DJ.No I dont see any “expansionism” efforts, but there are two possible “points of conflict” that could cause regional trouble. One being obviously Kosove and second Republika Srpska. I personally see Kosovo as “lost” and as you and many in West argue the Kosovo Albanians have right to self determination, well as Bosnian Serb i feel RS have that right too… only its funny how both WEST and too be honest Serbs them self, can take two opposing issues on what appears to be same set of circumbstances.. a minority that forms majority in set regions seeking self determination. Now that premier or RS has set refferendum for self determination on the agenda for 2014 I can see potential for problems.. So that is the main issue with any form of future planing for Serbia and its deffense requirment.
You are absolutely right when you say that most of our Neighbors pose no threat, and that should they realy want USA /NATO could overwhelm and destroy any AD we could possible get. BUT there is a factor of effort required that you are ignoring.
In 1999 Serbia had no automated short range AD, beyond some flak guns fro circa 1950, and medium range SAMs from 1970 .. with radars from same decade. All NATO Ac had to do si keep above 5000m cealing and they were safe… but it still ment they had to be above 5000m height from which they where less effective and Nato Helos like Apaches while deployed were never used. As a result most of our hardware (that was movable) was saved and NATO had to resort to hitting Civilan targets to persuade SM to negotiate.. and even then they had to offer concesions in UN resolution 1244 which states that Kosovo is part of Serbia…. just too bad for us that EU/USA can ignore UN resolutions when it suits them (see Iraq)
But the whole point is that the Antiquatedd SA3s and P12s were far from totally useless. Now compared that to rather modern Pantsyr / BukM2E combo. Very mobile , very compact , range of up to 50km and automated close range ability to hit Guided weapons and Cruise… combine that with berried fibre optic network (already exist in Serbia) and some electronic warfare systems and you got your self incerdibly capable network centric system for a price that is less than a squad of MiGs 29.
Look at for example Syria and Libya . Against Gadafi Euros were lining up to send and demonstrate their new toys (French in particular) knowing they faced pretty much 0 threat from AD. I do not think they would do same in Syria which has better AD network as Turkey found out. Now im not saying NATO could not owerpower Syria with ease.. ofcourse they could.. but increased danger and effort required causes potential agressor to atleast think it over in more detail… and that is where the sophisticated AD network shows value.
That all said New Aircraft doing loopy loops at airshows make for far better photo oportunites for corrupt polititians and are better tool for pacifying nationalistic knuckleheads who are currently up in arms over latest political troubles.
DJ.4-6 jets?
For air policing an air space 24 hours/7days a week/all year round plus training, maintenance, etc?Forget it, even one complete sqn will be very hard pressed for maintaining that kind of capability, even for a small airspace like Serbia. Look at how many jets the Austrian, the Swiss, the Bulgarians, the Portuguese, and any other small European nation fields to do QRA, you wont find anything less than a complete 12 airframes SQN, the alternative is doing an “Albanian/Lituanian/Latvian/Lethonian”.
We have been doing it with effectively 4 Mig 29s since 1999 😛
You have one sitting on ground ready to take off and you minnimise your combat training in A2A and A2G role.. concentrate on intercept an escort. In case of war you accept not to use them and , hide them somwhere underground an let AD system do the work.
DJ.Like I said we can agree to disagree on Geopolitics and History.
I disagree that Serbia would automatically go for Russian option., after all the country has recently bought some western equipment (Landrovers , HUMVEEs etc) and has swtiched to NATO standard ammunition. Reality is that West will not sell Serbia anything advanced, and Serbia CAN not afford it anyway. So China / Russia are only option.. with Russia more willing to be flexible when it comes to payment.
As you have said Radars are number on priority, however the need for advanced medium / short range AD is still there for security purposes. Jets can not compare in their cost effectivenes if one has to defend airspace against vastly superior forces. For simple air policing 4-6 jets Be they MiG29/Rafale/Gripen/EF/J10 or even JF17… they will all do just fine and you dont even need long range AAMs.
I read somewhere that BukM2 battery is 4-5 Million … for price one one MiG you can get whole squad of 6 units. There is no argument which is more effective of protecting your arispace. Combine Buk with Pansyr and you have incredibly capable integrated Medium/Short range system that can take on Aricraft and provide point defense against Cruise type missiles.
DJ.On unrelated topic… having seen Su35 and Mig29M2 up close I can not get my head around just how horribly is the mig put together compared to Flanker. What the heck is going on at at MiG… are they beating those panels into shape with hammers how hard is it to manifacture well fitted panel .
DJ.The MiG-29 has always looked pretty rugged with its heavy fuselage design, but how about we take it and give it a more sleek look? First with the Tornado body. Second with the Typhoon body.
