Why not be bullish on the future and do both? Future London would be very well served by the new airport AND and expanded LHR.
I should like to weigh in and emphasize that I was speaking in general terms. Airline seating does vary widely and exceptions to generalizations can always be found.
Furthermore, I would submit that airlines like Sinapore and Emirates are hardly representative of the majority of carriers in the world. I would place them at the very high end of the quality scale. Premium seating, meals, service, etc., they set a very, very high standard in pretty much everything they do.
Having said that, if I’m running an airline that is operating 380s, 747s, and 777-300 side by side, I can’t see any way that the 777 is not the least cost operator.
WRT to the comments about “other costs,” I have looked for public, current, data on landing fees and have found that airports apparently aren’t keen to have that information readily available to the public. I’m not saying it’s not there, but I haven’t found it yet. And then again, there are all the hidden costs…..how much does Lufthansa pay per month for a gate lease in FRA verus AA in DFW versus Air France in CDG? In fact, do they even have gate leases or do they have some other scheme? The devil is in the details, and this part of the discussion starts to diverge from the initial question about which airliner is most efficient.
Personally, I’ve always been kind of intrigued by head to head competitions, and there have been several (the 744 or 748 vs A380 is really not much of a comparison, they are very different animals, just look at the wing area difference). In particular, the four great airliner competitions that jump out at me are: 707 vs DC-8, DC-9 vs 737 Legacy, L1011 vs DC-10, and A320 vs 737NG. In each of these cases there was very close head to head competition and many interesting aspects. Often they used very similar engines, in some cases virtually the same with only a dash number change. And some of the airplane models were very, very close in terms of capability, for example the DC-9-32 and the 737-200. I’ve also found it interesting that the 737 Legacy was not the leader, but a response to the DC-9, in the same way the NG was only built as a response to the A320. Many observers always think of Boeing as a leader, and in each of those cases they were second to the marketplace.
I don’t have data in front of me but I believe the A380 has the lowest fuel burn per seat by a considerable margin (approx. 15-20%). This is because it has the most seats. Thus, Airbus often advertises it’s “cost advantage” over the smaller 747-8.
But, it is important to remember that fuel burn per seat is only one measure of “efficiency.” The Block Fuel burn on the A380 is the highest because it is the biggest airplane. Also, landing fees are much higher because the airplane weight so much more (it’s empty weight is about the weight of a fully loaded and fueled A321 at max takeoff weight). If the airplane is not full, you are lugging around an awful lot of weight for all those empty seats.
Most large International airlines have been choosing to order many planes for the “meat” of the market, ie, the middle of the seating range for the last 10-20 years. Thus the large numbers of 767’s, A330’s, and 777’s sold. These airplanes have the range to fly many of the long routes (4-5000NM), and are all twins so they are relatively efficient, but they are also much easier to fill year round than the 747 and A380. Airlines limit their possible upside profit potential by avoiding the larger planes, but also limit their risk to some extent.
Many factors affect fuel economy. Very long or very short routes tend to skew the results, as do winds, extra weight (for cargo or alternate fuel), and many other factors.
However, generally speaking, a common way to measure airliner efficiency is to calculate the amount of fuel burned per hour per seat. For example if a 757 is planned on a 4. 5 hour flight, and the trip burn is 35,000lb, and it is carrying 180 people, the number works out to be approx. 43 lb/hr/pax.
In general, a modern midsized turbofan powered aircraft such as the A320 series or 737NG will burn about 38-42 lb/hr/pax for a 2-4 hour flight. Often, there is very little difference between competing types, such as the A320 and NG. After all, they use exactly the same engines and are almost exactly the same size.
In general a twin (777) is more efficient than a tri (MD-11) or quad (A340). Thus the tapering off of A340 deliveries and increase of A330 orders as that program (330/340) has matured.
As mentioned, turboprop aircraft are very efficent, they burn considerably less than a jet/turbofan.
Airlines decide the specific aircraft types that to use on specific routes on the basis of demand forecasts. When they decide to enter a market, the estimate how many seats they can sell a day and at what yield. If they determine that the operation will be profitable then they operate the route. Airlines routinely change the “seat gauge” on particular days based on demand. Perhaps they are required to operate the flight seven days a week by regulatory authorites, in that case they will run a smaller airplane on slow days and run bigger airplanes on days with heavy demand.
