RiiNigeria is pretty scary. A century from now it could surpass China as the world’s second most populous nation. Of course even excluding famines, etc. there’s probably only a 50/50 chance that Nigeria will even be around a century from now, being a country that was nailed together from three distinct cultures for Britain’s administrative convenience, and which has never really gotten over it. But whatever entities do exist in the region are going to be home to an awful lot of people.
Fun thought for the day: over the course of the 21st century, Africa’s share of global population is set to nearly triple from a baseline 13.1% in 2000 (800m people) to 38.5% (4.2Bn) by 2100.
RiiHow useful would attack helicopters actually be in the presence of sophisticated fighter and SAM threats?
Well, I taught Helo v Fighter tactics for many years and it is surprising how hard it is for a FJ driver. The USAF were so worried by the arrival of the Hind that they conducted a trial…
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/J-CATCH
…which didn’t do their confidence much good.
If the Helo is properly equipped, and the crew trained, the Helo has a good chance of surviving and, depending on type, a fair crack at shooting back.
But … Tom Clancy taught me that fast jets eat helicopters for breakfast. 🙁
RiiRiiThe point is to build your own aircraft for both economic and strategic reasons, obviously. And whilst initial versions of KF-X will be inferior to F-35, there’s no reason why it couldn’t ultimately evolve into a superior platform. I doubt that the Koreans are going to settle for the sluggish performance and uninspiring agility of F-35. As mentioned previously, I suspect ROKAF is thinking long-term with this project to an era of operating a largely indigenous air force centred around KF-X and its descendants. In the long run, there’s no reason why they couldn’t build their own next-gen engine for it too in partnership with Rolls Royce, GE, etc.
Riifrom where this forecasts comes. these are highly unreliable. by 2050 medical advances will be enough that retirement age will be closer to 80. so concept of elderly and working age will be not there
Medical and other advances not only increase productive lifespan, but total lifespan and therefore the period that elderly citizens have to be supported by society, with the final decade often becoming extraordinarily expensive, and increasingly so on account of all those new-fangled technologies. Similar story at the other end of the chain with the so-called ‘knowledge economy’, where with increasing standards of education adolescents can be classed as ‘non-productive’ well into their 20s. The cumulative effect jostles the curves and dates around a bit, but doesn’t change the big picture.
and who will built bullet trains, nuclear reactors, hydro dams
Well it certainly won’t be the elderly, medical advances or no. :rolleyes:
You bring up valid points and then run in strange directions with them. I’ve already acknowledged that potential futures for India include national dissolution, ‘black death’ scenarios, and potentially never becoming a superpower, so I’m not sure what you’re trying to accomplish by pointing out these challenges facing India and other developing nations.
RiiTo me it is entirely pointless building something that would compete with F-35 whether it were done alone or in association with LM or any other OEM. Much more sensible would be to spend the funds on another project or not spend them at all.
Just as F-35 was designed around the United States’ unique requirements, KF-X is evidently being designed first-and-foremost around Korea’s requirements with export a secondary consideration, and this could well be a wise decision: the export market ain’t what it used to be, and most of it will have been gobbled up by F-35 or Gripen E before KF-X could take the stage regardless of configuration.
Riiyou should not rely on this unreliable data. Even the present data is unreliable let alone future forecasts. China did not have 1.8b population in 2000.
Like I said, they are not population figures but scores derived from working age population adjusted by total dependency ratio. The numbers themselves are not important, only the relative difference between them. But if you want it in strict population terms:
China 2050
Working Age: 850m
Elderly: 325m
Children: 200m
India 2050
Working Age: 1100m
Elderly: 215m
Children: 315m
Russia in 2050 will have around 70m people of working age. So if we take the ‘Russia’ as a unit of measurement, we can see that by 2050 India has 3.5 Russias worth of manpower advantage over China.
and why is population so important in year 2050? when in future robotics will be more important for industry and military. supercomputers will be flying UCAVs from the ground .
I already mentioned that continuing structural economic changes may further undermine the advantages conferred by a large workforce. Nonetheless, it will remain a significant input. USA is not the world’s largest economy because it is the best structured or best educated or has the best technology or greatest resources, but rather because it has a much larger population than other countries that score similarly (or better) by other measures, the next most populous advanced nation being Japan which was, of course, until recently also the world’s #2 economy until it was overtaken by the world’s most populous nation. Size isn’t everything, and its significance may diminish further in time, but it is and will remain a critical factor.
