The other thing is the J-20 is going to be the most expensive and complex fighter China has ever built. They won’t be able to build them like the J-10 let alone the J-7.
China’s defence budget today is about three times the size it was when J-10 entered service in 2005. Of course a lot of that is inflation, but even so China can afford to produce J-20 in numbers and should move as quickly as practicable to do so.
What China probably can’t afford to do is produce J-20 in numbers whilst producing a bunch of other stuff as well — which is fine, because China shouldn’t want to get stuck with a mountain of 3rd/4th generation aircraft in a 5th generation era.
While it would seem natural for J-20 to replace Flanker-type aircraft in production, the CAC/SAC split probably supports deprecating J-10 production first. Ongoing naval requirements for J-15 and the greater ongoing currency of the Flanker design in the strike role as against J-20’s more limited capabilities and advantages in that respect also argue for retaining Flanker production whilst deprecating J-10.
Assuming that JH-7 production has already ended, I would hope and expect that one of J-10 or J-11/15/16 will have wrapped up by 2020 to make way for full-rate production of J-20, and both lines by 2025.
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