It’s not a SAAB design though is it

actually, they have 25% of development, including “overall design” :highly_amused:

Whats stopping sweden developing something similar? The Predator C is in service, and would most likely be replaced by something that is more capable and advanced, expect something similar to the X47C being tested as reported by Flight global….

Saab has plenty of UAV experience and is fully invested in the nEuron program

http://img496.imageshack.us/img496/7817/saabpiclq8ne.jpg

how much does a UAV cost, compared to manned platforms?

here’s a recent article on the inner workings of an MC-12W
I was surprised to see that an MC-12W has a crew of 4 compared to 2 for a Reaper UAV
I figured that should make a UAV a cheaper investment so I looked into it and found the following

MC-12W price: $17 million
MQ-9 price: $16.9 million
a civilian C-12 costs $6 million, but considering the cost of new equipment and installing it, $17 million seems like a fair price

here’s the weird part:
MC-12W price/flight hour: $6,000
MQ-9 price/flight hour: $8,000

while this site cites $2,500-$3,000 per flight hour for a Predator/Reaper UAV
which seems more accurate: how can a two-engined aircraft, with twice the crew and a limited time in the air be cheaper to operate than an overgrown RC toy aircraft?
what could make a UAV more expensive are its satellite link and weapons load, but both of those make it in many ways superior to the MC-12W, being able to communicate with a variety of sources and ofcourse instantly attack any targets

I’m a little sensitive on the subject ever since they published this bogus report that concluded that a UAV is actually more expensive than say an F-16, which goes to show what stunning results you can achieve with a little creative accounting

Very different operating environment. In the Falklands, one can pick out a sniper by his thermal signature & blow him up, knowing he isn’t a stray local. You can’t do that in Afghanistan.
Now, can we get back to the topic?

one more point for kicks 😉
thermal camouflage

Somebody has suggested the “Land light infantry/special forces secretly” option before and it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

scrunity being a logical and rational approach which I am happy to discuss, rather than resort to name calling like 5 year olds

To land a number of infantry large enough to overwhelm the Garrison and the FIDF secretly from civilian boats without being noticed is virtually impossible. Whilst the Islands are sparsely populated they are not unpopulated! It would take time to build up that infantry force and they would have to stay hidden or the game is up, they would have minimal food and water, no back up, no heavy equipment and no air cover. How do they get from wherever they land to MPA and Stanley? Do they walk? FIDF and the Garrison with air cover would eat them up. Drive? That’s heavy equipment which has to be got there in the first place and supported, anything driving down the roads would be rapidly destroyed. Helicopters? No air cover!

well if you go in at night and overpower any locals you might encounter before they can raise the alarm, it could work. using jammers and cutting any traditional lines would also help a lot

I’m not suggesting you land a large force at once at a single location, I’d spread them out, start by infiltrating small teams that hide out (being professional soldiers I imagine they’ve have some amount of training in doing exactly that). I’d even send in people as tourists, dress up your soldiers like civilians and UK army personel…

then I’d get some good distractions. something like a sinking ship or an explosion on the island, far away from the garrisons, the UK would instantly respond by sending its people over there to provide aid, leaving the bases exposed and in chaos. and send in “lost” aircraft to draw the Typhoons out, it’s hard to provide air support when you’re far away and will be out of fuel by the time you get back. not that Typhoons would be of much help, I doubt they’re usually equiped with ground amunitions that they can use in a populated area, and cannon attacks are dangerous because of manpads. other than that the UK doesn’t have much air power on the island, Sea Kings certainly won’t help much

So back to walking! They have to traverse the Islands without being noticed and then take on an entrenched Garrison that has better local knowledge and air cover. Those Argentine troops would be noticed. The Garrison and FIDF would get to work on them and a few hours later the first reinforcements from the UK arrive on the C17.
It is an absurd idea!

as I pointed out, the most absurd tactics usually turn out to be the most potent ones 🙂
it’s exactly because it’s absurd that it might work. if the UK took it serious, they’d just install automated sensor across the island and inspect any civlian ships that get close. but they don’t, because that costs money and “it’s an absurd idea” anyway 😉

the Iraqi invasion of Kuweit was absurd, the German conquest of Europe in a matter of weeks was absurd, the US sending a kill team into Pakistan was absurd… which is why these operations worked, because the other guy was too dumb to consider it a possibility and thus let his guard down

]Thousands of soldiers were landed from naval landing ships, part of a large naval force which had been under air attack by Argentina for some time before the landings. Civilian vessels were used for transport, not landings.

