SanemKratos Valkyrie pre-series models said to be delivered by the end of the year, 20-30 for the USAF, and another 10 for unspecified clients: https://www.defence24.pl/zamowienie-na-valkyrie-jeszcze-w-tym-roku
FJ33 turbofan is the possible engine (unit cost $44k).
Details are scarce, probably for reasons of security. But I expect hundreds of production series aircraft to be delivered by 2021.
It’s unclear if this is the non-stealthy UTAP-22 or the stealthy Valkyrie, but my guess is they’re basically the same aircraft, just one version is stealthy, which suggests a 70% production line commonality.
Seeing as the basic aircraft is very simple, basically a cruise missile, a single production facility could produce hundreds of aircraft per year, and then offer stealth as an upgrade for a small increase in delivery time and cost.
I imagine the non-stealthy UTAP-22 model could drop in price to as low as $1 million a piece.
SanemThere is a misunderstanding of the complexity of the infrastructure required to effectively operate a fleet of UAVs.
The bottom line is there is no cost saving for the Swiss by switching to UAVs. For simple, routine tasks like air policing, it is more cost effective to buy more manned airplanes.
Not really, the latest UAVs are essentially not much harder or more expensive to field or operate than SAMs or cruise missiles. Switzerland fields plenty such units with minimal effort.
The Houtis proved this just last week, attacking a Saudi oil field. Before that they effectively used Iranian UAVs to take out radars, airports, ships…
If the Houtis with their limited resources can effectively field second rate Iranian drones against a $70 billion budget military supported by the Pentagon, then I’m sure the Swiss can figure it out for a reasonable cost.
The UTAP-22 has the performance and payload to do air policing, and has already flown in formation with a Harrier, proving it can do so safely.
At 2% the cost of any of the manned alternatives considered, it’ll soon be evident that it’s the only game in town.
Edit: Kratos is said to deliver the first 20 to 40 of their product within 6 to 12 months.
SanemYou’re delusional. If voters should block new fighters, the Hornets will either have to soldier on or the AF will have to exit the fighter business.
if the Swiss people keep rejecting a new fighter purchase (why wouldn’t they, they are surrounded by very powerful close allies, they’re not worried about invasions), then Switzerland will end up with an obsolete air force until at least 2030
but if the military can buy a fleet of UCAVs at a fraction of the price to fulfill the intercept role at a fraction of the operational cost, I imagine the Swiss people would be willing to support that, it’s not that different from buying missiles
100 UTAP-22s would cost $200 million, even with (minimal) training and support equipment cost that’ll be a fraction of the $8 billion needed for a manned fighter purchase
that’s 100 reusable cruise missile that can do recon, drop bombs, escort air intruders
or if you put Stingers or Sidewinders on there, they’ll pose a serious threat to any aircraft, if only because they can be launched from literally anywhere and don’t use radar, making them very hard to see coming, like a SAM
in addition as technological evolution speeds up, it’ll be possible to upgrade even obsolete F-18 and F-5 at fraction of the cost with the latest technology and weapons
for example the Marines are upgrading their F-18Cs with AESA radars (for about $3 million each), as well as extending their service life, meant to keep them operationally relevant until 2030: https://www.military.com/defensetech/2019/01/22/marines-classic-hornet-jets-get-upgraded-radar.html
alternatively there’s the Malaysian upgrade program for about $2 million per F-18 that’s said to put them on par with the F-18E/F: https://www.nst.com.my/news/exclusive/2017/07/260429/more-lethal-sting-rmafs-hornets
$5 million to get $70 million worth of ability for 10 years is a good deal
Why would the Swiss AF get UCAVs if it can’t have fighters? Why would the Swiss public be ok with UCAVs, but not ok with fighters? These wouldn’t be some cheap recce drones.
the UTAP-22 would cost as little as $2 million, essentially flies itself (so minimal cost for pilot training and ground control station) and has a flight envelope similar to an F-16 without an afterburner
payload is small but still enough for a pair of SDBs or Sidewinders, which also makes sales much easier legally speaking (they’ve been pre-approved by Congress to all major US allies) so delivery could take place as soon as next year probably (if there’s room in Kratos’ production schedule, the USAF probably ordered a few hundred already)
SanemWell we might see revival of STOVL aircraft as new UCAV designs mature.
