Simply put, all bmi are doing is offering their cheapest fares under the “baby” branding even though the flights will still be operated by bmi-mainline. This may be a clever move on their part if they are determined to appeal to the masses and compete against the low-fare operators (rather than BA), as a significant body of public opinion still believes BA and bmi are high fare, and the likes of EasyJet and bmibaby are low-fare. By rebranding bmi’s cheapest fares, they may effectively get them noticed by far more casual travellers.

Even though the passengers who book baby will be travelling on bmi on these routes, they won’t get FF miles, they won’t get through check-in, they won’t be able to use lounges, etc. although those benefits will be retained by those who book through bmi, pay higher fares and travel on the same airplanes.

Of course, the danger is that they end up diluting the bmi brand so much that the entire operation becomes regarded as baby / low-fare and all the premium traffic goes to BA. Or maybe that’s what they want an excuse to do anyway, and this is a way of breaking it to their loyaly higher-paying customers.

Andy

I have read that the FlyBe 3-3 configuration is cramped, suppose all charter aircraft are anyway!

They are dreadful 3+3, and FlyBe’s 146s are right old clunkers too.

Just as an illustration, when I worked at Donington Hall there was a significant problem when G-MANS joined the fleet on lease – at the time the airline still served meals 😮 and the standard meal trays wouldn’t fit six across on the seat back tables without the trays sticking out into the aisle! 🙁

A

Ouch! Huge question… Analysts get paid huge amounts of money to try to answer questions like those!

But, I’m feeling generous so I’ll supply my opinions for free this afternoon! 😉

* Firstly, the airline is very cyclic. Right now, it is going through a period of slow growth, but with a downward trend on service. Growth has finally come as customers get used to the post-9/11 issues and a recession, whilst the downward service trend has come as a result of the low-fare carriers and the need for airlines to fight the post-9/11 reduction in passengers and recession. We are now arriving at a point where the legacy carriers are getting closer to the low-fares, and once that equalisation is largely complete service levels from some carriers will inevitably start to slowly creap up again – the potential for growth in “traditional” airline cities is NOT limitless and airlines will ulteimately start to differentiate themselves again to win business. It will take some time, but I expect it will start to happen early in the next decade, as by then I expect the legacy carriers will be largely profitable again. We will never go back to the days when air travel was seen as a luxury, but we will move away from the idea that its just like getting on a bus to an extent, because it will become more expensive to travel.

* The two business models we see now (legacy and low-fare) will broadly continue, although increasingly the legacy back cabin has become hard to differentiate from the so-called low-fare offer. As the playing field equalises, and more passengers get savvy to the fact that low-fare isn’t always cheapest, I expect a slow rebound to legacy and eventually even a limited step up in service again. The low-fare model will gradually migrate to be something more like JetBlue than Ryanair. I don’t think another major in the US will go bust even though one or two may file for Ch.11. One or two European carriers are obviously still vulnerable, but desipte EU rules national pride will not allow the larger carriers to disappear.

* New-market airlines like Emirates will continue to grow (look out for the Indian carriers’ to expand too) primarily because they are built on a low cost structure and because they have less constraints (financial, environmental and political) on their growth. But this will not result in the demise of traditional carriers, as the Emirates of this world have primarily created new markets (new destinations, plus increased O&D options resulting from their new hubs). Having said that, I think airlines like Emirates will have to slow down, because they will come under increased price pressure from regional competition (in Emirates case, from Qatar and Etihad).

* Ultra large airplanes such as the A380 will find a place on major long-haul routes, although their markets will be limited – A380 will sell well but slowly, like the 747 before it. Such aircraft will have a place transporting the masses from continent to continent, and in moving people on very long haul routes where comfort is a factor AND where alternative aircraft will not offer a much more efficient service. Something that is taking off slowly, but in which I think that there will be significant growth, is the small-aircraft, premium-service, long-haul market – scheduled services like LH and LX are already offering in conjunction with Privatair on A319″CJ”s and 737″BBJ”s to the US, and which Air France is doing with its Dedicate A319s into Africa. This will be the way in which the corporate traveller who will pay a premium for point-to-point travel will fly, and it will also allow some airlines to push marginal and loss-making back-cabin traffic on regional point-to-point routes to major hubs (i.e. go direct, pay more – go via a hub, go on an A380/747 and pay less).

* Capacity will also start to constrain growth. The increase in point-to-point traffic (whether a hub-busting domestic operated by an RJ or increased O&D options across the Atlantic on a 787) will ultimately be restricted as even regional airports start to become congested. The days of building new mega-airports to accommodate growth are over – take for example the difficulties being encountered not only in Europe, but also in places like SAN in the US. RJ sales will continue to be boyant for some time, but they’ll get bigger – the market has already moved from Metros to Beech 1900s/JetStreams to Saabs to RJs, and the RJs are getting bigger (CRJ700/900 and EMB170/190). Initially smaller RJs will be moved into more point-to-point markets, but eventually capacity at airports and within the ATC system will contrict growth and the sale of new RJs will start to drop off. A lot of top-deck freight will utlimately move to its own dedicated airports to provide limited capacity growth to passenger traffic, although this will cause logistical problems when transfers are required between top-deck and belly hold on pax services.

* Environmental issues will ultimately also constrain the growth in air travel. The environmental impact of air travel is already starting to be raised in Europe, and I expect it to become more of an issue as time passes. The US may bury its head in the sand on this for now, but ultimately environment will have impact on the amount of travel that takes place (inhibited by environmental taxation/restrictions) unless the industry can really address the issue by designing MUCH more emssions friendly airplanes – and then airlines will be forced to use them eventually, much as the industry was forced to move away from noisy aircraft.

* Oil will also have an impact on travel. The days of cheap oil are over for good, and sooner or later this will feed back into the cost of travel more so than it has done to date – even Southwest can only hedge its fuel for so long! Once the hedging is over, air fare prices will rise across the board, even at the low-fare carriers and this will gradually start to constrain their growth.

Andy

Excellent shots Grey…

The viewing area at BHX gives many chances to photograph aircraft. Where Grey area took his shots were at the picnic area but if you have a small enouch camera lens, it will fit through the gaps in the fence. If not, a pair of step ladders are required.

Nah, if not a pair of wire cutters is required unless the hole made by the last guy is still there! 😉

Andy

Just a few from the delightfully named Nottingham East Midlands Airport… Rumour is that if Ryanair start up at NEMA they will be calling it Glasgow South.

Close Kev, but not close enough… Ryanair already operate from the airport, and they want it to be renamed “Birmingham NorthEast” 😉

A

One of the Fokkers is at EMA right now, so there!