RiiI chose 2050-2080 as the bookends of India’s period of greatest comparative ascendency for two reasons: by 2050 China will be in significant demographic decline (although not nearly so catastrophic or as soon as many westerners like to imagine: in 2050 China still has a lower total dependency ratio than the United States) whilst India will be hitting its demographic peak. By 2080 India’s demographic peak will have passed as Africa comes increasingly to the demographic fore.
From the UN medium-series global population projections, 2012 ed., if you take working age population size over time, and adjust for total dependency ratio (i.e. the numbers of children and the elderly that said working-age population has to support), you get the following ‘scores’ for net human potential (the numbers themselves are not important, only the relationships between them):
USA
2000: 373
2050: 371
2100: 378
China
2000: 1812
2050: 1349
2100: 792
India
2000: 1031
2050: 2292
2100: 1470
Nigeria
2000: 80
2050: 371
2100: 1153
You can see the basic story: in 2000 China was the demographic monster, a mantle India assumes before 2050, and then well before 2100 the torch has passed again to Africa. Of course, such measures of ‘raw human potential’ are merely one input into economic and national power, but an important one when paired with technological and other forms of structural development.
RiiFourth.:) First two, 2001 and 2002 were more or less “YF” type. Then 2011 and now 2012 appear to be representative of the production version. They are moving very fast, we might see ANOTHER prototype by the end of this year.
Oops, it seems I mentally fused the first two prototypes into one. 😮
Impressive progress regardless.
RiiThe Americans at least did not try to shift the blame on someone other.
Err, yes they did. And who can forget this gem: “I will never apologise for the United States; I don’t care what the facts are.” — future President of the United States George H. W. Bush.
RiiCongrats on third prototype; looking forward to some great pics in the weeks ahead!
RiiOnly resource rich and less susceptible to global warming nations will always be in driving seat.
You’re right: there is considerable uncertainty about India’s future precisely because its period of greatest comparative ascendency (~2050-2080) will be characterised by a number of regional and global stressors. China and the United States will almost certainly be economically and militarily strong enough to ride out any difficulties that arise — securing their global interests with force, if need be, but its unclear whether India will be in a position to do the same. In addition, there are continuing structural economic changes that may undermine the advantages one would traditionally associate with India having a population equal to China and the United States combined, and a workforce significantly larger than Europe (incl. Russia) and the United States combined.
The first half of the 20th century demonstrated the uncertainty that underlies all such projections by derailing or partly derailing the trajectories of three of the four then up-and-coming powers: Germany, Japan, the United States, and Russia. Come the end of the 21st century it’s possible that India may have eclipsed China to emerge as the world’s single most powerful nation. On the other hand, even without catastrophic derailment in the form of e.g. national dissolution, ‘black death’ scenarios, etc. it’s entirely possible that India might never assume the mantle of a superpower. It’s an exciting time for humanity, and one can rightly say that in India, more than any other nation, all things are possible: hers is the story of humanity in microcosm, from its greatest glories and most magnificent dreams to its most pernicious flaws and darkest miseries.
RiiSo Australia wants to send 200+ armed police and military personnel to the crash site.
… yeah, no way this could go wrong. :rolleyes:
RiiHow do you figure? Neither need the other critically when it comes to defense.
I suspect Russia’s defense-industrial ambitions — which seem scarcely to have diminished in scope (as opposed to numbers) from the Soviet Union — outstrip its domestic resources. Along with China, India is the only major source of external funding available. The absence of such funding in future would hardly be a disaster, but some projects that may have gone forward under a JV will have be canceled or scaled back in order to fund greater priorities. For example, India has probably contributed very little to BrahMos besides funding, yet that funding — and the work funded — has been important in keeping the relevant arms of Russian industry ticking over, freeing up funds for use in other projects and paving the way for the development next-generation capabilities.
RiiBoth Ukraine and Russia are Thugocracies. The leaders’ primary purpose is to consolidate power. Helping the Ukranian and Russian peoples lead better lives is last priority of their list of things to do.
As for the US and most western governments, I classify them as Ineptocracies. Bungling fools, every “leader” amongst them.
A djcross post that I agree with — don’t see that every day.
Besides the political motives behind the west’s obsession with Vladimir Putin, about which I’ve already posted, I think the most remarkable (or troubling) aspect of the media war that’s gone on is NOT that the west bought into the ‘Russia = Evil’ narrative, but that’s it has simultaneously bought into the ‘Kiev = Good & Trustworthy’ narrative, which speaks both to simple ignorance, and more complicated phenomena such as the human preference for simple and comforting narratives, and the preferred narratives of various western governments which almost silently become reflected in the media coverage of the host nation. You would think that after Iraq, Syria, Egypt, etc. that the media would learn that the world is a little more complicated than the latest superhero film would have it, but it doesn’t seem so.
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