DARPA and the USN planned to have Tern, a prop tailsitter demonstrator, flying by late 2018. But the USN took over the program and has gone quiet since then.
The USN is now also looking to field larger drones and cranes that can launch and catch drones, so there might be possibilities there too.
But the most interesting and mature design is probably the UTAP-22, which is essentially an upgraded BQM-167A, meaning it’s a proven platform.
Production is said to start this year, and Kratos has been given approval to export them to close allies.
This system could VTOL an aircraft that can fly out 1600 miles at 50,000 feet and Mach 0.9 with a small but deadly payload.
This means that any ship with even a small helipad can launch and recover these for as little as $2 million a piece.
Possible payloads would include:
– 1 SDB + 4 Hellfires
– 6 Hellfires
– 1 AMRAAM + 4 Stingers
– 2 Sidewinders + 4 Stingers
– 16 Stingers
– 2 R-73 + 2 R-60
– 7 R-60
I mention the Russian missiles because India has already shown interesting to buy the Avenger UCAV, and is also looking to find a way to increase its naval force projection.
With their current need to update their forces to balance Pakistan and China, they’d be a strong potential user of such aircraft.
They could also be launched close to border area’s for example, anywhere a truck can reach really.
Sanemer, it’s part of a pilot’s formation, for one, and secondly making a drone capable of fighter aircraft performance, and equipped to handle such situations means making a fighter aircraft with serious upgrade in computing power on board.. it’s cheaper to buy fighter aircraft as such… 😉
Boeing flew UCAVs in autonomous formation back in 2005, China is preparing to field drones in swarms, so yes you can let them operate independently.
For air combat there was a computer program a few years ago that trashed human pilots in simulated dog fights, running off a low end pc, so computing power isn’t much of an issue either.
Not that you need to, the USAF fired a Stinger missile from a Predator at an Iraqi Mig-25 back in 2002, so the UCAV can wait for the order to engage. Just like a human fighter pilot who would not open fire, especially over a potentially populated area, without express orders from ground controllers.
UTAP-22 is not on the list for evaluation so to me it is not relevant.
The F-35 wasn’t on the previous list, it is now.
If the Swiss people block the proposed purchase again (I don’t see why they wouldn’t, not much has changed), then going for a cheaper UCAV option might actually be the only way to upgrade the Swiss Air Force.
Sanemsame question as for switzerland’s thread: how do you do your main job, which consists of air policing and assistance with it?
as I replied there: with much greater effectiveness, and at a fraction of the cost
Sanemokay but.. how do you intercept a liner or a light aircraft that has communications problem, or something along the lines of “I need help!”, hummm? ^^
air policing and assistance is 99% of operational job of every european nations air force…
well right now the suggestion is to send two manned jets, probably worth about $150+ million to that job. and if for whatever reason you can’t send them up within 5 minutes, you’re putting lives and national security at risk
by contrast UTAP-22 is so cheap and simple that you can have loads of them stationed all over the country, read to be launched at the push of a button
so cost wise, we’re talking $4 million guaranteed effectiveness vs $150 million if the pilots didn’t get food poisoning overkill
also from a strategic viewpoint it’s easy to overload such an expensive system, send in one “lost” aircraft to draw off these jets while the real drug smuggler/suicide bomber aircraft makes his run
as for actually helping lost aircraft, I doubt most pilots are fluent in sign language, so most of this is limited wobbling your wingtips as a sign to follow me, something a drone can do perfectly well
more interestingly you can probably easily put a neon sign on a drone that allows you to communicate clearly in 50 languages. bolting that onto a $80 million jet seems less practical, and fighter pilots certainly won’t think it’s very sexy
in the 1% that these drones might not suffice, you can still keep a handful of manned jets for emergencies. but even then a cheap UTAP-22 can still carry an impressive array of short and even a few long range missiles, if that doesn’t suffice I’m not sure a manned jet will fare much better, but is a much more valuable asset to lose to… euhm… I don’t know, who would actually invade Swiss air space? does Lichtenstein have any ambitions of military conquest, and do they have a fleet of Su-57s?
