One such Tu-214 ‘special mission’ aircraft:

that is why china try to do things on their own. india need to realize that it should not depend on outside for so much.
indians smart, they can make their own things if they have courage.

Both China and India have the same objective. The difference is historical, not philosophical. Before the Sino-Soviet split China quite happily worked with Soviet technology, the fruits of which are still with it today in the form of J-7, H-6, etc. And after the rapproachment with the west (and before Tiananmen Square) China happily made use of western technologies also, e.g. Blackhawks, Spey engines. And after the fall of the Soviet Union China readily imported Flankers from cash-strapped Russia. China’s greater degree of self-sufficiency today is the product of its more fraught international history, not some principled aversion to foreign hardware.

Even if India had wished to scorn external support this would’ve fraught with danger in the face of Pakistan backed both by the United States and China — to say nothing of the looming spectre of a Soviet-armed China itself.

India’s path to self-sufficiency has been and will be a longer one than China’s, and there have been many inefficiencies and missteps along the way. Yet the end goal is self-sufficiency and India will get there, whilst taking full advantage of the international market to ensure that self-sufficiency does not come at the cost of competitiveness.

But Sweden had to do an abrupt about turn with what appears to be a bit of arm-twisting. An August 6, 1976 cable (1976STOCKH04230_b, secret) titled “Saab-Scania requests for U.S. permission to export Viggen and license to India” appears to confirm this with a blunt message: “The USG, after careful consideration, has concluded that no version of the Viggen containing any classified U.S. components would be acceptable for transfer to India. It would also oppose any transfer to India, for local production, of the advanced U.S. technology represented in the Viggen’s aerodynamic design, engine and flying controls, navigation system, electronic components and weapons systems.”

Not exactly news, but it would’ve been nice to have these cables to reference a couple years back. *grumble*

JF-17s may go up to as much as 250 rather than 150, particularly since J-10s are not going through (this is an opinion shared by senior forum members and also given in publications, see for instance AMR, 2012).

[…]

There are new reports suggesting a LO JF-17 coming ahead. Also specialized JF-17s for niche roles, and 2 seaters.

JF-17 is ideal as PAF mainstay/workhorse. Supplement with limited numbers of J-31 — same engine! — from mid-2020s…

its not that reason that has prevented other manufacturers from selling to Pakistan. The fact is that they cannot afford to buy anything that isn’t given on credit (such as from China) or as part of military aid.

Perhaps, but in future Indian sensitivities will become increasingly important for nations dealing with Pakistan. There are two facets to this: first the rise of India as an economic power, and secondly, for the United States, India’s role in counter-balancing China. In much the same way as Chinese sensitivities complicate arms sales to Taiwan, Indian sensitivities will complicate sales to Pakistan, albeit likely not to the same extent.

I am just wondering how Pakistan evaluates the notion of being ‘abandoned’ by the United States, i.e. does this suggest they should buy F-16s now while they can, either on account of the performance of the aircraft themselves or out of concern of becoming too dependent on China? Or does it rather suggest that they should not buy more F-16s so as not to expose themselves to potential future supply interruptions?

I know Pakistan’s relations with Russia have improved in recent years (paralleling the downturn in US-Pakistan relations) but it is difficult to see this progressing very far given the Indian elephant in the room. Civil projects and Mi-17V5s maybe…

You’re sidestepping the most likely scenario; the one that was the reality of WWII.

The most likely major conflict scenario involves Australia being sucked into a conflagration that has nothing to do with us and which we have no interest in participating in. The greatest investment Australia could make in its future security is to extricate itself from the American security web in which it is now embedded, and which serves to make the regional nationalisms, troubled histories, and regional flashpoints in and about the South China Sea somehow Our Problem. Australia has no natural conflict with China, and to ally ourselves with nations that do only serves to imperil us.

Regarding the J-10B, there were reports some years ago of the PAF signing a contract to acquire at least a couple of squadrons by 2015-16, so these may yet materialise. However, given the weaker economic conditions, may well be delayed or even cancelled altogether.

At this rate it remains to be seen whether even PLAAF will have J-10B by 2015-16! Between Pakistan fiscal circumstances and PLAAF reluctance to cede orders, I think chances of J-10 for Pakistan this decade are remote.