The refit you refer to is deep, 15 months including a nuclear refueling, no ship can make seven years without time in dock.
I agree and I am saying a major refit every six years 🙂
Now, tell me again – why do you think the IN will do so much better than everyone else, & better than it has ever done before?
Viraat is a rather old ship nearing the end of its service life. Yet its uptime have been decent, CdeG is a good example of what I am saying look at its up and down times even by your estimate its impressive.
Then 6 years 4 months to a major refit, & 15 months in dock.
I would be happy if we can maintain that. Even if you add small repairs (taking few months) the 3 ships will be in operation for nearly 50% of the time in 20 years.
1) It is cheapest of all the foreign competitors.
Cheapest and least capable and MK2 won’t be ready by the MRCA induction time.
2) It is immune from sanctions, technology denial and end user restrictions (like F-16 of PAF) etc.
Not when the current engines are American and proposed engines include American and European.
3) On demand tech. support, instead of a “long winding” process of contacting the manufacturer, “poring” through the contract papers to see if it is a valid request and then providing support.
Over 200 planes would mean tech support won’t be an issue.
4) No geo-political ‘strings’ attached, no political obligations etc.
Nothing in the MRCA case either. You are doing them a favour by choosing their products from a tough competiton so the onus is on them to show obligations if any. This is especially true for non american types.
No I am not 6 years is the avarage time the Viraat has been in service before refits :). Its nearly 6-7 years for the CdeG as well. The workload will be far less with 3 ships.
Anyway 6 years service, 1 year refit is not a long service short refit cycle. The CdeG was out for a year or so and the next refit is sheduled at 2015 7 years from 2008 :).
I gave you a model of how it works so stop holding on to your 25% thing and get down and dirty and show me how your model works.
2 years refit after every 4 years is never seen before.
The base of my model is this
Refit every 6 years = Time taken for refit 1 year
Add 6 months either way and you still get near 50 % availability for 3 carriers and 100 % for 2 carriers over a period of 20 years from 2022, after that India will probably have more than 3 carriers.
If you look at USN carriers, RN carriers, or the INs history, you’ll see that maybe 20% of a carriers life is spent in refit or repair. You also need work-up time after refits.
You might get 75% availability from a single ship. It’s a simple calculation. 25% down time each from 3 ships means that you’ll only have 3 on line 25% of the time.
If you stretch the time between overhauls, you make the ship more prone to major breakdowns, & you end up with less predictable (which is bad) down time.
Actually if you time the overhauls right you will get 3 ships available for more time that.
The timing of induction is crucial lets see if its 2014 2016 and 2022 (as indicated by IN)
The first carrier will need its refit by 2020 the second will need its by 2022 when the third carrier will enter service in 2022, So in 2023 you will have 3 carriers ( first one only 3 years into its refit) second one just coming out of its refit and third one only a year in service. Your theories do not hold water…
2023
3 carriers
VICKY = 3 years after refit
IAC 1 – 0 years after refit
IAC 2 – 1 year after refit
3 carriers from 2023-2026
2026
Vicky = 6 years undergoes refit
IAC 1 = 3 years after refit
IAC 2 = 4 years after refit
2027
Vicky = 0 years after refit
IAC 1 = 4 years after refit
IAC 2 = 5 Years after refit
2027 – 2028 = 3 carriers in service – 1 year total 3+1 = 4
2029
Vicky = 1 year after refit
IAC 1 – 5 years after refit
IAC 2 – 6 years undergoes refit
2030
Vicky = 2 years after refit
IAC 1 = 6 years underoges refit
IAC 2 – 0 years after refit
2031
Vicky – 3 years after refit
IAC 1 – 0 Years after refit
IAC 2 – 1 Year after refit
2031-2034 – 3 carriers in service – for 3 years total – 3+4 – 7
2034
Vicky – 6 years undergoes refit
IAC 1 – 3 years after refit
IAC 2 – 4 years after refit
2035
Vicky – 0 years after refit
IAC 1 – 4 years after refit
IAC 2 – 5 years after refit
2035-2036 – 3 carriers in service – for a year total – 7+1 – 8
2036
Vicky – 1 year after refit
IAC 1 – 5 years after refit
IAC 2 – 6 years undergoes refit
2037
Vicky – 2 years after refit
IAC 1 – 6 years undergoes refit
IAC 2 – 0 years after refit.
2038
Vicky – 3 years after refit
IAC 1 – 0 years after refit
IAC 2 – 1 year after refit
2038-2041 – 3 carriers in service – for 3 years – total – 8+3 – 11
From 2022 – 2041 19 years 11 years with 3 carriers 🙂 more than 50 %
i was wondering if its possible to get TOT for weapons too like PGMs, BVRAAMs and Standoff cruise missiles?
AFAIK not likely, even the Russians have not given us technology for the R 77 I believe. Our best bet is co-development with Israel, like we going with Barak 2.
