RSM55But can someone explain me, why Georgia is so obsessed with SO (and Abkhazia)? [/SIZE]
Ossetians are ethnically, culturaly and linguisticaly distinct from Georgia. Abkhazians also. Worse, the latter are Muslims (courtesy of several Persian and Turkish invasions).
In fact, some in Georgia see their state as a kind of historical and cultural hegemon in the region, justifying it with an extremely old and continuous cultural tradition, one of the earliest christianisations (4th century AD – true), an ancient chronical tradition (literature and written chronicles since the 5th century AD – true) and a multiethnic monarchic state system ranging from the 6th century AD (false).
Following a string of homeric deeds (e.g. participation in the capture, looting and incineration of the Abassid capital Baghdad as regular army units of the great Mongol warlord Hagu Khan in 1258 AD), Georgians suffered an invasion by Persian forces (who burned Tbilisi almost to the ground) that went unanswered by the Russian Empire (that signed a “mutual assistance” treaty 10 years earlier. That was in the late 18th century. At the beginning of the 19th century, Georgia was more or less peacefully integrated into the Russian Empire (well, they did not have a choice, didn’t they), which illustrates quite well the Russian strategy of “let them burn, they’ll come begging later”.
In the following 200 years, Georgia gave Russia some of its finest literary settings (read Pushkin, Lermontov, Tolstoy), cheapest and fruitiest wines, famous generals (Bagration, who heroically fell defending the Motherland from Napoleon), famous Perestroikists (Shevernadze, the last Soviet Foreign Affairs minister and later president of Georgia) and some other interesting figures (Stalin).
The latter (with his good old chap Lenin) is ultimately responsible for us discussing this topic.
Stalin did not want fellow Georgians feel too nimble once they were re-incorporated into the Soviet Empire (after a brief 3 years long independence under a nationalistic menshevik government), so he cut the Ossetians in two and integrated a part (South Ossetia) into the Georgian SSR. Same thing happened to Abkhazia, this time to prevent the Georgians of being too enthusiastic and dilute them with some foreign, Muslim, moutaineer-minded ingredient. For good measure, and in order to respect South Ossetian and Abkhazian sacred basket-weaving techniques or whatever, the two were granted autonomous status within the Socialist Republic of Georgia (still with me?).
This quite common soviet situation lasted till it lasted, i.e. more or less since 1991 when cute little Georgia went AWOL and declared its independence. The problem with that was the fact that Georgia got not only independence but also a crazy, idiotic and corrupt ex-soviet dissident named Gamsakhurdia as President. What is worse than a crazy, idiotic and corrupt ex-soviet dissident? You’re right, a crazy, idiotic and corrupt ex-soviet dissident who’s a nationalist big time. Gamsakhurdia was all that and logically did all the crazy and stupid things one could expect of him: revoked unilaterally Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s autonomy status, sending his troops to enforce his enlightened decision, thus sparkling a war that caused hundreds of deaths, the majority of ethnic Georgians leaving in the said regions becoming refugees in their own land, Russians reminding the Georgians that you don’t mess with them and Georgia utterly defeated. Luckily, for once God has lost his/her sence of what is funny and what is not and Gamsakhurdia (driven by an epiphany or, as some say, forced by a Chechen professional) decided to splatter his brain with an AK bullet. The irony of this story is that one of the most prominent fighters who fought against the Georgians and side by side with his Abkhazian and Russian brother-in-arms was a guy named Shamil Basaev, later known as the nice kids-hostage-taker-of-Beslan etc, you name it.
Georgia, defeated and humiliated, had to find a new president. And who is better as new president than an old, experienced, gray-haired guy with lot of credentials for having “stood for what he believed in”? McCain? No, Shevernadze. Shevernadze did quite a good job managing to manoeuvre around Russian interests and US love of everything democratic, but he was so busy doing so that he left a state that was utterly corrupt and ineffectual. The humiliation and nationalistic sentiment was left intact, though. Therefore, when the Western-educated, polyglot, young, dashing Saakashvili peacefully came to power through a coup codenamed “Rose revolution”, no one balked. The Russians decisively helped Saakashvili by persuading Shevernadze to go (and take refuge in a Russian plane bound for Moscow, then France), as they did some years later when evacuating the separatist government of Adjaria. But Saakashvili, for some reason known only for himself, kept his electoral promise of “taking back the lost territories at all costs.”
You see, there is no definite answer to your question. Why do the Palestinians want to return? Why do Israelis claim Israel as the holy land? Why do the Greeks and the Turks argue about a small piece of rock in the Med? It’s all the same.
