organizations like NAL know the mig-27 inside out, they have carried out numerous structural analysis of the types and keep a close watch on the airframes. it’s not a particularly big problem.

And all Bison squadrons are to be retired in this decade as well IIRC former ACM FH Major said that in a few interviews (while he was chief).

same in my projection above.

boss, read my last post. as per current plans,
by 2017 IAF is going to induct
*7-8 more mki squadrons (depending on numbers held by each sqdn, since the 2 seat type trainers are not needed),
*3 LCA sqdns
*at least 3 MRCA squadrons.

while it needs to decommission
-7 older mig-21 sqdns
-a couple of bison sqdns and
-3 mig-27 sqdns. the upg of mig-27’s were completed in 2009 and they are not going to be thrown away after 6 years, the older migs would be cannibalised to keep these 40 in the air.
so 13-14 sqdns to replace 12 sqdns. heck, they can all retire more bison sqdns if they want.

during 2017-2020, aircraft worth 7-8 sqdns at least will join IAF, 3-4 each of tejas and MRCA and possibly 1 sqdn of FGFA. that would be enough to replace the 2.5 mirage sqdns, 2 mig-27upg and the 2-3 remaining bison units.

darin 2 jaguars would be replaced next in the time period 2020-2025 and IAF sqdn numbers will start going up in this time.
the re-engined jaguars in darin 3 config (2-3 sqdns) and 3 mig-29 upg units will be withdrawn starting 2025.

IAF sqdn number is not going to go down any further, in spite of the recent hoohah that it will go below PAF by shiv aroor et al. so there’s no need for desperate measures.

right now it stands at 37.5 sqdns, not counting the 3 sqdns of mig-21FL’s held by MOFTU and OCU. this is against sanctioned strength of 39.5 sqdns.
admittedly, this includes 5 sqdns of mig-21M/MF and 2 of bis which aren’t exactly frontline fighters any more but they are still good enough for the CAS duties for which they are used.
now, IAF inducts 1-1.5 sqdn of su-30mki every year and will induct 2 LCA sqdns over the next 3 years. they can afford to replace the older non-bison fishbeds with modern aircraft without suffering a dip in sqdn number.
as and when the LCA mk2, MRCA(and later the FGFA) start to arrive they will be able to replace the non-upg mig-27, bisons, older jaguars and mirage-2000, in that order.

source : http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Units/Others/281-Fleet.html

someone just can’t get over the fact that their favourite fighter has been eliminated. 😀

just continue using the mirage till the MRCA starts entering service. MRCA numbers will match current m2k numbers by 2018 latest.

MKI is produced at nashik (which is HAL’s ‘mig’ complex), it will convert to FGFA after that. LCA will continue to be manufactured at b’lore. possibly AMCA too.

there might be a new production line for MRCA.
edit : just came across this article. along similar lines to what I posted above.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-06-17/news/29670146_1_manufacturing-plants-fifth-generation-fighter-aircraft-multi-role

where did you get the figure of 30 more years ? the life is increasing by 15 years at most.

I expect retirements of jag, mig-29 and m2k to start by 2024 and completed by 2030 +/- 2 years. mig-21’s should be gone by 2020. mig-27 by 2025.

by 2030, the composition would be MKI, LCA, FGFA, MRCA and a few AMCA.

aha, someone is shifting goalposts. 😀

the plan was to induct 83 LCA Mk2 in first lot, correct. the plan was NEVER to cap production at that number, which is what you claimed.

He did say its mig 21++ and then backtracked possibly under pressure. May be his personal opinion remains the same but the position he sits in demands him to be more sensitive towards the indigenous Tejas.

or may be he said something completely different and you are too blinded by your biases to see it ?

Wait till he retires and starts writing on Force or India Strategic then what he thinks of it may be more clear cut.

why not hold your celebration AFTER he writes for those mags and trashes lca, as you are hoping you will ?
what if he doesn’t, will you change your signature to “I make immature unfounded comments without understanding the issues” ? 😀

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Twinblade, I know just enough about this subject to realize that I don’t know enough (to comment about it in that kind of detail). 😉