I’m sure you know what you are talking about.
Indeed.
I’m not a lawyer, but I found this on wiki:”In some cases, depending on the exact wording, MoUs can have the binding power of a contract; as a matter of law, contracts do not need to be labeled as such to be legally binding”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorandum_of_understanding
and the dates that the various countries signed their MOU’s are widely available.
It seems to me to be very different than the tanker competition.
I’m have trouble discerning the cause of your confusion, but I’m trying to help in all good faith….:)
I know of at least one European land that isn’t getting the share they were first lead to believe.
Then they have a claim, after all, wasn’t there a contract?
At any rate, JSF is an entirely different situation than the tanker deal….the bottom line is that “the same argument” cannot be applied to ALL military purchases, least of all the JSF.
The same argument could be applied to all military sales, the JSF for example…….
Not really. The JSF program was completely different in that it had multi-national risk sharing partners that invested billions up front and have been extensively involved throughout the life of the project.
But you knew that didn’t you? What is the term for people who knowingly post content with the express intent of provocation?
So what if they are off in the technical comparison? The mainstream press normally messes up aviation technical stuff anyway, why should anyone expect any different?
The bottom lines, that the USAF is in absolute turmoil and that the U.S. in general has no money, are spot on. Thus, it gets printed by a respectible organization like Jane’s. I believe the entire JSF program is under severe threat.
It’s official:
IMHO, this is the precursor to putting the purchase off for several years, perhaps forever. Hate to say I told you so, but I posted in post 428:
“Actually, things are so screwed up in general, I’m not sure that ANY tankers will be procured. If McCain is elected, he has pledged to cut spending. That bodes poorly for the F-22 and new tankers. The trend has been towards cancelling programs for the last several years, the Navy has already taken a hit on their new destroyers and the Army has had several big programmes cancelled. If Obama gets elected, I can’t see his admin spending big defense dollars for any defense programs, they will concentrate on social programs. And the democrat congress has to appropriate money in any event, and the U.S. is broke.”
On top of the U.S. being broke (flat broke) and tettering on outright recession, there isn’t any great need for more tankers. If 700 F-15’s are replaced by only 183 F-22’s, and significant numbers of F-16’s continue to trickle out, and JSF continues to get pushed later and later, and there are only 100-150 strategic bombers left, aren’t 4-500 KC-135’s and 60 KC-10’s enough? After all, the 135’s were supposed to be good till 2040 when they were re-engined, they have very few flight hours and have been overmaintained compared to airliners. Perhaps as the USAF continues to downsize it will go back where it belongs, as part of the Army.
A severe U.S. recession will cause a severe world wide recession, and the main economic partner (China) cannot stand that, therefore it will not happen. Fannie mae and Freddie mac got the tanker money last week.
EDIT: PS, put a fork in 767 production forever. I expect the production line to close permanently now. If Boeing resubmits, it will be with the 787 or similar technology on a new airplane.
One gets the impression that having told the USAF what tanker they need (the 330), certain posters on this board are now feeling spunky enough to tell the USAF what kind of refueling equipment it needs (hose and drogue).
Really, isn’t the USAF best qualified to specify what it refueling method it prefers, or must that have European approval also?
There’s an interesting quote, I believe from the great Soviet Fleet Adm. S.G. Gorshkov that illustrates the double edged sword in these issues: “Better is the enemy of good enough”. On the one hand, this quote encapsulates the problem that you can spend more money and time forever to get something better, when there may be solutions available at less cost or effort that are good enough to do what you need done. On the other hand, though, settling for a “good enough” solution can kill you if you encounter an adversary using something “better”.
What you say is true.
I believe it was Stalin who said, “quantity has a quality all it’s own.” There are already almost twice as many SH’s in service than Raptors. There are many, many more (hundreds?) than Naval Rafales. Although not as capable as either of those (not even in the same league as the Raptor) I believe there are enough in service, with an effective training and support pipeline, with the support of E-2s and backed up by AEGIS, and with it’s goodies like AESA, et al., for the SH to be an extremely viable, very potent force.
Just noticed this. Even allowing for the obvious hyperbole of, “only fly 3 times a week” (as disproved in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, etc.), it reflects a position that appears frequently, and does require some analysis.
