Typhoon Tranche 3B is already a thing of the past in the eyes of the MOD. There will be talks on the subject between industry and the partner nations however there will be no further orders. Industry seem to have realised that if all four countries refuse to order the aircraft then they have no hope of pushing the deal through, especially in the current economic climate.
The decision to acquire the F-35 has essentially been made. They probably need to decide on numbers of aircraft for the F-35 programme before 2015 and a contract is likely to be in place for the initial aircraft. They may split the purchase into two batches which would allow them to delay a firm decision on the total size of the F-35 fleet until the 2015 SDSR.
Other aircraft related decisions are required on the future of carrier AEW which will probably invlove moving the current mission systems from the Sea King fleet to the Merlins rather than the purchase of a new platform. Industry are still proposing plenty of different solutions for this but funding will dictate the solution I think.
A decision on what to do with the Sentinel fleet will also be needed and the various elements of MFTS will need to be firmed up (although this to an extent is an issue for Ascent rather than the MOD).
They also need to marinise the RAF Merlin fleet before it transitions to the Navy.
I don’t think the IRST has been selected for Gripen NG yet. As far as I can gather the Selex Skyward G is still competing with French (probably Thales) and American proposals. Although I can only see one winner there.
I’d imagine these will be old barely servicable MiG-29s. The Russian’s are making an effort to keep Israel onside at the moment and providing them with SMTs would not be the way to go about it. Plus the Russians are ploughing all the money they can get there hands on into modernising their own armed forces and I can’t see them paying MiG for SMTs for Lebanon when they still haven’t agreed to the upgrade for the own fleet.
The biggest potential winners are Saab and Dassault. Both aircraft need to increase their exports if they are to provide the Gripen and Rafale with an effective through life upgrade plan.
Although Saab is likely to sell plenty more Gripens, Sweden’s decision to reduce the number of Gripens it operates means that these aircraft are likely orders are likely to be filled with ex-Swedish aircraft (certainly in Eastern Europe). Gripen NG is to some extent dependent upon a large contract like MMRCA being placed.
Rafale on the otherhand looks set to get it’s order reduced by the French government and with only Libya, UAE and possibly Brazil as potential export customers that line is in need of a new order.
The Super Hornet seems safe for the time being with a new multi-year order looking more likely and the Growler programme ramping up. F-16 is a programme which is reaching the end of it’s natural life. Eurofighter has Tranche 3 and a few potential clients. MiG-35 doesn’t really play by the same rules.
And with regards to the MiG-35 as a potential winner, I’m not sure India would favour a future combat fleet made up entirely of Russian made (Su-30MKI, MiG-35, PAK-FA) fighters supplemented by Tejas…