Arthur,
I see you found the afterburner pic for your avitar.

by Huitong
it could be Su-27s transferred from 2nd division which itself is getting Su-30MKKs

Given the way the 3rd Div upgraded to the Su-30 it would be expected the 2nd Div would get the Su-30 before giving up the Su-27. Is there an Su-30 order out there beyond the Su-30MK2s for the Navy? Since the Navy order was first if the 2nd Div was giving up the Su-27s that would indicate that 2 Naval regiments of Su-30s and the one for the 2nd Div would have been delivered already. Doesn’t seem likely. Given the production rate at Shenyang the 3rd regiment was due to be delivered and this would seem to make the most sense. We will need some additional press realeases to help. I will acknowledge the limited press release info I have seen simply says new model fighter when I would have expected to see new domestic model does tend to support your theory.

Someone needs to take the China United Airline flight to Yinchuan. :p If you buy, I’ll fly……

The third regiment of J-11s is thought to be at Yinchuan. It now puts at least one Flanker regiment in each military region.

by Crobato
Many Chinese articles tend to have bad english or bad translation.

The article is from a Korean paper. If you check out the donga website’s English section you will see it is well written. There is no doubt he meant to say the J-10 was the Su-27. He likely just had his facts mixed up with the J-11. I do think he was in serious error in comparing a Chinese squadron (if the term used was really zhongdui) to the Korean elements. A Chinese squadron does not have 20 aircraft, it only has 3. That would put 4 squadrons at 12 aircraft, not 80. Without the actual Chinese text is nothing more than specualtion on my part. Having said that, there is no PLAAF unit that has only 20 aircraft except bomber/Su-30 regiments. It is unlikely the J-10 will be considered in that class and a regiment of 24-40 should be expected with 24 to start and likely to increase over time.

I should have gotten the exact quote. Here it is:

“THis Suhkhoi official was also willing to talk about the PLA’s desire to “indigenize” the J-11 with substantial new Chinese-made components, like radar, engines and avionics. he said that the PLA was capable of doing all these things but that it would take the PLA “ten years” to realize an indigenized J-11″

This was taken from Richard Fisher’s MAKS reports which can be found here:
http://www.uscc.gov/mair1.htm

By saying it would take 10 years to realize an indigenized J-11 indicates to me the Sukhoi official was saying it would take 10 years to develop all the components and has nothing to do with the contract. My point in posting this was to put the Sukhoi offical’s comments into perspective.

The actual statement concerning the XXJ was that “China could master all the advanced technologies required for this new fighter, but that it would take 10 years for the PLA to complete the program. This would only put the XXJ about 6 yeasr behind the expected 2006 IOC for the F/A-22A”

Was the offical saying it would take 10 years to master the technology? If so, that would put the XXJ ready for prototype in 10 years putting its IOC more than 6 years behind.

Again, this is the same official that thinks there will be 1200-1500 J-10s. He just seems all over the map. He also said China has about 300 Sukhoi fighters.

I think China can indeginize the J-11 in less than 10 years. I don’t think China will make 1200 J-10s and I see no reason to think China is ready to complete the XXJ in 10 years.