A few observations:
One of the articles states that the deal was signed in late March. Interesting to note that Pakistan inaugurated its JF-17 factory in April. Would it make sense for them to inaugorate the factory (under much fanfare) after a deal had been signed between China and Russia which meant Pakistan would have to look for an alternative engine before it did anything else??
Given that it is universaly accepted that China has so far placed no firm orders for the type and the only firm orders are 150 for Pakistan – who the hell are they importing 100 engines for? Many a member has been keen to point out that China has no interest in the FC-1 (given that it has better domestic and import alternatives) – so what are we to believe now – that given Pakistan’s lack of access to engine – China has decided to go it alone?

My personal view is that iether:
1.Russia has included section in the contract stopping re-export – to avoid alarming India – but it has no intention of enforcing the section OR
2.China has developed an alternative to the RD-93 for Pakistan.

Iether way I don’t believe the engine is a problem. Personaly I think option 1 is the more likely – if China had a domestic alternative I doubt the would import 100 RD-93’s.

One more thing, if Pakistan decides to go for AEW platforms, the costs of intergration will really skyrocket, while one can hope that the growing economy can take care of things, I would advise memebrs that Pakistan is still on the IMF debt list and is heavily constrained in his spending due to past agreements, things may be looking better but IMF imposed budget constraints do exist. the PAF is trying to suddenly become a 4th gen airforce, the problem is that they are buying everything all at once, and where does this leave the air defense network which is probably more important to upgrade than the PAF itself. IF it took 20 years to finally come up with money plus aide for F-16s, then it cannot be assumed that they will again come up with more money for air defence network upgrades. I feel that this is where the PAF should concentrate vs the IAF.
The PAF should have stuck with FC-1s and produced more of them plus tried to either fit French avionics and radar ala Mirage 2000-5 or go for F-16 C type avionics and radar and missile systems. We are seeing a one engined airforce which is fine for air defense but why need the F-16 if the FC-1 has been made out to be similar in capability, they should simply rank up the numbers, these moves suggest more in terms of corruption rather than making sense, it seems that South Asia is not that different afterall.

AEW being very expensive is no surprise – the point is that the PAF doesn’t feel it has an option but to aquire this capability – given what India has ordered in this regard. If China is able to meet the requirements on this front – costs would become more manageable.
Air defence – like all sectors is also being upgraded – hence recent reports of longer range SAM development – potential aquisition of FT2000 etc etc.
I don’t think it is reasonable to suggest that if you have FC-1’s there is no need for F-16C/D’s.
The suggestion that the entire Government establishment has been relentlessly trying to persuade the U.S. to allow Pakistan to buy more F-16’s for years – just so that some corrupt officials can get some kickbacks is equaly obsurd.
With regard to paying for all this – I think it is best to split buys into 2 catogaries – Catogary 1 – purchases from the West (US)- Military aid is making the burden bareable / manageable.
Catogary 2 – purchases from China – I think China allows very favourable payment / credit terms to Pakistan making the burden bearable.

It is also important to note that Pakistani officials including the president have stated that a 15 year defence plan has been drawn up in the same briefings as talking about aquiring most of the goodies you mention – I don’t think its a leap to far to asume they have done their sums.

You are very correct that these new systems for Pak will cause any Indian leader to think twice befor Cold Start type stuff but there is a flip side to it.

There is more historical evidence that thanks to myth making, 1 muslim = 10 Hindu type reasoning, some Pak leader might get too light headed and launch a Kargil or Gibralter type “tactical genius” operation. If you read Pak Def you see even before the F-16 announcement some geniuses called for a preemptive strike on India to “liberate Kashmir” because a weapon in the hands of a Pakistani is 100 times better than a weapon with a Hindu etc, (BTW SyedAKM, I have a job and a really enjoyable life 🙂 )

That is in no one’s interest. But I’d bet we will see in a few years. My feeling is that of the saying about a dog’s tail.

BTW, India is also not going to let slip the big advantage it built up, so easily. If IAF buys 126 Rafale or Gripen or Super Hornets, we are back to square one.

I think most of what you say is singling Pakistan out as a problem while egnoring all else. Stones and glass houses comes to mind.

There are examples of ‘tactical genius’ type operations from both sides (remember Siachin) – and this trait is not unique to Pakistan. However more balanced forces would undoubtedly discourage such events.

As for extremist views and talk of pre-emptive strikes they are also not only exclusive to Pakdef – I’m sure we could find equaly extreme views on BR.

As for India maintaining its numerical and to some degree technological advantage – my previous post already agreed with this.

Still, some 70 F-16s, few Erieyes and 150 FC-1s will not be enough to stand up to some 100+ Su-30MKIs, 200 M2Ks/Mig-29s, 200+ LCAs and other crap India is going to have in the future.

It depends what you mean by ‘stand up to’. If you mean Pakistan will still not be in a position to win an all out air war — you are undoubtedly correct. India will remain numericaly overwhelming and probably still retain some technological advantages. But this is not unexpected due to the relative size / economic / political muscle of the two.

However if by ‘stand up to’ you mean that India would think far more carefully before launching any aggression (such as the ‘cold start’ doctrine) – then you are also correct.

The key point is that Pakistans new systems will clearly increase its defensive capability – while its desire to avoid all out conflict will maintain its strength. At the same time India will also be more encouraged towards reproachment and any danger of its superiority fueling the start of a conflict will be thwarted. This is the balance Rice spoke about – and I think its a balance that is in everyones interest.

Me thinks that this is the nail in the coffin for the JF-17. Now that the Pakistanis can get any number of cheap F-16’s, they don’t need some unproven Chinese jet that even the Chinese don’t seem to want.

Whether large enough quantities of F-16’s are made available remains to be seen. Signs of further delays are one thing – but I think completely wrighting off the whole projest is very premature.