I wonder if the Polish feel the same way as western Europe? And can’t tell if its arrogance or naivety sweeping throughout western Europe. But maybe if you didnt have a babysitter you would care more.

Finland and Poland are few European countries what still take conventional warfare capabilities seriously instead of making army what is more suitable in fighting third world hell holes like so many others (Denmark & Sweden for example) have done. Problem is that even now after all the huffing and puffing from Russia many leaders in Europe are walking around with the “peace in our time” attitude… just take a look how small tank forces large European countries have.

Baltic states are eager to defend themselves but they don’t really have money to do so.

I’m sure Finland would love to go out and buy New toys.
Problem is, they cant afford anything, let alone rafale, EF, F-35 etc etc

So what’s the road ahead?

Beef up Anti Air systems!

In theory Finland didn’t have money to buy F-18’s. They are already looking to use 6-10 billion euros on this deal and funds will be secured so LM doesn’t have to worry about that.

There is alot to gain from having tense situation with Finland. It may invite US to area. The more US military is spread around at places. The bigger is US military budget and bigger budget need more dollar printing. thats very good for Russia commodities and in future even water export will be commodity.
Soviet Union was not powerfull than Russia. SU has big numbers but much lower paid, trained and short range, short life systems. that make war very expensive.
Russia military production is much higher quality and increasing at much higher pace than any one else.

infact from Arctic to all the way to Middleast Russia airdefence system will dot the planet. with increase in size and upgrades in Ruaf at much higher rate and much more in range capability. it will be very easy to fight two simultneous war in EU and Middleast. This so called Finns will not last even few hours even today let alone in future date. and there there not few Flankers. There are 60 Su-34 now with 50% more payload than Flanker.

Typical “Russia strong” response. Russia had to sacrifice hundreds of KIA’s in Ukraine to take small airport from poorly armed Ukrainian volunteers and people should be awed by that? So called Finns?

Anyhow, that’s a lot of praise for country what’s fighters have traditionally been target practice for western fighters.

The Gripen makes the most sense. There is the possibility of local production, technology transfer, and a common support model. It is really tough to justify the F-35’s huge cost. Under what circumstances would the Finns find themselves facing an S-400? Are the Russians going to place them on the border so that their RADAR coverage extends into Finland? 100-150 million per example is hard to justify for that reason alone. Especially for an aircraft that is near IOC, but not capable of fulfilling all of its intended roles. Finland is not going to invade Russia. The U.S. and NATO would get involved long before the opposite would happen (when is there a conflict the U.S. does stay out of?).

What huge cost of F-35? It’s price is only going down and it’s already cheaper than Eurofighter or Rafale. Qutar paid over 6 billion euros billion from 24 Rafales.

When Finland buys F-35 it will be more mature and it’s not yesterdays fighter like the others.

Finnish state broadcasting corporations news piece… “F-35 has a strong change to become Hornet replacement”.
http://yle.fi/uutiset/nakokulma_f-35_vahvoilla_hornetin_seuraajaksi/8067431

Ending phrase is… “F-35 is pushing…”

I doubt they are buying the Gripen E/F. Report talked a lot about benefits of stealth and how it allows fighters to minimize enemy’s SAM weapon threat.

At present, the Finnish Air Force has 62 of the American-made F-18 Hornet jet fighters. Several different aircraft are initially being looked at as replacements.

A working group report turned over to Defense Minister Jussi Niinistö proposes that the Hornets, which will reach the end of their lifecycle in 2030, be replaced by new multirole combat jets.

A decision on the choice of aircraft and their acquisition for the Air Force is likely be made sometime during the term of the next parliament.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/first_steps_towards_new_combat_aircraft_purchase/8066917

Helsingin Sanomat gives more information.
http://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/a1433989440786

– Requests for different manufacturers will be send between 2017-2018

– Winner is going to be chosen in 2021

– Finnish defense requires multirole fighters.

– How many fighters Finland needs to replace Hornets hasn’t been made but the current number has served Finnish needs very well.

– All western fighters (Gripen, Rafale, Eurofighter, F-35) are seen as potential choices and govt is looking in what condition (maturity and serial production aspects) each fighters is in 2021. According to defense minister Russian fighters are out question as long Russia is under sanctions (and probably after that).

