BuranAfter this outcome Brits deserve a PM like Boris the bafoon. There will be significant impact on UK aviation both commercial and defence.
Europeans always had misgivings about UK and now will take their pound of flesh. Forget any nicely packaged deals with a sorry to see you leave card.
BuranNigeria waiting for US to approve Super Tucano sale
The revelation came in a statement announcing that the apron at Yola Air Base was being expanded in preparation for the arrival of new platforms that have been ordered for the NAF, which include Mil Mi-35M helicopters, CAC/PAC JF-17 Thunder fighters, and PAC Super Mushshak trainers.
http://www.janes.com/article/61029/nigeria-waiting-for-us-to-approve-super-tucano-sale
BuranWhen we started ISIS was estimated to be 30K strong. So many bombs later and they estimate the same number. What the hell are they hitting?
15 years of bombing and occupation did not break Taliban’s back, and they are the more docile version of ISIS! Just goes to show when you have local support no amount of outside force can completely destroy a group.
Taliban don’t control any territory but they are always at the door, waiting for their chance. Something similar might happen with ISIS, they might loose territory but will remain a thorn in the backside for many years.
BuranIm specifically talking about non program members.
Or nations that havent put up funds.1. Greece: While Greece probably couldn’t, and should not be buying anything, I have a sneaking suspicion that the minute Turkey starts taunting them with F-35,s they will want their own. Even if they have to rob a bank ( or the EU) to get them.
2. Germany: The Tornado currently will start being retired at around 2025. The plane even in its current state is woefully inadequate to face down a resurgent Russia. Will the Germans put on their big boy Lederhosen and finally spring for their own defense?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic … ay-404109/3.Poland: The country currently has 48 F-16s 30 Mig 29s and 18 su-22s. These will all need to be replaced in the near future. While F-35s might cause sticker shock at the onset,The Polish might save a lot of money consolidating to 1 type. Its likely the Su-22s and mig-29s are obsolete on the Russian frontier either way. The U.S. has just released billions in funds to reinforce NATOS eastern flank. Wouldn’t it be in Poland’s interests to ask for foreign military aid? 1-2 Billion towards F-35s would serve both countries interests.
4. India: Can we trust them NOT to sell secrets to Russia? The Rafael deal is history, and the T-50 is on the ropes.
Now is LM time to step forward. As I have mentioned before a FACO line would ease the concerns of the build in India crowd. The main issue here is trust.5. Gulf Arab states: Not likely because of Israel.
6. Spain: Will they return to the F-35 fold? They have currently made a decision to extend the life of their Harriers.
This was a good move, but will only last as long as they don’t need to actually use the Spanish navy.
1 Major conflict or emergency could quickly bring them back.7. Taiwan: Not likely unless there is a MAJOR provocation from China.
Discuss. Who do you believe will be the next participant in the F-35 program?
Problem with India will not only be trust but also cost and “make in India” requirements. If they are dragging their feet on Rafales what is going to happen with a more expensive and restrictive aircraft!
The most readily available market would have been middle east. They could have sold at least 100 of these by now, however US has committed to not be the one to change the balance of power from Israel’s favour. Not sure what is going to happen when alternative “stealth” designs are available on the market, especially if Iran goes for one of these. I think US is missing an opportunity here.
BuranHmm. Turns out those 8 Blk 52s themselves are in doubt, forget the “V” ..
Anyway,
PAFs long term planning looks to be headed to a single source supplier in China. US wont subsidize anymore, EU ware is non affordable, Russia too will charge heavy. Only option left is China.
Which gets me to the most important point. The JF-17 was supposedly a 50:50 JV between Sino-Pak with Pakistan press/posters telling everyone of how Pakistan actually contributed 50 % to workshare on the jet. Why is Pakistan not going in for 100 % ?
No one in the 1980s in PAF thought that the US would leave them stranded wrt the F-16. With China going to be PAFs solitary supplier, it has HUGE leverage over PAF and Pakistan. Who knows what they might do 10/20 years from here on.
