as i said before, the Aplha Jets will be retired in 2018 with NO replacement, as pilot training will then be conducted in the US.
as for the F-16 replacement, its to early to tell and a choice is to be made by end 2018, although i can see this getting delayed.
that the F-35 is a favorite is a bit obvious, especially as Lockmart is doing some heavy lobbying for the F-35 in Belgium for the past years.
as for the Rafale, i say the chances are slim, the aircraft isnt exactly NATO compatibel in terms of inter-operability and weaponry, witch kinda limits cooperation to France only.
a better choice would be the Typhoon, as 4 other NATO members (+Austria) are already operating the type, and as Belgium is a Pro-European nation, and prefers European equipment, i take the chances of the Typhoon are high, although the high price tag and maintainance costs could make it difficult.
the Gripen could be a good selection, in terms of operating and acuasition costs, they could work together with current (and possible future) European Gripen operators, but the Nuke option could kill its chances. the F/A-18E/F is one of my favorites, its affordable, low maintainance costs, growth potential and its proven in combat, and its capable of carrying nukes (B61) so that makes it the best alternative to the F-35, the only downside is that we would be the only operator of the type in Europe.
what i could recommend is a possible lease of new aircraft, and join Germany in the developent of a new strike aircraft, but that could turn out to be more expensive then buying off the shelf.
as for a mixed fleet idea (F-35 + FA50), forget it, its not going to happen, as its cheaper to operate a single type then 2 types, thats the reason the F-16 also replaced the Mirage 5 in the mid-1990’s.
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