According my latest data from 2007 Rafale weights are as follow:
Rafale C = 9500 kg
Rafale B = 9720 kg
Rafale M = 10130 kg

Look at the numbers for other SUPERSONIC aircraft. You appear to be trying to say that ONLY delta wing aircraft can fly supersonic.

It’s not just limited delta wing aircraft, but it is not unreasonable to assume that a relative fat aircraft, with low wing sweep angle and relative thick wings is not going to be an ubber supersonic performer, regardless of specific uninstalled static thrust.

A clean F-15C (NOTABLY bigger, heavier & less aerodynamic) can supercruise with about the same dry thrust as the F-35.

Notably bigger yes, but heavier? Inform yourself the F-15A/C weights actually not more than the F-35, despite being bigger. And less aerodynamic by what measure (excluding external stores).

Why do you think so many 4th generation fighters are being (or soon will be) fitted with conformal fuel tanks? I will tell you why, because it is more aerodynamically efficient than carrying external tanks AND it frees up hardpoints for weapons!

These CFTs will have an impact on performance nontheless, not as much as external tanks but still an impact. You can’t completely neglict the additional weight and drag and that is one of the reasons why people say just take a look at the F-35 it was designed as a fat lady to carry all its stuff internal. The F-35 is simply to small to appear sleak, like the Raptor does for example.

The small-diameter bomb? Sure I know what it is, and it’s got a great range for a glide weapon. For this same purpose, you could use a Kh-59MKE. Granted, it will demolish a hell of a lot more than the SDB.

Sorry but a 113 kg GPS guided bomb is hardely compareable to a heavy stand-off missile. These are to entirely different weapons, that is what I’m refering to.

GBU-28 vs a smaller KAB-1500 with penetration warhead. F-15E wins on larger bomb.

AGM-154 vs KH-59ME – Su-27SM wins on range.

AGM 158 – isn’t even in service.

JDAM – already covered, no sat guided weapons on Su-27SM, not that they are crucial with TV/laser available.

GBU-39 – Here you might as well use a Kh-59MKE.

In real terms, flex is right, there’s really no edge here for anyone.

Except stand-off for the Su-27, which could be equal when/if the AGM-158 comes into service.

GPS guided munitions are quite important. Both TV- and laser guided weapons are also weather dependent. TV guided munitions will have a harder time to to be employed at night or bad weather and laser guided missiles/bombs aren’t fire and forget capable.
GBU-39 vs Kh-59M? Lol you actually know what the GBU-39 SDB is? Obviously not.
The older KH-59M had no better range than the AGM-130 and new HARMs have easily a similar range to the Kh-31P.

All the chase planes, be it F-18s or F-16s did carry ETs. 😉

Mostly yes, but if I remember right it was said that this F-16 didn’t carry anything external, though it is difficult to believe.

I think both sites have some right arguments.
It isn’t far stretched to assume that the F-35 is more draggy than a clean Rafale or Typhoon for example. It is also obviously that the F-35 is not really optimised for best possible supersonic performance.
It’s however wrong or unwise to assume the F-35 will be an aerodynamical dog and it’s of course also true that external stores on other fighters might result in inferior, equal or just slightly superior performance depending on the platform.
That the F-35 accelerates faster at subsonic speeds than a F-16 is no surprise to me, the aircraft might be a bit more draggy but it also has much more thrust.

The problem is that the Tranche 2 has limited abilities versus a Rafale F3.

Not necessarily. The main problem is the lack of AG munitions, which will be added over time however. T2 examples will benefit from the phase 1 enhancements which should enable the use of PW IV and EGBU-16. GBU-54 is very likely for that timeframe (2011) as well. Other weapons like Storm Shadow, Taurus, Brimstone etc. will follow for these T2 aircraft. The weapons apart I can’t see any advantages for the F3 Rafale.

What does the F-15E have that would compare to the Kh-59ME?

What does it have to compare to the Kh-31P?

AGM-130, AGM-158 being underway.
AGM-88 HARM (AGM-88E AARGM underway and possible option)