The next Jet for PAF post the JF-17 is either the J-10 or the J-31. PAF will end up going back to an importing airforce from being the only airforce on the planet that makes its own fighters.
Why is PAF not pursuing its next gen fighter project on its own or even in collaboration with the Chinese?
The JF-17 has so much of PAF “input” and its success with PAF is evident. By doing nothing it will risk its ‘input’ and expertise gained from manufacturing 50% of the JF17 go to waste.
1- US Pak relations are seasonal, no one thought Pakistan will get a single bullet from US in late 90’s and few years later they signed up for Block 52s, P3Cs etc etc so hold your horses as see how this plays out.
2- Aviation industry can not be started from scratch by participating in a joint venture, that too with limited resources. There are simply not enough funds to start a 5th Gen project, and why reinvent the wheel? if there is a suitable platform available than just buy that and invest your scare funds into something more meaningful.
India has been pumping money into the LCA project for 30 years and even today nearly half of its components are imported. Maybe India needs to increase its “input” in LCA above 50% first. Its easier said than done.
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/Made-up-in-India-Many-Indigenous-Arms-of-DRDO-Have-Imported-Parts/2016/03/13/article3324605.ece
BuranIt changes a lot.. IMHO, Pakistan won’t use own money to purchase F-16s for nearly $100mil a pop, the idea was simply to boost F-16 numbers at the expense of the US. Now that this deal is a goner, they might use the funds from that pot to get AH-1Z or something similar, instead. This might have adverse effect on potential helo purchases from Russia (Mi-35M or Mi-28N), right.. but there will be no new F-16s..
Doesn’t make sense to spend 100million a pop of your own funds to buy a F-16 Block 52 especially if its not coming with any new technology .e.g AESA etc. Would be much better to spend that money on getting second hand F-16s and upgrading these to Block 52 standard. If any funds are left over they could be used for JF-17 block 3/4 development.
For Pakistan there are so many strings attached to the F-16 deals that its not worth the hassle unless it is heavily subsidised.
Having said that, the military aid budget is still sitting there, if not F-16 another weapon would end up in Pakistan.
BuranCheck the frontage of the area you claim “all assets” will sanitize or monitor and then consider what assets Pakistan has and who owns them.
Coastal batteries with PN. Will PAF donate its ZDK-03/Erieyes (how many does PAF have BTW, one Erieye destroyed anyhow by the Taliban) whilst IAF is busy hammering it? It will use its assets as its primary ones.
How much is the sensor footprint of a single helicopter?
Why would the IN NOT attempt to misdirect and actually take out PN sensors? That’s what the entire basis of carrier ops is.. put a Ka-31 at an axis far away from the carrier.. datalink it to all ships.
The point is coastal batteries are not as potent assets as you make them out to be.. they are very tied to sensor and acquisition networks (and both India & Pakistan) which are limited in the subcontinent. India has the edge in kit but also a much bigger coastline to protect.. even its coastal batteries will suffer from such issues.
However, ironically, its non high tech support might work (won;’t get too much into that)..
Why does India need to blockade a port as versus periodically striking it with long range missiles or air strikes from a carrier many many Km out which is constantly relocating?
Come on Buran, this is as unrealistic as it gets. As a Pakistani it may be pumped up to say this, but the reality speaks otherwise that the balance of power is way too lopsided. If the IN did not have point defense systems or soft kill systems or long range cover, all together, it would be one thing, but you are talking of a mobile force all of which has overlapping fields of defense when properly deployed.
IN can actually screen or sink ships from far away by announcing a blockade or even periodically attack Pak infra.. it need not play into one set of scenarios. Ironically, its PNs subs which are the biggest threat.. but even there in IN gets its chopper acquisition on track, the sensor reach offered by say submarines detecting a blockade flotilla and silently networking that back may also be out of the question.. do the PN subs have ELF for instance or SATCOM?
