at dock.
I agree: Lets review:
– A colored jersey deck crew system on the Liaoning is not important because the Liaoning is in a state of semi hibernation as the PLAN tries to figure out what is wrong with the ship. They have other problems to be concerned with
– The fact that Liaoning is not being seen proudly flying the banner of the Chinese navy at sea lends credence to the whispers about Liaoning suffering propulsion problems.
Do not forget that Liaoning’s sister Russia’s Kuznetsov, also has suffered reliability issues that have limited her deployment.
Regarding the Chinese engines:
“…Evidence suggested that as of 2013 AVIC’s aviation gas turbine engine makers were still having trouble maintaining consistent quality control as they scaled up production of the developed engines, causing problems with reliability…”
RoovialkRussian teach Indians to operate a new aircraft on carrier in shortest possible time. It need tremendous experience to teach something so fast to some one else. Completely new cockpit and ground up design of aircraft ready for strike from day 1.
The Indians have operated the MiG29 in their air force for years. It was a small step to learn to operate the MiG29I off their carrier.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]237185[/ATTACH]
RoovialkDoh!
Others have explained why this is stupid, but you’ve ignored that before. You’re guilty of cargo-cult type thinking. You’re confusing the outward appearance with the underlying systems, thinking that what you have to do is make your stuff look the same, & miraculously it will work the same.
The selection of a particular colour for a particular task is not, in itself, of great importance. What matters is that there is a consistent system (not “the system”) of colours used on the ships that those sailors & aircrew work aboard. It doesn’t matter very much what the system is, only that it is consistent.
It does not have to be the same as any other systems, unless the same crews operate on ships of other nationalities, in which case they should align their systems. This does not apply to the PLAN.
A big fat yawn for you and the PLAN
RoovialkOkay, you are apparently colour blind — I’ve drawn a circle for you, around the other colours. Green, yellows and a red shirt are visible in that circle. The circle is red, by the way, but I suppose it will appear a darkish shade of gray for you FYI.
If the PLAN is adopting red jerseys for aircraft maintenance then they are already heading down the wrong path. Every other carrier nation uses their red jerseys for ordinance handling.
http://www.carrierbuilders.net/articles/20050212_crew_colors/crew_colors.htm
We have no idea what the Chinese are doing with their carrier program apart from a few surface details. They sensibly do not release enough photos or videos on an upto date basis for us to make any meaningful assessment of how far they are along at any point in time. The fact that you’re trying to make so many inferences is simply fallacious…..
…..Do you know how much time the Liaoning has spent at dock versus at sea over the last year or so? Because I certainly do not. If you do not either, then you have no basis to say what the PLAN thinks or doesn’t think regarding mastering carrier operations.
Finally, you Roovialk, need to slow down a little and stop trying to use every little photo to try and justify or inform your belief that the PLAN are not choosing to take their carrier program seriously or that they will fail at it. I’m not sure why you’re so obsessed with the notion, and it hasn’t subsided at all in the last few years.
If you really want to discuss PLAN carrier operations and try to make your case for your view you are welcome over at Sinodefenceforum.com, where there is far more consistent watching of PLAN carrier matters and far more experienced PLA watchers as well.
Your attempts to “explain” why the Liaoing spends more time dock side than at sea are notable but at the end of the day proper carrier operations demand that a carrier and her crew train at sea. You know this. And we all know that Liaoning cannot sail the high seas undetected. There are too many eyes monitoring this ship. Therefore it can safely be said that Liaoning is hiding for some reason. The speculation includes that Liaoning is suffering some type of engine problems that limit what it can do at this time. I am sure that you are familiar with these speculations.
Even posters on Sinodefenceforum have asked questions as to the whereabouts of the Liaoning and why she does not come out and play. So I am not alone in my inquiries.
In any event the world moves on and if the Chinese feel that sitting at anchor advances their carrier aviation program more power to them!
Sign In
