The USN’s reduced manning initiatives that they trialled on a few ships are a step in the right direction, but the methodology used in designing the current crop of US warships assumes a level of available manpower that is simply not feasable for many smaller navies.

Redesigning the Burkes for a 40% crew reduction, which is what we are talking about in the AWD, wasn’t really feasable.

Unicorn

Jonesy, the RAN did originally look at the Meko 200’s as ‘Tier 2 ‘ warships, capable of extended patrols in Australia’s vast 200km EEZ, showing the flag exercises, training and such.

They fitted in between the DDG’s and FFGs (Tier 1 capable of operating in a high threat environment) and the Tier 3 Fremantle class boats (basically soverenity patrol, arresting illegal fishing boats and smuggglers, training, etc).

The concept was always suspect, having been foisted onto the RAN by the defence bureacrats. It was supposed that as a threat developed over a number of years the Tier 2 ships could be upgraded.

The killer for the concept was the 1991 Gulf War, when the RAN deployed ships to the Gulf on 36 hours notice. So much for plenty of warning.

Despite the rearguard action of a few ideological opposition politicians and their fellow travellers in the Defence bureacracy, the military realised that the concept of long lead times for threats was a a delusional fantasy.

This led to the continuing upgrade for the Anzacs (Nulka, Harpoon, cabling fitted for Phalanx so that one can be fitted from the RAN CIWS pool as required, improved ESSM and ECCM, improved C4I and possibly the CEA-FAR phased array at a later date).

The result is that the RAN Anzacs are some of the most capable Meko 200s anywhere (the new design Meko 200s are an exception) and they have been forward deployed during operations at the head of the Persian Gulf, including Naval Gunfire Support, during the Second Gulf War.

The future RAN structure is a subject of immense debate in military circles here in Australia.

By the middle of the next decade the RAN will almost certainly look like this.

6 x SSKs (Collins class – with a replacement program underway)
3 x Air Warfare Destroyer (Hobart class – possibly with a follow on order for three more)
2 or 3 upgraded FFGs (Sydney class – with a replacement program underway)
8 x frigates (Anzac class – probably undertaking a mid life upgrade)
14 class patrol boats (Armidale class)
2 x LPA’s (Canberra class)
1 x LST (design as yet not selected but designed for carrying the Army’s heavy vehicles and air cushion landing craft)
2 x AOR (replacing the current AOR and with a second to support extended deployments)
1 x Tanker (Supply class)
2 x Survey (Melville class)
Numerous smaller vessels

The big questions are:

What will replace the FFGs? There is a group within the Navy that argues for a continuing build program of Hobart class AWD to replace the FFGs and leverage off the investment in setting up a construction program here in Australia. The other alternatives are looking like a European design modified to incorporate US weapons and sensors for compatibility with the AWDs and for operations with the USN.

What will replace the Collins class? There is unlikely to be a constituency for a switch to nuclear power, so look for another big SSK design, almost certainly incorporating an AIP system.

What will supplement the Armidale’s in deep ocean surveillance of Australia’s EEZ, particularly around the Antarctic territories? One possibility is a follow on to the New Zealand 85m Project Protector OPV being built by Tenix. The waters down in the Great Southern Ocean, particularly in winter, are way too harsh for most modern warships, with their fine lines and emphasis on speed. Every time the RAN has had to send an FFG or Anzac down there they have come back damaged, sometimes heavily. The Kiwi’s intend taking their OPVs down there and the RAN will be watching closely.

What will replace HMAS Tobruk as the Navy’s LST? The LPA’s will be good but not set up for delivering significant lodgements of heavy vehicles from ship to shore. The likely design will incorporate space for at least 4 LCAC-type landing craft and significant lane space for at least two squadrons of M1 tanks and LAV and associated support vehicles, which are not really suitably accomodated on board the LPAs. Something on the order of a Whidby Island class follow on would be ideal.

The RAN is in the middle of a major structural renewal, which started with the Anzac’s and Collins, proceeding through the Armidale’s and culminating in the AWD and amphib’s.

What you will note is that there is no ‘Tier 2’ vessel concept here, everything is designed to either undertake local patrolling (Armidale’s and possibly the Tenix 85 metre OPV) or front line combat in a high threat environment.

The RAN learnt during the 1991 Gulf War that you rarely have the benefit of knowing who you will fight several years in advance, and the ‘Tier’ concept went out the window.

Unicorn

The RAN will not operate the F35 in the VSTOL variant.

The RAAF will operate them, probably in the following mix.

1 Sqdn F35 VSTOL
2 Sqdn (may be disbanded)
3 Sqdn F35 CTOL
75 Sqdn F35 CTOL
77 Sqdn F35 CTOL
2 OCU mix of both types (may be renamed 2 Squadron)

The RAN has neither the manpower nor the resources to set up an air wing organisation that duplicates the RAAF, they will simply operate the F35 off the LPAs (for which reason I suspect that the Navantia design will win out, its large enough to operate a detachment of the F35B, where the Mistral is not).

Unicorn

Sounds a bit like the arguements for the Sea Control Ship, which died the death when the USN’s carrier Admirals realised that every dollar spent on a SCS meant one less for a CVN.

The same thing will happen with these global OPVs.

The RN (or whoever) will send in a budgetary alocation request to build some new high end DDG or FFGs capable of operating against serious hostile threat environments, and will be told ‘sorry old boy, no can do, after all we gave you the money for those OPV thingies a few years back, they will have to do until there is more money available”.

Governments and bureacrats don’t understand tiered threats, they will always go for the cheapest option.

Better to buy the best and have too much ship for the threat, than to have saved money and end up with too little ship for the threat environment.

Unicorn

Well, you have stated your point and your opinions so now why don’t we sit back and wait and see what actually eventuates.

All the current discussion is doing is burning up band width as parties state and restate their positions.

Lets move the discussion on to other areas regarding the Indian military, such as the nuclear sub program, the CV program’s and the IN’s next surface combatants.

Unicorn

Interesting, if followed through with.

What is the timeframe for these ships?

Unicorn

LOL 😀 Never going to happen. THe IAF is least impressed with that plane. Rafale or russian plane just wait and see.

Perhaps, but at least it is available now, in series production and has the advantage of making geo-political (if not necessarily military) sense.

India and the US are getting closer, there may also be some quid pro quo in return for India’s nuclear ambitions being accepted by the US.

Unicorn

And while the USN may not have felt it cost-effective to refit a strike length Mk-41 VLS to these ships, the ROCN probably would to get a modestly effective ATMB capability.

Unicorn