The F-14D did require more mmh/fh than an F/A-18E/F. Anyone who denies that is engaging in some serious spin. However, there are a number of reasons for that.
First, because it had more sensors and capabilities and performed higher, there was more to maintain.
Second, there’s no getting around that even it was much improved reliability-wise over the (never intended for production) A, a lot of the systems were still older. Hydraulics take more than FBW. On the other hand, on a Tomcat there was a lot more that was repairable instead of replaceable. The catch with the Hornet (and other later generation aircraft.) is that a lot of the subcomponents are designed to be replaced, not repaired, much like a lot of our current electronics/appliances. This meant that if a Hornet goes down because of one of these components and you’re out of stock, you can’t bring the plane back until one arrives because the components are not designed to be fixed (this also shifts where the costs are recorded). Not a big deal in the civilian world, but a consideration in a world where they’re shooting at you. Still, those older systems do take more fixin’.
Third, and this is a big one in these comparisons. The F-14D production was canceled early by the Department of Defense (not the Navy). As a result, it was a “lame duck” through its service life. It was not “career-enhancing” to be associated too strongly with the Tomcat, and in fact the aircraft was in many ways treated with downright hostility at the top level, especially in comparison with the official “Wonderplane”, the Hornet. This is one oft he reasons why AIM-120 was never approved for the F-14 even though it was the first aircraft to fire it, and the already planned integration of a number of a/g weapons, including Harpoon, was canceled. The plane never enjoyed the priority for parts and maintenance crews that the SH did. The point being that although the Tomcat never would have matched the mmh/fh of the Hornet, if it had enjoyed the funding priority and resources of the Hornet, or even just what would be normal for an in-service aircraft, the disparity would be nowhere near as great.
That’s why comparing the 48 mmh/fh maintenance requirements of the F-14D at the end of its career with that of the SH don’t reflect a true picture of what the difference would have been had the -14D been supported as a normal aircraft. For the record, in the early ’90s when the -14D was getting normal support, the mmh/fh were 17 and trending downward.
The question should be whether or not the higher capabilities of the -14D worth the (apples to apples) higher mmh required to get that capability?
Thanks for that fine comment. One normally doesn’t see such unemotional analysis when reading a SH vs. Tomcat thread, which all SH threads seem to devolve into. At any rate, I hope it is proving instructive for our thread starter.
I would only add two comments:
1. “Hydraulics take more than FBW. ” This is a common mistake. I believe the servomechanisms on both planes are hydraulically powered. It is only the control/communication system for the servos that is either FBW or cables/bellcranks.
2. Something like 1/3 (give or take) of Tomcats were crashed. I believe that the SH will not only be much more reliable, but safer also (funny how there is always a correlation). There will be many lives and a ton of money saved because the SH is so much safer/more reliable.
It would appear the union has a ton of leverage just now….the schedule appears barely achieveable even with full cooperation.
Then again, one never knows what goes on in the offices of these corporate giants. Perhaps a slowdown they could blame on labor would provide a convenient opportunity to regain institutional control of the program, thus killing two birds with one stone (making labor look like a bad guy while management catches up with what they should have been doing all along). Thus, more outsourcing.
The selection of the KC-30 (as the GAO ruling proved) was a complete screw up (no made in accordance with the solicitation). With the exception of there thus far being no accusations or proof of a Druyun/Sears-like event, it was easily as screwed up as the tanker lease was. You so convenietly seem to forget how, BECAUSE THE KC-30 SELECTION WAS SUCH A SCREW UP, “everyone” so lost confidence in the USAF’s ability to select a tanker that its authority to do so (already undermined) was taken away. And now, the very man who was responsible for making sure that NOTHING went wrong with the KC-X “competition” is THE man in control of the selection!
Actually, things are so screwed up in general, I’m not sure that ANY tankers will be procured. If McCain is elected, he has pledged to cut spending. That bodes poorly for the F-22 and new tankers. The trend has been towards cancelling programs for the last several years, the Navy has already taken a hit on their new destroyers and the Army has had several big programmes cancelled. If Obama gets elected, I can’t see his admin spending big defense dollars for any defense programs, they will concentrate on social programs. And the democrat congress has to appropriate money in any event, and the U.S. is broke.