Like the Typhoon merger… Can you do Front facing 😉
DJ.china offers very little for serbia.
china is traditionally a supporter of serbia’s greatest enemy. Alb.
China will supply whom ever pays.. but unlike Russians they are much harder to “persuade” to stop providing technical support once their sell you something. I wish Serbia had sense to develop closer ties to China over last decade rather than bending over to whims from Brussels and Washington for no gain at all.
Also I would not think of Albania as greatest enemy.. Surely historically speaking its the Turks 😉
DJ.What historical fairy tales?
Pretty much everything wrote above is inaccurate and in the most shameful and unabashed way, but your claim that Kosovo was not part of Serbia 1389-1850s because it was “Ottoman” is the most idiotic thing I have ever read. By your warped logic from 1939-1945 France was not rightfully French it was German. Silly Silly Silly. But this is not the place for your re education on historical matters and this will be the last I say on the topic.
As for political matter, yes its true that Nikolic govt. is the first govt. that is willing to disagree with EU and USA on some matters, yet its position is still towards EU membership.. it on fact EU it self that is once again moving the goal posts, for example in 2006 Brussels stated that Serbian recognition of Kosovo was not condition for membership.. in 2011 it was. So more people now are skeptical about Eurozone.. and financial mess is not helping either.
Now back to aviation, yes you are repeating what i said that only low end F16 are on the table from the western side, which answers your question why Russian offer looks more appealing… Since unlike Iraq people there may have some say about it.
Second your comment that joining NATO eliminates need for advanced AD… so why do ALL members of NATO such as Greece, Italy, Spain , Netherlands ,UK , Ireland etc etc ALL invest in advanced AD?? Why does Royal Dutch Army have needs for NASAMS ??. Its in NATO and surrounded by friends by your logic it has no need for advanced AD what so ever. I think most nations like idea of having an ability to control and yes defend their own airspace and not just from “armies”.. there are other threats like terrorist and criminals.
Serbian AD is severlly outdated, and in dire needs of upgrade , more so than Airforce, and Panstyr with BukM2 is ideal and cost effective option. Also the current crop of radars are insuficient to the point that even Civilan aircraft and not always tracked.
I am agreeing with you that S300 is a nonsense option.. for the reasons i specified. Too big, too complex, too expensive and more likely to cause ill feeling in the NATO and with the neighbours. Just recall Cypriots and the reaction from Turks regarding same issue.
Tigershark.. J10s would be perfect for air policing.. single engine, new airframes, cheap, reasonably modern and capable. Earlier this year during high level visit Chinese took entire Serbian delegation including Deffence minister and gave them J10 demonstration, and from everyting i have read and heard they were impressed.
HOWEVER, as obligatory mentioned Russia would not look kindly on that especially after Putin personally made intervention to approve last round of Financial Aid for Rail infractructure.
What ever their motivation may be Russia is by far the heaviest investor into Serbian economy nearly tripple that of EU.. and they are more flexible than Chinese who will want “cash” in advance.
All that said… Serbia is as my brother puts it “Land outside reality” … high enough bribe and anything is possible there. 🙂
DJ.C-27J has it’s pluses in rough field capabilities, cargo weight/dimensions, and range,
but either those factors matter enough to ‘kick out’ other competitors, or they don’t matter and price will determine the issue…
(AFAIK, there is no ‘trade space’ being considered for such things, as how the USAF evaluated Boeing and Airbus tankers)
Is this contest using ‘lifetime’ price, or upfront?
I was thinking mainly in area of Cargo Space Dimension. Moving various equipment in remote and unaccessible areas where airfields will not accomodate larger ac. CJ27 is perfect for that.
I disagree thought that price point will be the major factor if CJ loses the bid… I would think unlike MRCA this tender is expected sooner and not 10 years down the road.. and waiting list for CJ right now is substantial as it is.
Then there is issue of Tech Transfer…
DJ.Spartans seem to be perfect for what India needs. Just my 2c.
DJ.If Serbia buys new aircraft, it will be MiGs and nothing else. The Serbian politicians are too Russian orientated and against defence cooperation with the rest of Europe (even though even neutral countries ala Austria and Sweden are happy to cooperate with rest of Europe in this day and age).
They’re also apparently not enthusiastic of greater economic cooperation with Europe either.
It’s kind of reminiscent of Cuba or North Korea in some regards.
Ignorant and dumb comments are not uncommon on this forum since I first had a gander here more than 14 years ago… so I really should not be surprised by yours. However do allow me to point out few things for you having just returned from the country you compare to N.Korea.