Say what?? Are you even aware of a MiG-29 K fit?
India does not have to make repeated incursions but cause enough damage periodically that messes up the port ops.
Of course it goes both ways. But do remember that in 1999, India didn’t even have CIWS missile systems yet it blockaded Pakistani ports, something which Nawaz et al admitted later on caused significant push to have Pakistan vacate its remaining positions and leave.
Point is the PN is the weakest of the three arms.
In a war, both sides will take hits, but the more you hit India, the more India will resort with disproportionate force. Its the nature of things. And size and tech are only on India’s side vis a vis the naval line up.. conventionally, there is very little to support the PN over (apart from their Agostas) which si not to say they can’t retaliate.. but its lopsided.
We can debate all we like but the real outcome can be very different so no point in wasting time on this, one thing is clear that given the massive increase in capabilities on both sides (AEW, BVR, AAR) its not going to be a cakewalk.
BuranVery soon, sure. A subsonic missile with limited over the horizon support and its all well folks, dont ask questions.
The IN will of course ask its MiG-29s and Ka-31s to stand down so that PN and its magic carpets and P3Cs etc can all fly around unimpeded. And here I was, thinking that one of the key aims of getting aircraft like the MiG-29 was to take down enemy surveillance and target fixing assets. Of course, if the IN does press a button, it might even include Brahmos and Uran strikes on land targets. Not sure if that helps your argument any though.
Why does India need to blockade Gwadar when it can just bomb it?
And why would India be deterred when it has BVR fighter and AEW too & any decent mission planning would take that it into account? Are you perchance of thinking war as some game wherein the Indian side would avoid any risk?Oh my, unlike Pakistan India fields more subs (most of which Kilos and HDWs are upgraded to current standards including LACM capability for the upgraded Kilos) and also fields Tu-142 LRMPs, Il-38s (all upgraded) & Do-228s. All of which dwarf Pakistan’s holdings.
Pakistan has how many modern subs exactly (3 Agostas?) and how many P-3Cs (after the Taliban took out a few?) – hardly JMSDF capability here..PS: India has operated a coastal battery with the Styx class missile for ages. It has Brahmos variants available locally. It is evaluating a stealthy passive guidance system for acquisition (NSM has been mentioned). In short, the simple point is the IN is long familiar with coastal battery operational deployment procedures (pros and cons) and hence how to mitigate against them. Incidentally, the Ka-31 acquisition and the naval datalinking program was driven in part by the need to detect long range low flying targets and then vector appropriate assets to deal with them. Nothing is perfect not even the mighty Aegis/Hawkeye combination but again, it doesn’t have to be perfect but just allow enough IN assets to increase their survivability to bring their firepower to bear and in that, the IN has also a long lead over Pakistan with Brahmos, Uran and other missiles available.
So while coastal batteries are useful they won’t deter India that much.
I fail to understand why over the horizon support is limited? unless you think at the start of the war all assets (P3s, Erieye, ZDK03 and helicopters) will simply run away or wait around for Mig29s to come bomb them.
All India can try is limited strikes with long range weapons but that is not going to blockade a port. IN will have to accept massive losses in order to get near enough for a blockade. MIG29s are good for attacking targets in uncontested airspace but they are not a solution for attacking ground targets where the airspace is defended by AEW and BVR fighters. They will be intercepted long before they launch their weapons. Gawadar is more than 1000km away from Indian bases so any expedition with IAF AEW and tankers will be limited in frequency.
On the flip side some major Indian ports are within the striking range of Pakistani cruise missiles, but that would not result in a permanent blockade.
