So Rick, would you like to enlighten us as to what these problems are? Seeing as you seem to know everything about one of the most secretive military projects in china if not the world.

I don’t pretend to know everything, that is others in this forum. I don’t talk about the radars, engines, or other aspects of the plane that others say like they just got off the phone with the Chengdu factory. Just like the production rate of 2 per month. That was speculation that makes its way into this forum like fact.

I don’t know what the problems are but I’m knowledgable enough about the PLAAF to recognize when something is out of the norm. I called problems with the J-10 a year and a half ago based on some simple analysis. There was talk about engine deliveries, engine development, production lines, etc etc to show why I was wrong. The bottom line is simple. The plane was sent to the worst unit in the PLAAF over a year ago and has not been seen since. Even those assigned to the Flight Test and Training Center aren’t based any longer at the Cangzhou but relegated to the backup airfield. You can play the secrecy card if you want, I choose to play the problem card. There are too many plane spotters in China for information about the J-10’s activities not to make the net. Chengdu had serious problems with the J-7 and the project was almost cancelled. Why do we not consider the same scenerio is a possibility with this project. Chengdu has not produced anything outside of the basic J-7 design to prove itself capable. Would you buy a new car made by Yugo now without thinking maybe it would be a lemon as well?

What makes you think its so secret, anyway? Because we don’t hear much about it. Maybe that’s because its not worth talking about. The Chief of Staff of the Beijing Military Region mentioned the J-10 by name, to includee where they are based, but not the Su-27s/Su-30s (he simply referred to them as “you know”). He also readily admits it is used for air defense. Not much secrecy there.

Flying with no number and anything??? A bit strange!

Maybe CAC keeps leaking photos in an attempt to mask the problems with the program. We have yet to see a plane with legit full serial number.

I doubt this place is the factory. It looks like the same place where we had that pic of the J-10 with oil pans underneath, or the pic where the engine nozzle is shot directly. There are painted and unpainted J-10s here, and J-10s under some brown tarp.

The shelter is pretty standard. The building in the background is more indicative of Chengdu city rather than the rural Gucheng. I mis-spoke before about the Flankers being at Gucheng, I was thinking J-10.

Wasn’t the two pics of the J-10s with PL-12s we have seen were from the regiment based with the FTTC? The camo pattern is the giveaway. I doubt that newer J-10s would have the same camo pattern as they had back in early 2003. Or perhaps, a few J-10 from the FTTC were transferred to Dingxin for such testing. Or the missile is already operational.

I don’t remember the photo but I think it would indicate one of two things: 1) the missile is operational or 2) they were training missiles.

It is not outside the realm of reason for FTTC J-10 pilots to participate in the missile testing since they likely are the best qualified non-test pilots. Hard to say which planes since it is likely for some J-10s to be at CFTE in Xian. Those planes could be the same generation as those at the FTTC and therefore have the same pattern. I think a number of scenarios work.

In the case of the Su-27s, many pilots went to Russia to learn to fly the plane. That would have had to happen with the Mig-31 as well. If the PLAAF pilots were in Russia, it probably would have come out.

81192 was not the plane Wang was flying the day of the colision. For what its worth.

Interesting that the “J-8IID” serial numbers call them “J8IIA”

My take on the Q-5.

There are currently three divisions, each probably flying three regiments of Q-5s. The 15th Division also has one regiment of Q-5s, as does the 5th Naval Division. The AF 15th Div and the NAF 5th Div are hybrid units that also fly other types of aircraft.

That makes a total of 11 regiments.

The full divisions, 5th, 11th and 28th each have one regiment of the green Q-5Ds. I’m not getting into the specifics of the models, check out Huitong’s site for that.

The other regiments in each of those divisions are most likely all Q-5Cs. There may be some earlier models around but, outside of the hybrid units, these numbers would be insignificant.

Regarding the newer models, I think they are all intended to be used as attackers. Contrary to popular belief, the JJ-6 was never an integfal part of Q-5 pilot training. Because of that fact, a trainer version of the Q-5 is not necessary. The initial cadre of Q-5 pilots were trained at the 2nd Air Academy, just like bomber pilots. After graduation they were sent to the training regiments of Q-5 divisions. These regiments flew J-5s. After a couple of years, the pilots were transferred to one of the Q-5 regiments for upgrade training. The Q-5 regiments likely had a few JJ-6s but not in the numbers that would have been needed for upgrade training. Keep in mind, even the J-8 units have four JJ-6s. Today training is different. After graduating from the air academies, pilots are transferred to a military region training base. The only training base I am aware of that has Q-5s is in Lanzhou. The pilots would go there for one or two years. I don’t know of any JJ-6s at Xining. It is still possible to go from the JJ-5 (or K-8) to the Q-5 without an intermediate trainer. If pilots are going from the K-8 to the J-7 there is no reason they couldn’t go from the K-8 to the Q-5.

If Hongdu sold the PLAAF on the two seat Q-5 they certainly could be used for training. I think Hongdu is trying to sell the AF a cheap two seat ground attack plane, certainly not competing with the Su-30 but the JH-7A. Whether or not they can succeed is another question.

The Q-5s have been brought along quite far. The later C models had GPS and other more modern electronics. The D models have that range-finder or whatever it is in that box under the nose. The E/F are likely to incorporate precision guided munitions and other advanced weapons. With the mission of the Q-5 likely to be one thing – Taiwan – it doesn’t have to have great range, only something to add on the battlefield.

The 5th Division training over the past few years leads me to believe their one mission in life is Taiwan. They work with vessles, the training against vessels as well as against normal Army ground tarkets. They have increased their training in EW environments and newer planes will only make them better at it.

Bottom line, I think the two-seater is intended for the battlefield, not the training base.

Brilliant!

PS: is some major thing going to happen on the 18th of june regarding the J-10???

Interesting question. I’m curious what info you have seen that prompted the question.

Intersting photo of the J-8A/E on the previous page posted by Showtime. That bird is 14th Div and is newly transferred. Likley came from the 24th Division. If the 24th Div gave up some early J-8s, what are they replacing them with? Could that be the J-10 happening on the 18th?

A squadron commander with only 650 flight hours? How many hours per year do PLAAF pilots get these days?

A squadron is the smallest unit in the PLAAF with only 4 to 8 pilots. This guy was probably out of flight training for about 2 years and is probably still at the transition training base.