The fly-away price of the F-35A is $94.5 Million but I chose not to use that but to focus on what actual customers are paying for the entire package (per unit).

well if you want to calculate it per unit, an F-35 can only be on station at a single location for what, 30 minutes to an hour per mission before it has to return to base? assuming worst case scenario and you only get 4 Reapers for the cost of an F-35, they usually are on station up to 12 hours per mission. that’s 48 hours vs 1 hour

add to that the risk of the F-35 crashing (seeing as it’s such new technology, and what we saw with the F-22, that seems likely), then the single loss of an F-35 means operational time goes to zero, while one crashed Reaper means you still get 36 hours of operational time, and getting a replacement will cost you say $15 million

And of course, for a prospective customer, the Reaper, armed or unarmed, can only do a fraction of the missions a strike fighter can.

this is assuming you’re doing operations that the Reaper is good at, like bombing targets and recon. but that happens to be pretty much all of Belgium’s real operational missions in the last few decades, and probably before that. seeing as Belgium only ever operates within NATO, it makes sense that would we focus on recon and precision strikes, if all our allies insist on buying high end fighter jets. Russia already can’t match most European nations in the air, what do we need all this high end combat aircraft for? in case aliens invade?

I honestly, cannot believe that we are having to use up bandwidth to discuss a totally absurd claim of a $15 Million Predator-C.

ok, then discuss the UT-22 which will cost as little as $2 million each and is being ordered by the USAF. why shouldn’t Belgium buy those instead of more F-35’s? the USAF seems to think it’s a force multiplier, and cheap as bones, why the hell isn’t Belgium getting them then?

Yeah, no way in hell a Pred-C is $15 mil using ANY kind of calculation.

why not. Boeing made the same estimate in early 2000 for the X-45. it’s made mostly from off the shelf parts, using proven technology that has long been paid off, namely the software. the UT-22 will have performance not much lower than an Avenger, for just $2 million

Sanen saw a video in youtube… Thats conclusive…

of my countrymen being shot at while fighting Al-Qaeda yes. years before AQ offspring bombed our capital
our soldiers didn’t even have enough bullets to engage the enemy effectively
so excuse me for not wanting to pay $100 million for an aircraft that can’t actually do much against insurgents

Can the Reaper do the QRA and the Baltic Police missions, yes or no?

do tell me, how many Belgians has Russia killed recently?
you guys may be arm chairing this discussion, but to me the difference between playing tag over the Baltic or actually fighting the people responsible for the death and murder of innocent Belgians is serious
to fight ISIS Belgium needs Reapers, or any other COIN aircraft for all I care
not our F-16s that are already too expensive and valuable to be fielded in any serious numbers, and certainly not gold plated F-35s that will just cost more and do less

What the hell has your question to do with the UTAP22 capability (or lack of it…) to do any of the missions that were described in the RFP?

because the BAF generals are more concerned with their future career as LMT consultants than actually looking at viable options
but I doubt they’re the only ones there. the Dutch Air Force general must have had his phone on LMT speed dial when answering any questions, rather than having any real knowledge when he pushed to go for the F-35

A Reaper type would have been a much better option for QRA and the Baltic Air Police Operation?

I saw video’s of Belgian troops in Afghanistan under fire. they were very happy to see the USAF show up
but if Belgium had been operating Reapers, they could have had their own instant fire support, better and cheaper than an F-16 can do it, and certainly an F-35
Air Forces don’t like to fight ground wars, but those are the wars they’ve been fighting exclusively for the last decades, and will likely keep fighting

And offcourse that a fleet of UTAP-22 would be able to do the missions that the Belgian Air component have described in their RFP?

the Belgian Air component that supposedly asked LMT to stop offering them life extension estimates on the F-16?
the Generals who will have to sack their pilots or demote them to remotely flying toy aircraft?

a few years ago I didn’t know about the UATP-22, I’m doubtful the BAF did
yet now the USAF is looking to introduce them quickly as wingmen for its most advanced aircraft
if the USAF thinks it’s a good idea, then yes perhaps the BAF should at least look into it, and see how this new technology might alter their operational needs for the F-35

again, I predicted this would happen several years ago
now it’s happening, and people still refuse to see the obvious
maybe I’m wrong, they’ve killed such innovative and money saving programs before (J-UCAS was supposed to deliver a functional UCAV by what, 2010?)
but I think this one is here to stay

Yeah, what BIO was showing Sanem (and what should be obvious) is that the weapon system cost for the MQ-9 (or any ground control UAV) is high. The individual MQ-9 are relatively cheap (15-20 million), but they are useless without the control stations, comms and guidance systems, and the various sensor payloads.

exactly my point, there is a difference between the cost of an aircraft and all the stuff that comes with it, from control systems to spares, logistics, payloads, weapons…

for example the F-35 will force some European countries to build brand new aircraft bunkers because they’re too big to fit
nor will they be able to deploy them in a number of scenario’s because the technology is too valuable to risk losing over enemy territory, or in certain missions
these are hidden costs of the weapon that need to be taken into consideration

the fact is that for most of the missions that Belgium has been executing in recent decades, a Reaper type UAV would have been a much better and cheaper option than say an F-35, both as a weapon system and as an individual aircraft

and now that something like a UTAP-22 is coming in as a reusable cruise missile for $2 million, you can easily buy dozens of these for the cost of a single F-35, and they’ll do the job better at a fraction of the operational cost

edit: UTAP-22 has been cleared to foreign sales
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/kratos-mako-drone-approved-for-sale-to-foreign-mili-446822/

