Why do I suspect jkw and CDF’s Mill are one in the same?

A couple of mistakes on my part. I have seen the photo you are talking about. It was my understanding that was the 7th Division. Those are the planes I was talking about from the 19th. Wrong numbers, wrong division. I have to re-think that. You may be right.

Aircraft 24 at the repair facility is numbered as a 19th division plane. Here is the photo:

I think you are right, the PLAAF does need more UBKs. Unless the idea is to break up the UBKs at the 33rd and divide them up to the J-11 units. That could only happen if/when you have enough pilots trained that the upgrade could then happen at the operational units. That might explain why an operational division has the task of pilot upgrade training. If it were only temporary and the UBKs are split up that would give us indications of two things to happen: 1) 9 Su-27/J-11 regiments (figured at 4 UBKs per division = 36). 200 J-11s plus the Su-27s gives you just about the correct UBK=SK ratio. I think the PLAAF likes the two seat Su-30s better anyway. 2) The 33rd will eventually get J-11s to replace the UBKs. That would give you 26 J-11/Su-27SKs + 4 UBKs per regiment for a nice round number of 30.

And what is these SU-27s? Can you tell if these are actually J-11s or Russian made SU-27s? As far as visual identification cues, there are none except closeups of the plane. Or are you trying to say they’re SU-30s.

but I’ve previously heard the second J-11 reg in the 2nd Div.

You were talking about 2 regiments in the 2nd Division: 1 Su-27 and 1 J-11. I’m saying there are not 2 regiments of flankers in the 2nd.

After my last post I was reading some articles in the PLA Daily and just so happened they had an article on the 2nd Division. The called the reequipping of the division in 1996 to a “new domestically produced fighter.” The article is certainly about the Su-27 regiment. Why call it, all of a sudden, new domestic fighters? Maybe that is indicative they now have J-11s. In the absence of supporting information of a second flanker regiment, more accurately, in the presence of information refuting a second flanker regiment it creates an interesting conundrum. I suspect at this point the 2nd Division may have received the J-11. It may be an improvement over the avionics in the Su-27s they received in 95-96. I also suspect the original Su-27s have been transferred to the 6th Division. One thing missing in the article about the 6th Division was a reference to “new domestic fighter.” The article simply stated new fighter. It is also possible the author of the article simply errored, but I don’t tend to believe that in these articles given the high amount of scrutiny of official press.

I have never found any of the UBKs numbered 5X-7X in any other formation. The UBKs with those numbers are the ones attached to the 33rd.

See the attached photo of UBK 53 of the 2nd Division. Notice the unit emblem.

Just remember, KnAAPO itself ramped up to 100 fighters a year in just a few years back in the eighties.

Mass production as you know, seems to be the forte of Chinese factories. Compared to KnAAPO back in the eighties, there are many things in favor of SAC such as availability of more modern machinery and tooling, large abundant labor forces and low wages.

SAC is not KnAAPO. I admit ingnorance of KnAAPO production in the 80s. Maybe someone can enlighten me. What were they producing before that? How many? If KnAAPO went from 50 a year to 100 year that would be much different than going from 15 to 100 year, or even 15 to 50 a year.

All the pieces of information we hear must somehow fit into the puzzle. If it doesn’t, it must be discounted, like the Sukhoi official saying that China has 300 Sukhoi aircraft. MAKS2003 was in August 2003. If his statement was valid, then China had 300 then, not now after 20 Su-30MK2s were delivered, and another regiment of J-11s was delivered.

Take the Technocomplex info. 100 kits delivered since 2001. Without more in-depth knowledge of what exactly were in the kits we can’t even determine for sure if they were for the J-11s or the Su-27SK/UBK that were imported. It still fits.

Piotr Butowski’s comments. 105 kits for J-11s supplied by KnAPPO as of December. In the absence of concrete evidence to refute this, it must be taken as credible.

I tend to look at what is, not what could be. But I recognize the what could be as well. What could be must stay within the confines of the evidence that exists. KnAPPO cannot have delivered only 105 kits for the J-11 and China have 300 Flankers at the same time unless there have been deliveries from Russia that have not been seen. When you line everything up, the piece of information that is least credible is the 300 Flankers in service as of Aug 2003.

First, I am not stuck on a fixed production rate. I just demand proof of a higher production rate. I now actually agree the production rate may have moved off of 15 per year depending on the actual number delivered thus far to the 6th Division.

I’m still not totally convinced the 6th Div has them as the article that convinced everyone merely said a new aircraft in Lanzhou. The photos were old 19th Div file photos so the aircraft may not be J-11s. I’m waiting for issue of Kong Jun Bao the suposedly has the initial article. I will agree with the majority for the time being.