You can land a small force secretly, & they may be able to sneak around. But they can’t defeat the garrison. To conquer the islands, you need too big & well-equipped a force to keep it secret.

which is why I’d make it a surprise invasion. take over a cruise liner or a ferry, replace the tourists with soldiers and just sail into a main port at the same time as inflitration teams attack communications, SAM sites and the airport

and before you tell me it can’t be done, SAS teams employed such hit-and-run tactics against Rommel, catching the Germans by surprise, probably because they thought the idea was “absurd”, and more recently a handful of Afghanistans managed to sneak onto an American base and destroy 6 Harriers

]The infantry who took Belgian forts in WW2 were supported by heavy artillery & aircraft, had good logistic support, & were part of a millions-strong army which was all on the same continent, connected by good roads, railways, etc. The British who re-took the Falklands in 1982 had air support, artillery, some light armour, ships offshore shelling the Argentineans when possible, & control of the sea around the islands. Those precedents do not support your argument.

I’m talking about the German paratroopers who attacked forts deep inside Belgium. they faced superior forces, but managed to take out the fortresses, capture the bridges and hold out until the relief force arrived. they had no heavy artillery, and no or limited air support. modern day infantry weapons like missile launchers and light mortars reduce the necessity for either, if you can afford them, and it’ll be certainly be a lot cheaper than buying new aircraft. and I doubt the English have heavy artillery, tanks or even air support ready to repel an Argentinian raid, or even any way of countering snipers (equiped with semi-automatics, silencers and night scopes). probably because the mere idea is “absurd”

edit:

So you have an airliner on filled with Argentinian special forces faking an emergency and landing in the RAF airport, while at the same time a few civilian boats here and there unload their commandos in strategic places and a swarm of ground hugging F1s make pre-planned strikes guided by the latest updates of the R99s.
Paradrops from a few innocent looking airliners modified to drop paratroops plus air assault with the fleet of Il76s would allow to bring in enough troops to seize the main strategic places. Then you move in your stock of exocets & a squadron of Mirage F1 & a few P99s.

exactly. and once you take out the Typhoons, the UK won’t have any air power nearby. C-17’s would have to fly in unsupported and would be defenceless even against something like F1’s

nothing wrong with Kirchner..
look at this mamacita

good call 😉
but then most women looked (somewhat) attractive when they were young, who wants to image google young Queen Elizabeth or Mother Teresa? :love-struck:

Like it or not, The Falklands is an issue.
With this in mind, some Su-27xx/Su-30xx or hatever derivitives. One of Argentinas primary problems in 1982 was that it’s planes were operating at the extreme end of their range, allowing very little leeway for anything really when over the combat zone.
The Su-30 is ideal for this, with massive internal fuel capacity. I would ensure a retractable refuelling probe came with the deal.
24 – 28 aircraft, or 2 squadrons worth.

agreed, with its range, power, skills (big radar, anti-ship missiles), and guaranteed future market support (upgrades, spare parts), the Su-30 would be my first choice for Argentina. two engines and two crew further increase usefulness and survivability
also Venezuela operates them as well and is an economic partner, that should give some extra advantages

Western fighter would be hard to get, even a Brazilian made Rafale
sea patrol would be great
although as always I strongly advocate UAVs, their low cost and endurance makes them great for patrolling important area’s and don’t risk big crews over water. Israel should be willing enough to sell them, Brazil has them already

1, forget the Malvinas – the population has voted to stay British. Even if you can evade, the consequences would cripple the country. If you want to gain from the riches hidden in the sea, co-operate with the Brits to find and exploit them. Workers, equipment, trade all could go through Argentina.