No the UTAP-22 does not carry a “few SDBs or more “.

ah good point it seems that’s XQ-222, which will be based on the UTAP-22
it’ll cost $2 million, carry at least 2 SDBs and be stealthy. so actually better than I thought
first flight expected to be soon

actually they’re not saying how the UTAP-22 will be used exactly, beyond this: “Superior maneuverability and payload versatility are key features that make the UTAP-22 the ultimate wingman for high-performance manned/unmanned teaming operations in contested airspace.”

a super-maneuverable wingman for contested air space with payload versatility
that sounds a lot like it’ll be used for dogfighting
it makes sense as the Navy propose to turn the UCLASS into a missile truck, and they’re also the ones testing the UTAP-22

anyone know what its payload capacity will be?
a AIM-9x missile weighs about 85 kg, I’m guessing it’ll be able to carry one at least
pretty interesting for air superiority roles, they can fly patrols with their single missile, using the missile’s sensor for detecting targets and then relaying that info back to the operator through the Makos’ communication systems
and because they’re cheap, you can field a lot of them and saturate the area with aircraft carrying an advanced sensor on its weapon, so there’s no need to carry an additional sensor
and you can also fly them right up to a potential enemy, as the risk is negligible. you don’t want to fly an F-35 close to a potentially hostile Su-35

plus the Navy can launch these off pretty much any of its ships, meaning all their ships now become aircraft carriers
also something I predicted a long time ago, although I thought they would be tailsitters rather than JATO and parachute recovery, but whatever works

if that works, it would be a pretty good trade in cost/effectiveness compared to manned platforms for sure

FMS Reaper System Unit costs runs b/w $40 – $90 Million..How will anyone acquire the Avenger for $15 Million per Unit?

I think you’re confusing a unit of multiple aircraft with one aircraft cost (which is about $15 million for a Reaper?)
the reports state that India is buying 100 aircraft, not units
so I don’t know how much a unit would cost or how many aircraft would be in it, if they use that system at all

but yes AIG stated that a Predator C would cost $15 million (edit: $12-15 million is the quoted number)
compared to a stealthy XQ-222 for $2 million but comparable flight performance, I guess that cost is mostly in payload capacity, but it does start to sound expensive

so yes you can get 10 Predator C aircraft for the price of 1 F-35 aircraft
or about 70 XQ-222’s, so I’d go with a mix of 10:1 XQ-222’s per Predator C myself, and a handful of manned aircraft to act as forward drone controllers, preferably a two seater, or with a computer that flies the aircraft so the human can focus on the mission

The consequences of a jammed downlink, limited bandwith, would be the stuff of nightmares. A pilot can make decisions based on training and rationalize when to pull, or not pull the trigger.

as I’ve argued in the past, self driving cars can now differentiate between cars, bikes, pedestrians, dogs… with both visual sensors, lidar and radar. today they can even predict what they’ll do. compared to that, detecting, tracking and engaging a handful of aircraft (with a limited number of types out there, making it easy to train an AI to recognize them easily) is child’s play

and the USAF has already developed computer programs that’ll beat any human pilot, running on an outdated computer
meaning AI already has the ability to recognize aircraft and analyze situations, and the software to fight them at a superhuman level, without any human supervision

and jamming would mess up an F-35 or any missile equally bad

A human should always be in the loop when making the decision to end other human’s life.

in 1967 Israel attacked the USS Liberty. they attacked it for hours
afterwards the it was revealed that the Israeli Mirage pilots initially refused to attack the ship, saying it was obviously American
they were ordered to attack anyway and did so, supposedly under threat of court marshal

so yes a human might hesitate to do something obviously wrong
but the whole point of a soldier is to execute orders without hesitation
so having a human in the loop becomes kind of pointless

whomever shot down MH17 over Ukraine was human
if it was an accident, an AI would have more likely sensed its target wasn’t a military craft and at least confirmed with its operator before executing the attack

nor do the pilots who bombed Raqqa or Aleppo have much control in the decision I think
they dropped their bombs as they were told to do, and hoped they wouldn’t hit any civilians

like the UK will be pressured by the US to stick to a recon model, as not to compete with the F-35, it’s what we saw with the UCLASS program. which is absurd, considering the tactical and strategic abilities such a platform would bring, and the huge success of armed UAVs being used by the UK and France as it is

France however doesn’t have the F-35 option and thus its political pressure, and has both the need and the will to go at it alone. I wouldn’t be surprised if this cooperation was a political move by the UK to delay the French program

there’s a cheap and simple solution to this entire discussion: equip bombs with radio controlled steering fins and the computer will guide them towards a target like a UAV. all the computer needs to know is the bomb and target location and it’ll do the rest, target movement will be all but irrelevant

not affected by weather or night, only radio jammers are a threat, but I doubt ISIS or AQ have those or can deploy them effectively

DARPA robot lands (simulated) Boeing 737