There are several wild cards to deal in this equation and one is the resentment Russia has for China and knowledge that China covets the extensive resources of Siberia. It should not be forgotten that Russia and China fought a serious border war in 1969 and Russia floated the idea to the United States at that time of jointly taking out China’s atomic weapons arsenal
With China’s ever growing appetite for natural resources you could see Russia joining with Japan and others in a mutual defense pact to ‘contain’ China. Russia being an European power might have to throw in with certain Asian powers to maintain its Asian presence in the region.
And it should be recalled that China invaded Vietnam to contain the spread of Russian influence in South East Asia. There are several scenarios where Chinese hegemony creates alliances that seem impossible today.
Most of the perception expressed here regarding America losing in Vietnam are flat wrong. In 1972 when North Vietnam tried to play cute and refuse to return to the Paris Peace talks the Linebacker 2 bombing campaign conducted from 18–29 December 1972 showed North Vietnam what America could and would do if America just decided to go buck wild on North Vietnam.
North Vietnam returned to the peace table quick, fast and in a hurry
In just that short period of time of Linebacker 2, America accomplished more than all the previous air campaigns had in several years of a costly war. The point is had something like Linebacker 2 been applied to the North years earlier the Vietnam war would have had a decisive outcome with North Vietnam having to sue for peace.
Most likely the Chinese carrier was victim of a JMSDF submarine. In any event it is funny how Japan has decided to twist the tail of the dragon
China’s rise has become more and more dependent upon the import of raw materials. Particularity oil. China does not have enough of it domestically to fuel their economy and as a result must go overseas to find additional resources. This has caused China to look into the middle east and Africa. Also this South China sea thing is about oil and this dust up with Japan is about oil.
The problem for China is that as they look to more distant places for oil they become more exposed to the interdiction of their sea lanes. Chinese oil shipments are even more exposed since they must transit several major choke points. Since China increasingly imports raw materials applying pressure to these choke points would put China in a world of hurt. Even a small power could hurt China by interrupting their flow of raw materials
China is trying very hard to address their dependence on the import of foreign raw materials by building up their naval power. But they will not be able to build ships fast enough to protect distant sources of vital resources. The sudden change of power in Libya showed China the extent of their reach
America has been at this game for some time and has it down. China is a rookie at this game and is trying to learn the ropes.
China is in a VERY vulnerable place and will remain there for quite some time
I’m aware that the flight deck is a very hazardous place.
I didn’t call yours a dig, but if you look earlier in the thread, there are a couple of those.
I merely pointed out that you assumed that they weren’t wearing steel capped shoes, when my link shows that you get all kinds of steel capped shoes, many of them coincidentally made in China these days. You simply cannot assume they aren’t steel capped because they aren’t black in colour like they all were back in the day.
Thus, you actually have no real proof that it is a gaff or not, which is my entire point. It’s an assumption. They may or may not be soft shoes.The news report you linked above sounds as if wearing steel capped boots wouldn’t have saved his leg.
Either way, it will be interesting to see how they get on over the next few years.
I suspect any indigineous carriers will only be laid down in the next few years, and benefit from their experience gained between now and then.
And I agree with your assessment. I meant no disrespect to you
…I personally would give them the benefit of the doubt that they will get it right, sooner or later, and not join the cheap digs at them that seem to be a feature from some posters. (Not you, Jonesy).
Can you ‘dig’ this? What you read below is the reality of the flightdeck and there are no shortcuts for any person or nation who wishes to become proficient with carrier operations. Pointing out a PLAN gaff is not a dig. Even the most experienced navy suffers accidents. China is just starting out on a long climb. And re-furbishing an old carrier is the easiest part of the climb.
YOKOSUKA NAVAL BASE, Japan — A sailor lost his lower right leg after being pinned under the wheels of an F/A-18 Hornet on the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier on Wednesday.
The 19-year old sailor is a “blue shirt” airplane handler in the carrier’s V-1 division and was on the flight deck at 6:15 p.m. when the accident occurred. His name is being withheld for “privacy reasons,” said Kitty Hawk spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Terrence Dudley.
“The Hornet was basically being parked on the flight deck,” Dudley said. “The case is still under investigation but we know that the sailor managed to get his leg trapped under the wheels.”
Of course the Chinese can wear any shoe they want on the flight deck. Its all good to me. It just seems odd that the PLAN who has copied so much of US Navy carrier procedures would miss these simple safety items.
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Speaking of procedures the PLAN is literally starting its carrier deck procedures on the wrong foot. During the recent cruise of the CV-16 (ex-Varyag), Chinese crewmen were seen on the flightdeck operating in soft footwear. Everyone knows that with the dangers on the flight deck the US Navy requires steel toe boots when working around aircraft and equipment. I guess this is another lesson the PLAN will have to learn the hard way [ATTACH=CONFIG]218578[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]218579[/ATTACH]
Why has the PLA carrier been in port for so long?
AFTI/F-16 flying out of Edwards
“…The USAF used this highly modified fighter for more than 20 years to test new and award-winning ideas in flight control, electronic targeting and cockpit design. A one-of-a-kind aircraft, the Advanced Fighter Technology Integration (AFTI) F-16 made more than 700 flights in 10 different research programs between 1978 and 2000. “
Lets ask the question this way: China suddenly has to evacuate its citizens from a distant place like Angola. Like what happened in Libya. Using the Liaoning carrier might be their only logical recourse. Would China use that option? Or would China request international help like what is happening in the East Africa pirate situation.
What I am talking about is an enhanced Libya style situation where Chinese nationals are under threat and Chinese airpower and military must be deployed to protect and evacuate its citizens in chaotic conditions
Angola, is now one of China’s largest trading partner, and it has meant large investments by China which have brought many Chinese workers, especially in construction.
Instability would call for China to pull those citizens out of Angola quite rapidly in the same way Chinese citizens had to leave Libya in a hurry.
Think Libya with the greater difficulty of few friendly airbases and greater distances from China for Chinese forces. China would be forced to use its nascent carrier force for evacuation.
I wonder would the Chinese swallow their pride and ask for international assistance?
I believe that China is working as fast as it can to advance its carrier programs. However world events may not give them time to complete their plans. I wish them luck
BTW, out of range of a land-based diversion field doesn’t cover many places I’d expect the PLAN to be operating its carrier for a while, & doesn’t cover much, if any, of the areas where USN carriers have done their fighting since 1945.
The Indian Ocean, Africa ( for example see Angola) and the Med areas are all places where the Chinese Navy could not conduct carrier operations due to lack of organic tanker support and having a land divert field on-call.
Yet these geographic locations are of vital interests to China. Were any lessons learned in the hasty evacuation of Libya?
It may not be elegant, but the USN routinely uses shore-based tankers. And what do you know about the PLAN’s ideas about how far from land it can operate? I doubt you have any more access to its inner councils than I do. It may not intend to operate outside land-based tanker range for the time being.
For TRUE blue water operations the US Navy uses carrier based tanker assets. They define blue water as being out of range of a land based divert field. If the Chinese navy intends to conduct true blue water ops they would have to do the same.
Or call it “almost” blue water ops.