MATCH , STATE of ART , Based on what demonstrable ability? And MATCH BY WHEN? EVENTUALLY is too general, eventually they could make a decent 4th generation fighter…Eventually a nation x could come out today with a fighter that is equivilant to F-15, F16block 50..but it would be TOO LATE

I am not only referring to matching some arbitrary achievement e.g. F135 engine technology, I am referring to trend of asymptotically approaching level of American progress in technology fields. Let us say the technology gap between US and China was once thirty years. Now it is twenty years. In future it will be ten years.

It is probably true that even in 2040 the United States will still hold an edge of some kind in many technology fields .. but what of it? China does not need to match technology level in order to defeat, deter, or otherwise influence United States … it merely needs to be competitive. That final 5% can be very expensive and perhaps even unwise.

An analogy to the contemporary American ‘way of war’ is to Germany in WW2. It was the Germans who largely had the best technology, and the best training (at least for the first few years of the war) and so on. And not to put too fine a point on it, but they lost. They were defeated by volume in the form of manpower from the Soviet Union and industrial output (quantity not quality) from the United States. If America is analogous to Germany in WW2, China is analogous to the United States.

It would require some incredible ****ups on behalf of Chengdu for J-20 to not have significant baseline advantages over F-35, with possible exception of RCS.

That J-20 will match the state of the American art in all respects (particularly avionics, engine, sensor fusion) upon induction is unlikely. But then the Chinese will have decades to work on that problem. As the success and evolution of the Flanker platform demonstrates, get the airframe right and the sky is the limit. In contrast F-35 limitations are forever.

Only consolation is that F-35 isn’t the be-and-end-all for the United States, which has F-22 in the present and F/A-XX in the future. But then both of those programs have and will continue to be undermined by the F-35 hoovering up all resources in sight to relatively slight strategic return.

In any case Americans as reigning champions will not accept China as real contender until demonstrated on field of battle, much as west dismissed Japan until she defeated Russia in 1905. Late 2020s to 2030 would seem a good time for Chinese to put Americans to the test in this respect: should have J-20 (and possibly J-31) fielded in triple digits while Americans will have only limited NGB and no F/A-XX.

If you post as attachment it is shrunk down to forum window but people are able to click and access full-size version.

ABC 4-Corners F-35 Interview with Orlando Carvalho, Lockheed Martin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXkKjRBOdfw

A meeting of two jackasses. Carvalho is standard issue corporate slime, but the interviewer channelling Richard Dawkins with those supercilious glasses of his is even more deserving of a punch in the face. :p

Besides that Your statement in regard to the PLAAF is wrong. The L-15 has been ordered in substantial numbers, will be introduced as the JL-10 and the first production airframe has just been rolled out a few days ago.

Excellent news.

GDP is a lagging indicator of the robustness of the businesses climate. And the robustness of the businesses climate is contingent upon innovation and wise use of resources born of a Capitalist system.

Well the first five words are right: GDP is a lagging indicator. That’s why the future story is told in a combination of growth figures coupled with population/demographic trends and modified by a variety of secondary metrics (incl. opportunities/roadblocks to innovation). And the results of such analyses are clear: if the United States wants to remain #1, it should prepare mass nuclear strike or genetically-targeted biological warfare against Han Chinese ethnic group, because nothing else is going to turn back the tide. I’m sure your next Presidential candidates will fall over themselves to offer the most comforting blather about American exceptionalism tho.

Of course in the long-run its doubtful the United States will even be able to hold #2 against a rising India, and then there are the possibilities of European and South American federalism to consider. Revived Slavic and Ottoman blocs round out the more distant possibilities. One thing is certain: the next century is going to look very different from the preceding one.

Perhaps you will start assuming that the US also knows what its doing after all 🙂

But there is so much evidence to the contrary, from Iraq to F-35. :p

I am not saying that the Kinematic performance of the F-35 is stellar. What i am considering is the overall effectivness of it as a weapons system and what it provides the USAF and USN as far as capability upturn. Stealth and mission flexibility (Varients) has meant that some of this performance is traded off, yet we know nothing about how the J-20 performs. WE SIMPLY KNOW NOTHING ABOUT IT. It could have an advantage when it comes to all out agility, but the F-35 could easily have advantage elsewhere…You are only considering the weakest point of the F-35, while you do not even know what the WEAKEST POINT of the J-20 is. That to me is an unfair comparison. While people dismiss the F-35 based on its kinematic performance, they readily assume that the J20 is at par or better elsewhere and superior in kinetic performance thereby prooving to be a better weapons system. I am sorry i cannot buy this argument. I do not know J20’s range, Its supercruising speed and range on a typical 5th gen profile (Internal bays etc). I do not know what its radar is, how well its development and testing is progressing, i do not know how many operational AESA’s China has onboard its fighters, I cannot peg their advancement with any reference when it comes to AESA or targetting and integrated sensors. Sorry i cannot evaluate without known NOTHING other then pictures.

And in the absence of hard information to the contrary, you assume that F-35 is competitive with J-20 despite observed deficiencies in thrust, airframe size, radar aperture, and likely deficiencies across kinematic regime more broadly. You assume that —

— the Chinese are incapable of matching the achievements of glorious Americans re: AESA, EO DAS, etc even though systems can evolve over lifespan in contrast to F-35 deficiencies which are integral to airframe.
— that Chinese have made some serious conceptual error along the lines of that which was made with F-35.
— or even that the Chinese are completely incompetent and that J-20 has the range of an F-5, the speed and agility of a B-52, and the avionics of an F-105 Thunderchief. We don’t have HARD DATA so maybe it is true. :rolleyes:

This is precisely what I meant by complacency.

Yes, I make the assumption that China can broadly approach American levels of systems performance and integration over the coming decades. And yes, I dare to look decades into the future — as should anyone who proposes to build a modern combat aircraft.

And indeed that is the problem. JSF was conceived in the mid-90s at the height of American hyperpower and is basically designed to execute Desert Storm over again. Entering service in 2020 the world has already evolved beyond this picture, and will continue to evolve much further over the course of the aircraft’s service life, such that F-35 will see the emergence of a world order almost completely unrecognisable from that in which it was conceived.

Prudence demands certain assumptions. And of course there are many types of prudence — even fiscal prudence. Perhaps when American carriers are on the bottom of the sea and China is marching across the Pacific you will be prepared to grant that the Chinese know what they are doing after all. And perhaps when F-35 production is wound up after 1400 units Scooter will be prepared to admit that the rivers of gold are not endless and LM is not magic. I’d like to think that I’d have matured beyond the point of ‘I told you so’ by then… but it’s unlikely. Even when the Chinese marines are landing in Darwin I’ll at least derive some satisfaction from cursing the cunts who got us involved in all this. :p