I agree, as stated previously I think Sweden would have to offer a very special “package” if they are to have a chance, with other components that can compensate for the gap in capabilities between Gripen NG and F-35; however if they offer a more extensive package it becomes more of a challenge to compete on cost, even if Sweden were to offer to share operating costs etc.

Sweden does have an advantage due to the geography; they could offer to jointly purchase and operate a small fleet of GlobalEye; they could also offer to have a common pool of spare parts and look at other synergies to reduce operating costs of their Gripen a/c (share training facilities etc).

Then there are also things like the potential option of operating from Swedish airbases with full technical support in times of crisis (If Sweden would allow such a thing).

One challenge with the F-35 in Finland is that it may become so expensive that they may be able to afford only one airbase. If there is a surprise attack on that single airbase, Finland could in worst case find themselves without an air force…. On the ground the F-35 is as vulnerable as any other fighter jet. The air base will of course be well protected, however not even the best SAM system in the world offer 100% protection — to my knowledge the system they have today is NASAMS which is quite good but is a short/medium-range system and should ideally either be upgraded or complimented with a long-range system to give a multi-layer protection.

I strongly doubt SH will be a competitor since the cost of the F-35 will probably be on the same level as the SH (or lower) by the time Finland is starting to buy.

How important is industrial offsets considered to be in this deal? I am guessing it is not on the top of the priority list, but I may be wrong.

One of the thing I have been thinking of is shipbuilding. Finland is really great at it and there is a really nice looking project for new corvettes (and I don’t mean that the ship is good looking, I mean that it looks like one of the most capable corvette designs out there, depending on the choice of SAM’s and ASW sensors).

The Swedish Navy is in a desperate need for more ships. They are now extending the life of rather incapable ships constructed in the 80s and early 90s to work into the 2030’s. They just don’t need replacements for them they also need additional plattforms. This have been known for a long time without the politicians acting and allocating funds for it. (Sure your already aware of this).

Offering to buy 4-6 ships from Finland as an offset to a Gripen deal would be the perfect advantage that Gripen needs. I can’t believe it still hasn’t been floated by the defense group in the parliament (but I’m hoping it have been discussed in secret). Sure I would love to see brad new swedish developed stealth ships with proper armament, but what we need now is a ship that actually works from the start and not 20 years later. It would be a win-win opportunity IMO.

Ship in question: https://corporalfrisk.com/2016/10/22/further-developments-of-squadron-2020/

What are the reasons for this?

The T1 and T2/T3 are vastly different airplanes. Similar names and looks, sure.

The internal commonality between the T1 and T2/T3 is only around 30% if I remember correctly (can’t remember the exact number). Keeping the separate supply and maintenance chains working is a big challenge, as no service really is prepared to invest enough money that it coast to operate the T1’s effectively. One can say that they planned great to produce the planes and get them operational, but they did not plan much more than that as all the focused was shifted to make the T2’s better.

It will be interesting to see how it works in the UK now with the T1’s. The Air Force wanted to retire them to save money for the F-35’s, but the politicians wanted to keep them in order to meet their spending targets as promised by Cameron.

The biggest problem Austria did was to cheap out and opt for the T1’s (which Luftwaffe was extremely happy to get rid of…).

Hi dear neighbor!

Dassault is offering similar industrial co-op as EF and SAAB. Financial package is not told public yet. L-M is going towards better industrial co-op but is it enough? Boeing has been keeping very low profile towards public.

Cheers,

HN

It will be very interesting to see Dassault’s final offer. If I remember correctly the Mirage 2000 was viewed very favorable by the FiAF back the early 90s. Almost close enough to win the whole thing? Main problem with the Rafale IMO is the french origin.

It will also be interesting to see what LM comes up with. It’s a bit of a challenge for them to offer any good industrial benefits for the F-35 with the way the program is formed for that aspect with the partner nations.

Exactly. BAe is responsible for Finnish offer. They have long tradition to trade with Finland with the Hawk.

Cheers,

HN

I really like the Eurofighter, it’s a great plane (minus the T1’s). I do think it’s chances in Finland is rather low though.

If it’s gonna be a 4th generation twin engined fighter I’d put my money on Boeing. With Finland already operating the Hornet I except them to go all-in completely in this procurement. I saw that they are now gonna force the Danish Government to release the documents from their procurement. I’m guessing they will read through them very closely before they do anything in Finland, in order to increase their chances of success.

Although I would love to see Gripen win I would probably bet on the JSF.

Read more: http://www.defensenews.com/articles/finland-cracks-down-on-direct-lobbying-for-hx-fighter

As the cost of the F-35 keeps dropping, the probability of it winning keeps going up. In particular I am puzzled that Dassault and Eurofighter bother to stay in this competition… they are both too expensive, and offer no particular strategic advantage.

If Sweden wants Gripen to have a winning chance at all I think they must be creative and come up with a very special package, for instance giving access to Swedish Gripen airbases and Swedish Gripen equipment in a war situation; offer to purchase and operate jointly a fleet of Globaleye AEW (which could to some degree compensate for not having the sensors of the F-35); and furthermore codevelop a “growler” version of the Gripen; and longer-term throw in some 5. gen UCAV based on the Neuron.

If they can deliver all that in a package that is highly cost-effective perhaps they got a chance against the F-35 — however such a package would probably become prohibitely expensive unless Sweden is willing to foot a significant part of the bill. Looking at their defence budget, that looks very unlikely.

Thus the Finnish Air Force can probably look forward to operating a (minimum) number of 5. gen a/c in the future.

BAE and SAAB both offer very advantageous financial packages for the Typhoon and Gripen from their respective government, as well as very good industrial benefits. The F-35 is doubtless the most capable of the bunch, so they have to beat it in something else than just performance.

Five is about the fewest you can buy if you want to be able to maintain continuous coverage for any length of time… and even then it would become challenging if the crisis was of long duration.

This is true. The plan here in Sweden, for a credible force usable in a war, was for 18 planes. When the cold war ended it was very close to the whole program being scrapped completely, but since all of the development were already taken in the budget six planes were bought and only two remain today.

Funny because in the summer of 2015 all of the major political parties (who work together every 5 years for the defense decision of that period) were in agreement that two planes is now way to few when national defense is back in the picture.

:applause:

investigating a spike in radiation levels over Europe.

Iodine-131 to be precise.

EMALS without nuclear, that would have been fun! Refill every day?

The Carrier-version of Gripen was never gonna happen. Even if Brazil kept their carrier and went through with the plans to build another one it is highly likely that the navy would have conducted their own procurement and gone with one of the established carrier planes. Possible even second hand planes from the US. The opportunity in Brazil is for more Gripens to the air force.

For India it will be a long time before they have a catobar carrier. When that time comes they will most likely be cleared to buy the F-35C, which by that time will certainly have a much more attractive price.

I can’t see why Philippines would be interested since they recently bought the KAI T-50.

And even if they wanted to buy it they would not be allowed thanks to their new “questionable” leadership.