– How much money is going to be used is not known but estimations range between 6-10 billion euros.

Full report here. Use google translator since only summary is in English.

The primary purpose of Finland’s defence capability is to establish deterrence against the use of military force as well as the threat thereof, and to repel attacks on Finland. Finland’s geopolitical standing and the changes in its operating environment emphasise the importance of maintaining and developing the defence capability. The goal is to maintain a defence capability that meets the requirements of the operating environment and the tasks of the Defence Forces. Defence cooperation is increasingly important in maintaining and developing the defence capability. A modern air power and air defence system is a key element in Finland’s defence capability.

The Hornet fleet’s capabilities are a major component of the air defence and of the Defence Forces’ capability in engaging land and sea-based targets. Furthermore, the Hornet fleet’s capabilities supplement the Defence Forces’ integrated intelligence, surveillance and command environment. Developments in the operating environment, the changing concepts of war and battle as well as the tasks of the Defence Forces, the Air Force and the air defence necessitate that the capabilities of the Hornet fighter fleet be replaced by the end of the next decade. The planned service life of the Hornet fleet will end by 2025– 2030. There are three major factors that limit the service life of the fleet: weakening comparative capabilities, structural fatigue and challenges in obtaining system support for the aircraft. Substantial additional costs would be incurred should the service life of the Hornet fleet be extended. Moreover, this would not provide additional options for replacing its capabilities. Extending the service life of the Hornet fleet is neither a cost-effective solution nor would it be sufficient in terms of Finland’s defence. It is impossible to substitute ground-based air defence systems or the current, or future, unmanned aerial vehicles for the Hornet fleet’s capabilities.

Both of the aforementioned systems encompass but a part of the Hornet fleet’s capabilities. In order to maintain defensive deterrence the Hornet fleet’s capabilities must be replaced with a system based on a multi-role fighter starting from 2025. The project for replacing the capabilities (HX project) must be launched in the autumn of 2015 at the very latest. Project-related decisions associated with Requests for Information and Requests for Quotation must be taken during the electoral term of 2015– 2019. The decision to procure new multi-role fighters must be taken in the early 2020s. It is not possible to replace the capabilities of the Hornet fleet within the framework of current defence budget levels. Rather, separate financing must be earmarked for the project. Replacing the capabilities of the Hornet fleet is a strategic project which is of crucial importance to Finland’s defence system. In order to properly guide the planning and implementation of the project an HX steering group, reporting to the Ministry of Defence as well as an HX programme coordination group which reports to the steering group and coordinates the planning and implementation of the project, must be set up. Other than this, the planning and implementation of the capability replacement project will be carried out in accordance with the Defence Forces’ standards. Replacing the capabilities of the Hornet fighter fleet significantly impacts Finland’s security and defence policy standing, and widely affects Finland’s bilateral relations.

On the basis of the preliminary assessment the working group proposes the following as regards the implementation of the project: 1. Adhere to the Hornet fleet’s original service life because, as per the preliminary assessment, there are no grounds for extending its service life. 2. Replace the Hornet’s capabilities with a solution based on a multi-role fighter. 3. Launch the HX programme no later than the autumn of 2015. 4. Set up an HX steering group, an HX programme coordination group and an HX programme secretariat, and establish their tasks, competence and composition. 5. Implement the acquisition process in a normal manner: promulgate the Request for Information in 2016, and the Request for Quotation in 2017–2018. 6. Make use of the derogation of the EU Directive on public contracts, permitted by Article 346 TFEU, because the procurement processes pursuant to the Directive on Defence and Security Procurement are not suitable for this acquisition. 7. Draw up a defence industrial strategy and establish the project-related requirements for an independent capacity and the security of supply. 8. Establish the need and possibilities for external auditing

http://www.defmin.fi/files/3168/Esiselvitys_Hornet-kaluston_suorituskyvyn_korvaamisesta.pdf

Preliminary analysis for Hornet replacement is delivered to MoD in 11.6.2015.
http://valtioneuvosto.fi/artikkeli/-/asset_publisher/hornetien-korvaajahankkeen-esiselvitys-luovutetaan-puolustusministerille-11-6-