I agree with 2-5
and 1 also, there’s no way Argentina could invade them today. that said the UK is on the fast track to becoming a third world country, and when it no longer has the money to defend the Falklands they’ll be easy picking for Argentina, and that oil will be a fat prize

but I believe the best strategy for Argentina is not to upgrade its air force, or even increase its military spending. as most equipment would be imported and military power is inherently unproductive, it would cost a lot and give little, and would also provoke a bigger military UK presence on the Falklands. on the other hand Argentina has few enemies to worry about, drug gangs are extremely difficult and expensive to counter (as Mexico and Colombia show) and require very different types of equipment (UAVs, a super-human police force), and the Falklands can’t be taken even if there wasn’t a small UK contigent that would force huge losses, after which reserves will quickly be brought in

no, better for Argentina to focus on fixing its economy and waiting for the right time
and if they did want to take the Falklands, they’d be better off infiltrating light infantry to swarm the English soldiers by surprise, sidestepping the Typhoons as well as any ships and submarines completely

or if you do need to attack the Typhoons in the air, you draw them into range of some ship mounted SAMs, kind of like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JNRCCjZImc

even with rapid prototyping, how low could the cost be?

a Predator costs $4 million
a new TF34-GE-400 is about $2 million, but I imagine they can use spare ones from scrapped A-10s or S-3s, or the TFE731 from any number of business jets
computer hardware and autonomous mission software should be easy and cheap enough to aquire, especially the flight software, once developed, could be copied from pretty much any UAV (Global Hawk comes to mind, or whatever they developed for the Polecat). the same goes for the sensors and communications system
the Avenger C is said to be in the $15 million range, which is little more than the $10 million for the Reaper, considering the stealth and use of a jet engine

if you could seriously reduce production costs, through possibly 3D printing and composites, I guess $6 million might actually be feasable
especially if they built 251 units R&D costs would be dirt cheap
moreso because it’s not weaponised, that should further lower costs

here’s an interesting article on composites:
http://www.compositesworld.com/articles/composites-combat-ready-in-ucavs

Composites played a critical role in rapid prototyping, as Scaled used Advanced Composites Group’s LTM45 room-temperature-cure carbon/epoxy exclusively throughout the vehicle’s structure. “We didn’t autoclave anything,” recalls Rihn. “We designed around room-temperature-cure strength capability for fast manufacture.” As a result, concept development to first flight took only 12 months. To speed production and enhance low observability, the upper and lower skins of the Pegasus each were made in two halves. Scaled’s expertise in one-off fabrication enabled the team to machine the large molds for the skin halves very quickly.

here’s a video on the X-45A construction:
http://archive.org/details/x45a-construction

and as an example of how technological innovation can further cut price, a video on the BAe Daemon, where air flow is used instead of traditional flaps, reducing costs and failures:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJs8elFbNBo

two points:

– UAVs and UCAVs, these have the potential to be game changers, because they bring (expendable) numbers back into the game. neither have been used in peer conflicts, but they’ve proven their war in lob-sided wars and intelligence (RQ-170) for years now

– China has no interest in all out war with its major trade partners, nor in collonialism. it has ignored most of its neighbours for milenia, and been invaded by pretty much everyone. at most it’ll try to keep safe its direct environement, but will prefer to do so with diplomacy or economics rather than military force. contrary to the US, which has NEVER been invaded by a foreign power and has probably agressively attacked more countries than anyone else, except maybe the USSR

in that light it’s likely that China is looking into relatively low cost/high yield research that give it an edge in the long run for the money invested. there is little to gain from investing in a large and extremely expensive stealth fighter force that has otherwise little actual use for China. other than to provoke its economic adversaries to do just that, wasting valuable economic resources