As to the number on the J-10, it is too far forward. If you look at the two J-10s at the Flight Test and Training Center (02 and 05) the number is not in the same location, further indicating the photo is a fraud.

The planes in the primer are JH-7As and the ones in gray are JH-7s. If you enlarge the planes with numbers you will see they belong to the 17th Regiment of the 6th Naval Division (82x6x). This regiment was forming sometime last year, indicating this picture could be several months old. The JH-7As could be part of the 17th Regiment, but if not, there is likely a new JH-7A regiment to be formed soon.

Anyone have any info on the structure of the Su-27 construction numbers? Here are few of the numbers on the PLAAF birds:
13 38814
(14) 38815
(15) 38×16
(16) 38×17
(17) 38×18
(18) 38×19
19 38920
38 39511
39 39512
41 39920
Any significance in the digits in the first three places?

We have new moderators.

You’re right, and I hope they exercise their new responsibilities and delete this less than worthwhile thread….

Blow up of the tail

The clear single canopy is not one that covers both pilots. Look at the ‘windshield’ forward the front pilot. Notice the difference in the two photos.

You can also see the wing fence in the JH-7 but not in the JH-7A.

Both version actually have a dual nose wheel.

So would the Flanker numbers in China top out at around 400 after the current contracts are done with (which seems to me at current rate should happen before 2010)?

If the MK3 order happens and the number is 40 that would put the Flanker inventory right at 400 when all is said and done. Depending on what SAC can ramp up J-11 production to the 200 from the 1996 license will be done (I suspect) in 2006 or 2007.

I guess it hinges somewhat on whether or not the Zhuk-MSE has finished testing and integration problems.

Good point. All in all, the J-11s and these Mk3s could all finsih up around the same time, 2006 or 2007. That would be a good time to start producing the version of the Su-30 the PLAAF likes. If this is to be the case, negotiations of that contract would need to start soon, if not underway already. ALthough it shouldn’t take 2 years for SAC to get the technology installed to produce the Su-30s.

Looks like Fisher’s quote from Sukhoi officials claiming 300 PLAAF Flankers is correct

Given the quote was from August 2003 and by the end of 2004 there will be 273 I would hardly call that correct. With no new import orders and given the J-11 production you will barely have 300 by the end of 2005. If you run the numbers posted by Google:

Sukhoi had by early this year delivered 154 aircraft to China

Add the 24 Su-30s for the Navy you get 178. Add the 95 that Janes is saying kits have been delivered you get the 273. I tend to believe Mr. Butowski and that Sukhoi has delivered 105 kits. That puts the total by the end of 2004 at 283. With a 2005 production of 30-35 J-11s that gets you to 313-318 by the end of 2005.