EDIT AND PS: For some reason, I’ve wrote “apparatchik” instead of “dissident” when writing about Gamsakhurdia. Slip of the fingers is slip of the mind. They’re all but the same sometimes (apparatchiks and dissidents, I mean).
RSM55The US is building a missile shield to be ready. Why do they want to be ready? Iran and the PRK are indeed making an atomic bomb.
I’m still waiting for Condi Rice to shake an Iranian enriched uranium rod in the face at the UN Security Council 😀 That would at least enhance her radiation since Powell’s gizmo performance.
BTW and order to return to topical matters, the Poles just agreed to station US interceptors on their soil. Poor old Poles, always ready to be the “first and last thin red line”…
RSM55The humanitarian relief mission is the most “robust” non-violent response imaginable.
Sorry, your bet was not on a non-violent response.
Basically, the US is seeking to secure the ports and airports to distribute aid.
They can’t do that without Russian cooperation, and Gates just said that.
Without distribution, the airlifted supplies from the C-17s will not reach the victims of the current crisis.
Having seen with my own eyes the way distribution works in Georgia generally, I’m sure all these nice drugs and tents will be sold on Tbilisi’s black market at very good prices in the course of the weeks ahead.
How can they block humanitarian aid, after all? This is why the strategy is brilliant.
Why sould they block it??? And I don’t see any strategy here.
If Russia wants to trump America’s humanitarian commitment, Russia should make its own humanitarian commitment to the Georgian people.
Russia gives a s**t about Georgian people at the moment, and why should they, with all the love and care Georgia has shown to its “citizens” in South Ossetia? Russia has provided 50 Mio USD in aid to S.Ossetian refugees till now. Russian EMERCOM has opened 25 centers in Northern Ossetia. Two Il-76 Scalpel have been dispatched. 31 mobile hospitals have been put in place. Russian Gov has pledged 500 mio USD to rebuild Tsinkhvali. Moscow city has pledged 100 mio.
Meanwhile, US State Dep has pledged 250’000 USD in aid.
Maybe the US should trump something? Because as of now, most of the Caucasians hate the Georgians for what they did.
RSM55Is there an objective source out there? Seems like everything I’ve read has their own angle on what happend.
Every single news agency around the world reported increasing shelling of South Ossetian villages by Georgian arty and MLRSs just hours after Saakashvili announced a ceasefire. Medvedev was on holiday. Putin was in China. Northern Caucasus MD forces were not on a state of alert. The only Russian forces in South Ossetia at that time were the 500 peacekeepers, that Russia has not even bothered to bolster to the upper limit of 3000 allowed by the previous peace treaty. Think by yourself.
I also would like to humbly ask everyone: Let’s stop speculating about darker motives of the peacekeepers there, be it Russian or Georgian peacekeepers. They were normal young guys like many who participate in this forum, they risked and lost their lives because of politicians on both sides who did not care for a better settlement. They’ve fulfiled their soldier’s duty in one of the most volatile region of the earth for more than 16 years, and did a pretty good job (compared to their counterparts in Srebrenica, Lebanon, Sudan, Somalia, Sierra Leone…) till someone decided that weapons have a mightier voice than diplomacy. So let us stop puttin these nice and practical little ” “ around their designation. IMHO both Russians and Georgians who were standing there, sometimes side by side, lately rather facing each other, truly deserve their name of peacekeepers. They gave their life in the name of it.
Let’s stop trolling around their graves.
As for the Russian 58th Army being ready, please read my post on the previous page.
RSM55Or the complete failure of Russian ‘peacekeepers’ to stop the South-Osetians from firing into Georgia, which they knew would eventually lead to Georgia responding?
Ok. What were the Georgian peecekeepers doing in order to prevent this, except firing at their Russian “comrades in arms”, of course?
RSM55Did they lose any helos in ground attacks?
As I’ve written in one of my previous posts, at least two helos (Hip and Hind) were reported destroyed on the ground at Senaki.
RSM55No, the issue is the lack of objective proof.
Independent journalists like the late Anna Politskaya were not on the scene to report the unfolding events.
“De mortuis aut bene aut nihil”, as they say, but A. Politkovskaya was everything save “independent”, I’m sorry to say.
The loss of a free press has hurt the interests of all Russian – including the Russian military. Without a free, non-state press, there is nobody to report the news, regardless of viewpoint.
Having watched/read US, British, French, German, Swiss, Italian and Spanish news reports and analysis in the past 10 days, I totally agree with you 😀
Besides, you’ve missed the tech revolution: everyone has blog / website now. There are plenty of info and images available. If you take the time to filter them out and get a vaccine against propaganda and information warfare/discourse doctoring techniques, you still can get quite a good picture of what’s happening.