Firstly may I recommend you visit Belgrade and observe number of “wester” corporation that are operating there freely and number of wester tourists from USA and EU having a blast and enjoying the famous night life, and then tell me if place resembles N.Korea.
Secondly most Serbian polititians of last 15 years have been so PRO west orientated and so determined to join EU that they overlooked indignities that no other nation would. They have given up territory, passed the laws to match EU costitution and not Serbian interest, granted free trade to EU goods yet not received same in return, handed over citizens to International Court sometimes purely on one or two biased ayewitnes testimonies , while those who commited crimes against Serbs and against whom there are mountain of indisputable evidence like video tapes, have been set free.
So After 15 years of Serbia voting pro West Parties, and trying its darnest to join EU and EU moving the goal posts, people have voted in curent PM who , and this is a shocker still wants to seek EU membership, but unlike former PM, is not completly going to ignore Russia and China..
So yeah.. like North Korea totally 😉
Going back to news at hand , you know aviation thingy (and sorry to have deviated above) , this is nothing more than speculations from mr. Lazanski the POLITIKA journo and local Aviation “enthusiast”, hence i doubt that anything will come of it.
That said , there is nothing insane about reported news if it were to be true. If Serbia wanted to maintain some sort of Airforce , then MiG29M is a perfect aircraft based on all things considered. Gripen would have been and was favorite until USA made it perfectly clear that it would block any sale and only “used F16” where on the table as far as Americans are concerned. Which is a rotten deal even if they are free.
UK and Germany would block Typhoons and while French did propose Raffale, the cost is 3x of that MiG29. Also French want cash, while Russian are more flexible with credits, and goods exchange.
As for Air Defense , small mobile and capable systems like Pantsyr and BukM2 is what is needed to maintain decently capable force. S300 is too big, too exposed and too expensive for a small nation.
So if Serbia does procure squadron of Migs and few AA systems, it would hardly mean its “Anti Western” or turning into Cuba or N.K. It just means its looking after its own interest and thinking what is best for it, not Boeing or Lockeed.
DJ.Russia’s T-50 PAK FA Not Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet Yet
http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/18-06-2010/113908-fifth_generation-0
“According to experts’ estimates, if a plane does not correspond to two or three requirements on the list of technical qualities, it can not be considered as fifth-generation aircraft. That is why the USA’s F-35 and Russia’s MiG-35 are only budget replacements of the genuine F-22 and T-50 fifth-generation jets. “
And that is where i stopped reading… Words F35 and “budget replacement” should never be used in the same sentence. EVER!
DJ.There is a YouTube video of an armed Super Tucano (Brazilian, I think) pursuing & destroying a drug smuggling light aircraft.
I hope you do not mean that case of Mistake identity when Minssionaries were killed???
DJ.I agree with most here.. looking from the bottom the intakes seem perfectly aligned… from the top the engine apears to be if not totally then significatly ofset from the mouth of the intake :confused::confused::confused:
http://img814.imageshack.us/img814/1097/67825104.jpg
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7245/60075910.jpg
I suppose people will take opinion based on their personal feelings and politics.. so somebody like Kapedani will belive that thing is made out of concrete and is will not be a match for F16D … Other members have already chrisened it as “rapotor killer”.
Persoanly … i do not care if it has a blocker , Sduck or combination…from what i can see i think it will be less stealthy than raptor and very close to F35.. it will however match if not exceed Raptor in manuverability.
Regarding sensors i think it will be up there between Raptor and F35 … i am basing this on the fact that if they take this shape, combine it with RAM coating we KNOW is avaliable to Russia ( or public for that matter) and use all the electronic curently avaliable on S35BM including 117S engines… you alredy have soemthing that will outmatch Eurocanards, and come close to F35 while giving enough worry to F22 more than current crop of 4.5G fighters.
I think i will leave this discussion at this point untill further more concrete information is avalible.
DJ.Precisely , ive made no comment about S-Duck , Blocker etc, until i get positive or negative proof one way or other. That PHOTOSHOPED (poorly may i add) photo this clown keeps posting is not the proof. I mean we even found original photo from which those blades were cut from, how much more evidence do you need for a photoshop job???
DJ.Yes Mr. Paralay…as always you are about the only reasonable sane voice in here. Your picture is 100% right…as your pictures have been consistently.
However you will agree that this prototype right now does NOT have a RAM blocker installed, and that what we are seeing with those fans is only the engine face.
And you will agree that there is no S-duct or covering of the engine face whatsoever in that intake (as your drawings indicate).
Such bitterness 🙂
Not all that suprizing coming from a troll who was telling us only 3 months ago that PAK FA will never fly. Now only thing he has to clutch to is one photoshoped image as if that proves anything.
Just go away.
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