The photo of J-11 #620 would discredit the information regarding the 12th Division getting the J-11.

You are correct. The photo was posted and a discussion of the aircraft type ensued. It was noted the Su-30s in the background (photo certainly taken at Wuhu) but some wanted to argue they were not Su-30s because of the number of hardpoints. This plane was one short for an Su-30. A photo of Su-30s with the same number of hardpoints as this one was posted. A photo taken at an Su-30 base that could be an SU-30, probably is an Su-30.

Huitong
OK, I take my word back, #42151 appears to be the correct number!!

This pattern was used by two airschools, presumably so new pilots wouldn’t get in the wrong plane. It was never used in a regular division. I think the number is PS’d.

It may be an old picture, but its a new photoshop job.

But there are those in the Chinese forums that believe this might be an exaggeration of a reported incident of a newly delivered plane where one engine flamed out and the plane was guided down to a safe landing.

The report of the MK2 going down was noted in the Chinese forums prior to the Kanwa article. For what its worth.

Huitong,
Any idea where the photo was taken? Was it in the area of Hangzhou?

So if you have 42 engines delivered per year, about 12 engines will be saved for spares.

You’re talking about engines from a contract reported on Dec 15th with respect to aircraft built over a year ago. That fine for future production but has no relevance in the context you used it.

How many engines were previously delivered? I know about the 54 but was that all?

Lets see then:

1001-1016 16
01-18 18
01-12 12
1021-1022 2 (J-10B)

Thats 48 engines. Doesn’t look like there are any left until the ones from the recent contract are delivered.

Logic says there are still engines available for production aircraft from the initial order of 54 in 2001. That means the numbers don’t add up in support of all the aircraft that are supposed to be flying. If so it would indicate that some of the new color aircraft may not be new but only modified and repainted aircraft. Or maybe the 1010-1016 were repainted and delivered to the FTTC.

You’re dead wrong again.

Are you paying attention to what you are saying?

First you say:

the two digit numbered J-10 could only have been produced starting in 2003.

and then you say:

I don’t believe that No. 18 in that picture was ever with the 44th. The embossed pictures I have, I believe are planes still with the FTTC.

So you are saying that in May 2003 when you have the photo of nr 18 you believe is with the FTTC; combined with your statement that the two digit numbered J-10 could only have been produced starting in 2003 that a total of 18 J-10s were built between Jan and May 2003. 18 aircraft in 5 months.

Why don’t you address only the two digit aircraft you say had to be built starting in 2003. You still have 18 of them by May. How do you justify that line of reasoning? How am I dead wrong again? You keep telling me I’m wrong. HOW? Explain to me how I’m wrong on the 18 two digit J-10s that went to the FTTC.

One last point. You said:

If you want to add it up, ASSUMING no plane is made after the number 1016, and no plane was made after the number 05 BEFORE the March of 2003, you have 11 planes made in 8 months, which is 1011 to 1016, plus 01 to 05.

Again you are not consistent from post to post. You said, as I quoted above, that 01-05 were not built until 2003. That means you had 1011 to 1016 from June to December (6 aircraft in 6 months) and 01-05 in Jan and Feb (5 aircraft in 2 months). By ASSUMING no plane was made after number 05 BEFORE March 2003 you now have numbers 06-18 being made in March – May 2003. Thats 13 planes in 3 months.

You have production going from
1 per month Jun-Dec 2002 to
2.5 per month Jan-Feb 2003 to
4+ per month Mar-May 2003

With production like that there should be 80 J-10s in operational units.