How many of it does the PLAF operate anyway ?

Around 900 with around 300 being J-7E or J-7G models.

We went through this underwing hardpoints argument before. I posted photos of Su-30s with the same number as in this photo. Look it up.

Guess what aircraft and what missile….

Its an Su-30.

How do you know that ?

The third digit indicates the type. A 9 would indicate a Z-9. A 7 is used for the Mi-17 series.

I only pointed that out in case other parts of the photo are photoshopped as well. I find it interesting this version, which I thought was a transport, has the rocket pods. No reason it can’t I suppose.

Ah……What was the RADAR being tested??

PS:

1: Is this a real JH-7A hot, hot outta the oven or that green/white mock-up
2: JH-7…..Block 2??

Looks like a J-7 from the CFTE in the background. Are they getting ready to paint the number? If so, its gonna be a PLAAF bird.

Found this associated with the JH-7 pod photo.

The two plane production per month probably lasted as long as the supply of engines and that wasn’t much.

Without a sure source of engines then it would seem premature to set up a second production line which, IIRC, would be need to get to that rate.

I think your rationale about the engines has merit. It doesn’t answer the question of putting the plane in the 44th. I know we’ve gone over this in the past and I don’t want to now but why would you shelve what is believed by some to be your best fighter just to get a better deal on the engines? It would seem CAC would get enough to keep working and then work on the negotiations for down the road. I supose you could have a number of planes that str far enough along that all you need is the engine but that strategy would seem risky. Otherwise, they have had factory sitting idle. A lot of possibilites to explain this either way.

Chengdu won’t be proposing the F-7MF variant of the J-7 if the FC-1 is J-7 based.

I thought the F-7MF was dead. I think a plane called the Super-7 built by Chengdu would certainly have its roots in the J-7. After all, Chengdu has had years to experiment with the J-7, including the J-7FS, to be able to advance to the FC-1 with a lot less trouble than it would with the J-10 from scrach.

But there may have been a near mishap—which I believe to be engine related—that may have temporarily scared the wits out of the PLAAF.

Enough to force the PLAAF to demand a two-engine plane?

The “prototypes” seem more like limited batch production to work out kinks. If you look at modern Chinese warship construction, it’s batches of two.

Still a lot. When you look at the number of prototypes in the JH-7 project (five and some of them after the initial deliveries) and the number of J-8 prototypes (five in the J-8I and three in the J-8II) the number in the J-10 program is huge, more than 16.

you even rely on the number of leaked photos spot by Chinese local fans to evaluate the case

But a valid indicator none the less. Mainlanders who get photos of new planes like to post them on the net. Many of the forums we fans go to are the same ones you speak of so we see much of the same information. This is how we found out about the JH-7As at Hangzhou.

Chinese government is funding CAC to make it produce 50 J-10 annually. The decision was made by former President Jiang

Exactly my point. President Jiang authorized 50 per year but Chengdu has not been deliverying them.

shouldnt there be an increase in the number of J10 pictures instead on having nothing at all show up for so long?

The lack of photos is puzzeling. With the J-10s in the Hebei I would expect to see photos even with the limited numbers of planes out there. I can’t buy into a censorship argument though. We have photos from the FTTC and even a photo of a J-10 at what I believe to the be the missile test base in Lanzhou. What catches my attention is there are no multi-ship formation photos. The other location in Yunan is likely not condusive to getting spotter photos. Its the lack of photos that adds to my speculation of a problem.

I don’t think the program is dead and I think the plane will end up in the significant numbers in the PLAAF. But the estimates of the number keep going down. I’ve seen 1200 on the high and 300 on the low. I take most of this as specualtion and don’t put much stock in them. I think the program is in limbo, just as the JH-7 would have been if the Navy didn’t buy it. Eventually the JH-7 was made acceptable to the PLAAF, just as the J-7 was long before it. The difference I see now is the PLAAF is not willing to help the factory fine tune the planes. They didn’t have much of an alternative in the 1970s but do now.

As long as the program is viable I don’t think there will be any relaxation. The PLAAF is a funny breed though. A USAF delegation visited Anshan in 2003, 10 years after the Su-27s showed up and five years after the J-11 went into production. The PLAAF would not even acknowledge the plane was there. They acted like it didn’t exist. Yet the J-11s were starting to show up on CCTV in the 7th Divisioin. There was no consistency in dealing with the secrecy of the J-11 and I see the same thing with the J-10. No acknowledgement in some circles and admission by the Deputy Chief of Staff (I mis-spoke earlier and called him the COS) that the plane exists.

In my opinion, the plane is behind schedule but I think whatever is holding the PLAAF back will probably be resolved in the future. The question is – how long in the future and will the PLAAF turn its attention to the FC-1 while waiting?