Now, it will be hard to reconstruct the immediate sequence of events leading to the conflict. What came first, the first Russian sortie or the first Georgian troop movement? Will we ever know the truth?
Oh God, I’m so glad that you said that. Proves my point that the main aim of any propaganda is to take control over the narrative structure underlying every human opionion and, perforce, action.
Please, do look at the newsreels. Internet is also a good archive sometimes. Look at who invaded whom first. Maybe then you’ll notice that poor little tiny Georgia began MLRSsing poorer smaller tinier Ossetia before the terrible murderous and rampaging Russian bear pushed them out.
RSM55The lone Tu-22 Backfire lost (allegedly to a SA-11 BUK) is the puzzle. Was it poor planning or execution by the Russians? Was it due to clever use of the SAM by the Georgians? Did they just get lucky?
Israeli battle management systems / radar combined with pop-up tactics by BUK crews. And a bit of luck (as always).
Surprisingly the Russians did not loose a single Mi-24. Is it due to new tactics and/or better ways of using them? Did they just get lucky?
It’s due to the fact that they could not deploy a single attack or support helo in South Ossetia on a permanent basis till the day before yesterday. Look at the range from the nearest airfield in North Ossetia: you wouldn’t have much time/fuel left for crossing the natural mountain border and conduct combat ops. You need a forward base, with fuel, technicians and all the stuff usually required. Once S.Ossetia has been secured, this was partly done. Helo ops are also gaining pace in Abkhazia right now, but were in fact non-existent almost till now. Wonder if they will get the lesson and implement some helicopter aerial refueling capability.
RSM55Does anyone have any idea on relative tank numbers etc? As such how can we know if Russian skill was decisive in pushing back the Georgians or was it simple numbers? I ask this because it looks like Russia was not expecting this conflict given the old model tanks in use.
Too early to say in a definite manner but I surmise it was skills, not numbers. Relative numbers on the theatre are given in my post above (12:1 at day 1 and nominally 3:1 now in Georgia’s favour). The Russians have sent 2 motorized rifle batallions at day 2, not more. Now they seem to have around 80 MBTs in South Ossetia and probably 30% less on the western theatre (Abkhazia and around). As for skills: pictures are around featuring a rolling Russian BMP with “Chechnya Chechnya Chechnya” and “Vostok” tagged on it. Kind of corroborates the participation of quite experienced troops there.
Re. old tank models: the T-64 and 55 that have been seen till now most probably belong to S.Ossetian paramilitaries. At least one I’ve spotted could belong to the Russian marine infantry, though I doubt it since they’ve retired their older stuff. Could indicate, however, that they really were engaged in some sea-shore landing operations (T-72 and 80 are not easily landing ship-transportable).
Obviously, the featured stuff is not the most modern one, sorry for the geeks who hoped to see the T-90 in action 🙂 It proves, if anything, that the units involved are regulars from the Northern Caucasus Military District. That implies as well that Russia has not prepared this operation well in advance (or didn’t want to/appear to be to). This is corroborated by the info I get (and this info is good, western, unbaised, and sees sat imagery every day).
RSM55Now you have this: One side needs to give in, or we might face US vs. Russia direct (hopefully non nuclear) engagement.
Now that US troops are on the Ground, Russia is either going to submit and not do whatever it wants as far as military objectives in their own back yard.
just my thoughts tonight..
we’ll see soon.
(sorry for having “disappeared” guys, have been quite busy during these “hot” days).
As for the opinion above: now that we’ve got (hard) facts on the ground we can judge about US “involvement”:
– Secy. Gates rebuffs Georgian announcements that US is planning to secure Georgian airfields and seaports. Gates also announced that the Russians were informed well in advance of the Globemaster(s) flight(s), that the 30 or so US military personnel on the ground reside in a compound whose coords have been passed to the Russians beforehand in order to avoid incidental firings, and that the humanitarian aid will be mostly delivered by air. No military ships are bound to Georgia or planned to sail there, USN announced. A US hospital ship may be dispatched to Georgia in a week or so. So much for the current “robust” response. For now, of course.
So for the moment, it is hardly possible to talk about “US troops on the ground”.
– Meanwhile, the “pressured” Russians (i.e. the Dept. Chief of Staff) has said that they were unsure whether the US is effectively sending humanitarian aid and not something else. Strange announcement if anything from someone who is supposed to “submit”.
– Russian troops have been positioning outside Gori. Russian airborne units have been going in and out of Senaki (and even slept there) as if it is one of their own bases. The Russians have also been in and out of the military base in Poti as early as today. Seems they don’t care pretty much about what the US has said till now.