BuranJF-17 is a good aircraft but it is watered down for Pakistan needs. Pakistan wanted something to replace the J-7 but
1. doesn’t have the engineering background to design the aircraft on their own
2. doesn’t have the manufacturing skills to produce itso China had to
1. design the whole thing
2. design it to the limitations of Pakistani manufacturingChina could design the J-10 or j-31 for Pakistan but doesn’t mean they can build it. It had to be simple enough but capable and the JF-17 does a good job on that.
the Tejas is inferior to the F-20. it is heavier, worse thrust to weight ratio, higher wing loading, and radar capability about the same. I think the biggest limitation is that they chose to build a design over 1 meter shorter and a pure delta. this severely limits the growth potential and upgrade of the Tejas. But either way, Indian bureacracy will kill the program.
Give Pakistan a fleet of JF-17 or F-20, it will have the performance edge over the Tejas.
I think it is too early to judge LCA performance. We will have to wait few years so a handful can be inducted in IAF in their final (block-1??) version. The parameters keep on changing on a routine basis so the end result could be very different once it is inducted.
Buran[
The IN is more bothered with a proper navy like the PLAN, not the PN, which lets face it, apart from its submarines is not much of a naval force.
The usual braggadacio apart, is even one coastal battery in service? And what would these coastal batteries rely on for 300-400 km (hilarious!) targeting? Would they even know where to target if the IN takes out these froms from afar & the IAF chips in.
The PN is inducting basic capabilities which its opponent has had for decades (coastal batteries). Of course, to Pakistanis like yourself, its the beginning of a new world, but I suspect to the IN, its the least of their concerns since its something they have long prepared, and acquired for.
LOL
– According to the news the missile have been inducted, so even if a battery is not operational it would be very soon. As for what they will be using for targeting, what about P3Cs and ATR72s? not to forget Erieyes and ZDK3 AEW. Unless you are hoping that IN will press a button somewhere and everything will go away.
– Costal missile batteries are just another way of deterring India. Any attempt to blockade Gawadar will have to deal with BVR fighters backed by AEW while P3Cs patrol under their cover. And that’s ignoring the coastal missiles or fighters armed with AShMs.
– Basic capabilities like a decent submarine or LRMPA? Last time I checked India only started operating P-8s few years ago and the first Scorpene has only been recently completed.
BuranLOL, as if. With Shtil, Barak-1, Barak-2, MiG-29Ks & Ka-31, the IN is well placed to handle the AShM “threat” if there is even one, from the Pakistani AF.
Its always been submarines which have been a greater challenge & even there with ALTAS procurement and focus on MPVs, progress is being made.
Better let Indian Navy know so they can stop wasting more funds on AShM threat. You will need “Shtil, Barak-1, Barak-2, MiG-29Ks & Ka-31” performing flawlessly together 24/7 to completely defeat the threat from costal missile batteries, if your fleet is in range.
BuranWell navy had better air defense systems, that’s Barak 8, and Navy’s air wing MiG 29 numbers can reach upto 45 in coming years,
Even with Baraks IN will not be risking their principal assets atleast 300-400km from Pakistani coast.
BuranCorrect.
On a related note, PAF had 40 mirages dedicated for maritime strike based out of karachi. Anyone knows what the plan is for the exocets these mirages carry once mirages retire?
Will the exocets be integrated with JF17s? or just be retired along with the mirages?
So JF17 can carry 2 ASMs instead of 1 on Mirage. Combined with AEW and the future AAR capability this should be a serious increase in headache for Indian Navy.
Further they seem to have inducted a medium/long range shore based ASM
BuranReportedly the No. 2 Squadron has received its first JF-17
What does the presence of 2 Naval officials in the ceremony tell us? purely out of courtesy or is there a message behind this?
BuranThe reason why PAF is going for Damocles despite having the WMD-7 integrated & in limited use (a PAF video of a strike on TTP showed WMD-7 symbology) is it’s limited detection range of 13 km. Experience with the Sniper has shown how valuable identifying targets at considerably longer ranges(a few seconds more may mean a clean strike vs collateral damage for example) via FLIR is. Since the Sniper can’t be integrated on to the Thunder, Litening is verboten, what is the next best option PAF has for the JF-17?
So does that mean JF17 is being used for precision strikes against Taliban? Any link to the video?
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