well, Belgium is looking to retire the F-16AM/BM fleet in the 2020/2025 timeframe and a replacement might be required in that timeframe.
last year it was noted the our MoD was looking into the F-35A as a prefered replacement, but the aircraft has become so expensive to aquire and maintain that this now seems very unlikely to happen.
to reduce costs, we are now looking at Joint puchases and opreations with the Netherlands, so it is likely that if NL selects the F-35, so will Belgium, but the word “Gripen-NG” has also been mentioned in whispers, witch seems like a more realistic option concidering Belgiums shoestring budget (about $3.4 Billion annually, most of it going to personel costs/wages)
the Alpha Jet will most likely not be replaced, with the recet upgrade they can stay in service until 2025, what happens after that is a mistery, most likely they will be retired without replacement ans training will continue either in the USA, Canada or remain in France on a yet to be known future french training platform.
for a large part, modernisation is already underway, the 3 Alouette III’s and 4 Sea King Mk.48 helicopters will be replaced by 4 NH90-NFH with delivery of the first machines expected by the end of this year.
Belgiums Agusta A-109 fleet is still relatively new, concidering the aircraft are about 20 years old now and an MLU might be concidered in a few years time.
the fleet however will be reduced from the current 27 (out of 45 delivered in 1992) to about 20 aircraft, these will be suplemented by 4 NH90-TTH with a further 2 in option, delivery is expected early 2013.
the C-130H fleet of 11 aircraft, witch has been serving the BAF for 40 years now, are expected to stay in service until 2022, by then they will be replaced by 7 Airbus A400M’s in the 2019/2020 timeframe + 1 additinal A400M operated on behalf of Luxemburg.
although the SF260D/M fleet is over 43 years old (entered service in 1969) they are still going strong, although the fleet has been reduced in numbers (about 32, but i dont know the exact number). there has been no mention of a potential replacement and i dont think it is on the BAF’s priority list.
all together, we still operate a worthy and highly modern Air Force, but the problem is that most of our fixed wing combat and training assets will be obsolete by 2025 and with the limited budget we have available, it will be a huge challenge to replace them all in that timeframe, some responcibilities might be transfered to partner NATO countries in order to reduce costs, but we still need some kind of indipendant air arm, as for now, the future of Belgium as a believable NATO partner is uncertain.
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