Any missile over 300 kms have to be developed indegenously though. 😐
In case of a future India Pakistan war, only a fool will believe America will side with Pakistan. It may not stay neutral 20 years from now 🙂
You want to look into that a bit further?. CdeG’s next refit 2015 and likely to be another 15mnths yard time plus workups on top of that. Our rotation with the CVS’s has followed a similar pattern until Invincible was decommed.
That is like 6-7 years after the current refit, also remember CdeG is Frances only carrier, so it has to bear a higher workload.
You dont get 2 permanent deployments with 3 carriers available Ante. I’m afraid its simple as that.
Not logically but if the Navy prefers that then i guess it will be like that. With an average 6-7 years between refits 12-15 month period for refit etc. It is very feasible to have 3 in service most of the time 🙂
MRCA is going to be a different AC Abhimanyu. If the Tejas proves it worth it will have its good share of orders as well.
PAK FA
MKI
MRCA
LCA
Gorshkov is set for 2012 service entry so, going on current performance, IAC-1 commissions 2015 and Gorshkov is already likely to need a refit period especially if, as the single duty carrier, she’s been busy. Given the likely delay to IAC-1 presumably they are starting cutting steel on IAC-2 by 2013 for a commissioning date in 2018 at the very soonest.
Actually the Vicky is set for sea trials in 2012 so the actual service date may be 2013-14.
IAC 1 is sheduled for 2014, I would push that by a year or two given our normal delays and all.
IAC 2 is sheduled for 2022 according to navy brass, check the IN thread for details.
That would mean that the VIcky and IAC 1 will enter service probably within 2-3 years of each other.
I also consider your requirement of a 2 year refit every 5-6 years as a bit over the top. If you check the refits done to other carriers worldwode, you would realise the period between refit is much higher and the time taken for refit much shorter.
When IAC 2 comes out Vicky will be fresh from her first refit and by my estimate IAC1 will have a year or so to go before her first refit, that would take a year or so.
All in all 2 carriers will be operational always and 3 most of the time. In a 10 year period 7 years with 3 carriers would do just fine :).
if US or Europe release technology for their own fighters and deny the same for Gripen, that would damage the relations.
Between U.S and Sweden may be, not between U.S and India. You cannot expect them to give ToT if you don’t select their fighter :eek:. The issue is to be negotiated between Sweden and U.S we have nothing to do with it, we should just ask the Swedes how much ToT and on what components.
Er no…you will have 3 carriers that will enter service over a phased period of time. Likely as IAC-3 commissions then IAC-1 will need to go into deep refit to make good any defects that have occured over its initial service period and to receive upgrades to bring it into line with the later ships. When IAC-1 finishes her deep refit then it will, likely, be about time for IAC-2 to undergo her first major period of yard time. By the time IAC-2 comes out it will be time for IAC-3 to go back in etc. Remember this does not include time for workups or make-good work to any major operational defects that surface under trials.
Deployments like this being juggled with just 3 hulls is going to be quite traumatic for the IN brass – ideally you would want at least 4 modern, low-maintainance decks to keep 2 out at all times.
You are talking about worst case scenarios. As of now IAC 3 is not planned, the three carriers with be IAC 1 IAC 2 and the Vicky. They will probably be named Vikrant and Viraat.
The refits take like an year or so maximum and the period between the refits is rather big so lets say.
When the IAC comes out ( 2014 – 16) Vikramidtya will only be a few years in service and will not need a refit for another year or two and when it goes into refit IAC 1 will be the only carrier, By 2022 (acc to navy brass) IAC 2 will enter service, then Vikramditya will be fresh from a refit and IAC 1 will only have 6 years under her belt. So we are likely to have 3 carriers and then IAC 1 will go in for her first refit, we will have Vicky and IAC 2.
So going by this logic, 2 carriers will be available always and 3 most of the time. 😀
They may well. In many ways, they’d be silly if they didn’t so as to get undoubtedly the best system for the job. That doesn’t mean that the net political effect of the LPD was positive. I don’t think that deal can claim any credit for bringing the two countries closer together, though that remains my opinion.
Fair enough but you should know only the leftists here made a big fuzz about it.
This image from Planeman’s excellent carrier topic should help wonders.
http://i34.tinypic.com/2m5axwx.jpg
what about the absolute footprint, other than the wings, is the Su 33 not the larger plane ?
INS Vikramaditya probably will… :p
…if it doesn’t end up under the sea.
That thing is a white elephant
An Indian delegation is currently in Russia to finalize the price, if they are going to push it up more we’ll prolly say to hell with you and ask Britain or America for something else.
Ante
You may want to check quite how many operational aircraft carriers the Marine Nationale had between Sept 07 and December 08 and then google around and see where the Aeronavale was doing its flying?!
You may be in for a suprise!.
I know it was not available for some time, I also think the Viraat is under refit now, but these things do not happen always, when was CDGs last refit ?
So ideally we will have 3 carriers most of the time with one being in dock once every few years.