I am not willing to jump on every speculation that comes along as to the number of aircraft produced. In this case especially as I think the contributor of the article at the strategy page is way off base. He takes a posting from Dingsheng that says there are 11 regiments and quickly transforms it into 13, aparently without foundation. You seem to jump right on that bandwagon.

The Sukhoi official that spoke to Dr. Richard Fisher last MAKS that China has about 300 SUs, .also told him that production rates have been ramped up to 40-48 a year.

Where did the 40-48 a year come from? What Dr. Fisher said was the Sukhoi official said that since 2002 “several dozen” more J-11s had been produced. This is the same offical that said it would take 10 years to indiginize the J-11. You probably don’t believe that part though. All you have with this guy is a car salesman. Can’t believe much about what he says. Especially when put with other information. Just because he is with sukhoi does not mean he has insider information about what is going on in China.

If you look at the Chinese media you clearly, without a doubt see there is no J-11 regiment in the 2nd Division. Recently on CCTV was an article about a young man of the 2nd Division who died in July 2003. In February, the Party Comittee of the PLAAF made this an issue. This resulted in broadcasts on both CCTV1 and CCTV7 this month at the unit that showed old J-7s in the 4th Regiment. The 5th Regiment has J-7Es, and the 6th Regiment has Su-27s. Do you really think the 2nd Division would get rid of the J-7Es and keep the J-7Bs? The logical conclusion is there are no J-11s there. If the 3rd Division was going to have both J-11/Su-27 why give up the Su-27s and then get J-11s 2 or 3 years later? That doesn’t make sense to me, but not impossible I suppose.

I suspect the 33rd Does have J-11s. I also suspect they don’t have 28 UBKs. I think some of them may have to go to other units, such as the 1st Division. A USAF delegation is in China right now. They will be visiting the 33rd Division (likely at Dazu and not Chongqing). If they get lucky, they might find out.

I agree about Dachang but don’t know about that 3rd Regiment of JH-7s. The photo that was going around a while back was a mockup used in training ground crews. I think the Navy is pretty much confined to two regiments per Division. This is just speculation on my part.

I agree that the future J-11s will be upgraded and that is what the Technocomplex issue is about. I tend to think the upgrade will be earlier than plane 100, mostly because I still don’t think they have built 100. Especially since the Technocomplex deliveries went back to 2001.

I put a lot of credence in the information Piotr Butowski posted last month. His personal knowledge of information from KnAAPO seems more credible than a Sukhoi official at an airshow, maybe because I want it to be.

Aircraft production will go up. It took 4 or 5 years for the F-22 production to get to full speed but Shenyang is not Boeing. To get to 125 from 2000 you would have to go produce:
15 in 2000
25 in 2001
35 in 2002
50 in 2003

I don’t think a factory that couldn’t assemble 2 aircraft correctly in 1998 has a chance in h-e-l-l of producing 50 per year within 5 years.

A couple of things.

I think his TO&E for the Su-30 regiments is too high. I believe there are only 20 Su-30s per regiment. Interesting thing here is they are equipped like a bomber regiment, not a fighter regiment. The same is true for the JH-7s.

This is the first time I have seen the regiment at Quzhou listed as an Su-27 regiment. I have always seen this as an Su-30 regiment. In fact, there are not enough Su-27 deliveries to support this. It may simply be typo.

The regiment number in the 2nd Division is the 6th, not fourth. I have seen the online info he used. Aircraft numbering leaves no doubt on this. Speaking of the 2nd, the indications of Su-30s he speaks of was an report in JDW, I think, when the final 18 Su-30s from the first order were being delivered. THe report had them going to Suixi but later JDW changed that to the Flight Test and Training Center. Aircraft from all three 2nd Division regiments have been noted in the media just recently. The 4th Regiment has the oldest J-7s and would be the ones replaced but there were at least two articles on CCTV in the past month or so about a young man in the 4th Regiment (not a pilot from what I can tell) who died trying to save someone who was drowning. Many fourth regiment aircraft were shown, leaving no doubt that regiment is still early J-7s. He may be right in what the PLAAF intends to eventually do but I don’t see that happening just yet.

The SU-30s for the Navy was based on a report the Su-30MK2s were supposed to be delivered begining in 2004. They may have been but I haven’t seen anything yet and don’t know how he made the unit identification, especially given that 16th and 17th regiments of the 6th Naval Division are both equipped with JH-7s. It seems unlikey they would move those aircraft. I have always speculated the Su-30s for the Navy would go to the 4th Naval Division. At this point, I just don’t know.

What was more interesting was the next page of that article that said 100 J-11s and 20 J-11A were already produced. I think it may have indicated additional Su-30MKKs on order as well.

I was talking to a retired USAF jet engine mechanic today. I asked him about storing engines, more specifically I referenced new engines. His reply was: “if the engines are in preservation, they will last almost forever.” He was telling me that the lubrication issue is not an issue. That would explain whey the Speys, while maybe very old, are still in a very usable condition.