SanemFinland should get together with Switzerland and order 100 UTAP-22s at just $2 million each. They can launch and recover from pretty much any location, meaning they’d be next to impossible to take out in a surprise attack.
After fighting starts they can be launched from forward operating bases, be it a small bunker, a truck or a small ship, and then land at a different location for recovery. This forward location also makes them great for launching surprise attacks of their own against enemy forces, be it in the air (a UTAP could carry 2 Sidewinder plus 6 Stinger missiles), ground or sea, as well as being great for ISR, ECM and SEAD missions.
SanemSwitzerland should include the UTAP-22 in the competition, it would be way more fitting for their needs, being cheap and compact enough to launch from pretty much any base without the need for a landing strip. Give it a pair of Sidewinders (or if you can get something in R-60 class you can hang one on each wingtip) and a gunpod, and a handful of these could intercept any intruder in a matter of minutes 24/7, like reusable SAMs. It can also do ISR and ground attack to great effect, like reusable cruise missiles. At $2 million each Switzerland could field a hundred for the price of a few manned jets.
Edit: I forgot Switzerland has the Stinger, they can hang a few of those off the UTAP-22, being small and light yet giving it enough punch to be taken seriously.
SanemFirst Flight of the Valkyrie – a Step Closer to Manned-Unmanned Flying Formations
a few years ago on this forum I predicted that by early 2020 many air forces around the world be deploying small jet UCAVs at a cost of just a few $ million, optionally stealth, with STOVL capability, and a usable payload. everyone told me I was crazy, that no one was working on such a design, so surely it couldn’t be ready by then
SanemBelgian Navy tests Austrian copter drone for at-sea surveillance
Small anecdote on the Belgian military and drones:
Recently the Belgian military wanted to practice its anti-drone tactics, so it gave many thousands of Euro’s to a Belgian university to get them some drones.
The funny thing is the budget was way to big for the number and type of drones requested, so they overpaid several times.
Which suggests that whoever is in command has no clue of what they’re doing, or maybe there’s some political reason.
Which reminds me of when the Flemish government (a Belgian sub-government) invested 11 million Euro in 2005 to develop and purchase the Qinetiq Zephyr, a solar powered HALE UAV. I don’t know how it ended, but deliveries never took place in Belgium, while the UK has bought several since 2016, at £4.3 million a piece. These are essentially micro-satellites.
SanemUnlike Boeing, Lockheed Martin has opted not to construct a prototype until a contract has been awarded. However, Rob Weiss, outgoing head of Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, said the company is “prepared to move into an accelerated program for the development phase.”
I’m actually wondering if the reason for this might be that LMT already has classified UCAVs in service with the USAF, and will offer a navalized version to the USN if they want them
the early design they pitched does remind me a lot of the RQ-170
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SanemSanemIf the equipment and the personnel who used it, were there because the governament ordered them to, there is little doubt that russia is to blame.
Ukraine had the same equipment and personnel
edit:
That’s silly. If a ruler orders an invasion, is he not liable for any of the deaths unless he personally orders them, incident by incident?
Bush Sr, Bush Jr and Obama have seen hundreds of thousands of innocent people killed while they were in office
yet no one is accusing them of mass murder, or cutting economic ties with the US
Guys, this is a thread about F-16 in Belgium. Let’s not let this thread being hijacked.
you’re right
but it’s a thread about the future of the Belgian air component, and what to equip it with next
that directly relates to the threats posed to Belgium
which unfortunately includes the geopolitical situation
I’d argue war is always a result of politics
if Russia were about to invade Belgium, I’d be arguing for F-22’s and nukes
SanemSorry Sanem, I refuse to engage in any discussion until I am shown evidence of the absurd claims you have made in the past.
all I’m saying is that an oversized RC propeller plane costs only a fraction of an F-35, but for a lot of missions gives similar or better performance
the fact that Belgium is already looking to buy some Reapers with money that could be used on the F-35 shows that at least some generals agree with that logic
and that a small jet engine aircraft wouldn’t cost much more. a Honda Jet costs less than $5 million
or that a jet engine aircraft with the dimensions and half the payload capacity of a cruise missile would cost about the same as a cruise missile
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17 July 2014
not unless Putin personally ordered the aircraft to be shot down
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