The new defence secretary has already said its his intention to carry on the SDSR as planned.

Hammonds own words

The projection of military power is the raison d’être of the Armed Forces

The Armed Forces that will emerge from the implementation of the Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) will be formidable, flexible and adaptable – structured to defend the country and project power abroad – equipped with some of the best and most advanced technology in the world.

Astute Class Submarines, Type 45 Destroyers, Global Combat Ship, Queen Elizabeth Class Carriers, Joint Strike Fighter, Typhoon, Voyager, Foxhound, Warrior, Watchkeeper.

This is not a vision of retrenchment; it is an ambitious programme of renewal after a decade of continuous operations

I haven’t read anything that remotely calls into question CVF’s future.

I think the bottom line is they do want both to get cats/traps but they only have funding secured for the one so can’t announce it (hence the ‘that is the plan’ and ‘private assurance’ statements)

The question is does th Royal Navy and Britain need a carrier? do they really believe in being a world power anymore? because if so, said power requires more than a carrier…. it requires the ships, planes and troops to back it up…. and they are being shed at an alarming rate!

No, they don’t want to be a ‘world power’ for the sake of being one. They are shaping their armed forces to deal with their own circumstances and interests.

‘world power’ and fleet numbers tend to be the area for online military fanboys not governments.

The SDSR pretty much sets out what the UK wants to be able to do – and that doesn’t involve having 6 carriers in the Indian ocean. It does however say that in the long term the RN will need power projection from the sea.

You say ‘shedding ships’ but the RN is in the process of building next gen SSN’s, the 2 CVF and planning for the next SSNs & T26. So yes, the UK Mil will be a lot smaller but very high tec. And no, it won’t be able to fight WW3 on its own. And nor should its government set out to enable it to do so!

Not buying any aircraft now (Super Bug, Rafale, or whatever….) makes it much easier to can the whole thing in 2015.

No, it makes it affordable in the 2020 SDSR plan. There are no funds to have a carrier or purchase planes for it pre-2015 as the money isn’t there. By procuring JSF post 2018, it becomes affordable.

They cannot ‘can the whole thing’ in 2015 because as anyone studying the project will tell you it will cost more to cancel and results in the death of UK shipbuilding. This is obviously unpalatable to UK government as it was one of the options put forward to the NSC concerning the carriers last year and was not taken up.

Given the complexities of working a CVF up from scratch i’m pretty sure now that HMS QE will launch without cats, PoW will get them instead and QE will be used to train on/trials until PoW is launched.

What happens to QE after then remains up in the air. If the MoD is now setting aside a budget of £950mn for a 2 rail EMALS then converting QE in first refit seems a bit of an impossibility. Hopefully this is just the new regime at the MoD under Bernard Gray vastly overestimating cost rather than the usual ‘conspriacy of optimism’

We know what the 1SL said, but unless the government is prepared to throw more money at defence or make cuts elsewhere then it’s a non starter.

As the 1SL himself said ‘it is time to move on, stop dwelling on past decisions and concentrate all our efforts into the QE Class’

….Or sets up the FAA nicely for a Rafale-M buy. The RAF can then switch to the cheaper F-35A.

The UK is consolidating the amount of different equipment in its fleets. No way is the UK going to have 3 different types of fast jet.

The future is Typhoon and F35C (around 110 and 50) complemented by UCAVs.

The Mistral would provide an LHD replacement for HMS Ocean, and the Rafales would be a much more affordable option than the F-35C, especially if it was part of a barter deal for the second carrier.

No UK workshare in Rafales, next to no weapons integrated either. The UK will get 10-15% per F35 sold, it makes every sense to continue with JSF/JCA even if just commerically.

A better solution, if the MoD really intends to have a minimal carrier capability of availability 5 out of every 7 years that we sell the 2nd carrier and get some Hawkeyes and maybe an LHD.

At the moment i’m getting the inclination they’re hoping for a better economic outlook in 2015 to bring the 2nd carrier into service as the Ocean replacement (even if a 65k ton Helo carrier is overkill)