– The Russians (quite cynically) refer to the ongoing operations as part of the ceasefire plan (that allows Russia to “take additional security measures“.
– The Russians have seized more than 1700 firearms in the Senaki base near Abkhazia alone. Seized weaponry and ammo in S.Ossetia is not yet detailed. But there already are some images available of S.Ossetian irregulars / Russian troops driving T-72Sim tanks. Seems that the Russian tanks will finally get modern IR imagery 😀
– The vessels in Poti have not been bombed but most certainly blown up by Russian airborne units.
– Human Rights Watch, this great objective and absolutely non-governmental organization, has accused Russia of having dropped RBK-250 cluster ammo on innocent civilians (incl. a journalist) in Gori. Russia denied this. Previously, Georgian sources accused Russians to have used an Iskander missile to kill the said civilians. Georgia now claims it has proof that Russia used cluster bombs and will provide the said evidence to NATO.
My comment: First of all, it would be evidently very ironic if Russia gets blame for using cluster ammo from the US. I personally loathe this kind of weapon (because of its secundary effects) but perfectly understand the military logic behind it. It would be a surprise to me if Russia effectively did not use cluster weapons during this conflict that involved large masses of armoured units and mobile soft targets. But judging from the images picturing the aforementioned “crime scene” in Gori, I’m very doubtful about the claim that the killing was caused by cluster munition. Weapon damage expertise is not my main specialty, but there are obvious signs that neither a SRBM nor a RBK did that. I’d rather suspect a single/couple of Grad-type missile(s), or a mortar round (small one, definitely not above the 84mm line). Might even have been a RPG/ATGM.
As for the “(dis)proportionality” debate and all the BS about the “1 million man Russian army” invading poor tiny Georgia, let me remind everyone that Georgian forces entering S.Ossetia outnumbered Russian troops there 12 to 1 and still nominally outnumber the Russian troops present in Georgia/S.Ossetia/Abkhazia by 3 to 1 (without taking Georgian reservists and “volunteers” into account). So what would look proportional?? Two full Russian divisions?
For those who still doubt the real scale of destruction in Tsinkhvali (like the guys and girls from Human Rights Watch for example, and even myself at some times), have a look at these images (it’s obviously not Grosny, of course, but please remember it’s a town of 30’000 at most):
http://osinform.ru/foto/7766-foto-razrushennogo-goroda-geroja.html
(comments are of course biaised, but that’s not surprising)
RSM55oh god no not powerpoint! they’d end up ‘power point warriors’ like so many in the US forces 😀
At least they’ll train their hand-head coordination this way 😉 I mean, this time they even could have used Lock On 3D animes instead of Google Earth, imagine! 😀
Edit: If confirmed, I suppose the Russians keep shooting down the last remaining Hermes drones. Wonder why the Georgians still send them in the air.
RSM55Agreed but i think it didnt help that all morning Russia defence ministers were absolutly deniying there were any forces at all in and around Gori while the world knew there where, when Russian Gov. Spokesman Dmitri Peskov spoke to CNN and actually explained it the other news agnecies don’t seem to have picked up on it, or thought it wasn’t exciting enough to tell the viewers.
Totally agree. The best new defense spending Russia could order after this war is a couple of professional PR and InfoWarfare heads. Military guys from the MoD and the vast majority of the MFA/Presidential administration polyglots have been revealed to be absolutely ineffectual, inconclusive and incompentent (with the exception of Churkin, the UN Ambo, who at least can logically connect more than 2 sentences). I’m sure the Russian Chief of Staff has never heard of the existence of something called Powerpoint, for example, and considers “beamers” to be part of the SDI programme.
RSM5574 soldiers killed for Russia is quite a number. Let s say that 20 have died in the first day when the georgians attacked their basis. But the rest have been killed in combat.
Russian sources tell that at least 25 soldiers died on day 1 in Tsinkhvali as a result of arty and MLR attacks on their barracks. The overall figure of killed peacekeepers in Tsinkhvali on day 1/day 2 allegedly is around 45. Such figures are corroborated by the extremely untypical ratio between the killed and the wounded (74/171 wounded). Rumours about Georgian troops “finishing off” the wounded and denying med help could be corroborated by that.
On the other hand, it is unclear whether these numbers include S.Ossetian paramilitary units and Chechen interior ministry troops integrated within the local Russian regional command.
SITREP: The Russian Navy or Air force really did attack the Georgian ships based in Poti. Here is the “Tbilisi” pr. 206 missile corvette shown burning at her pier:
http://regionalreporters.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/113.jpg
RSM55yes your clearly not understanding this, it would seem as if no iskander did hit a hospital but gori hospital by all accounts was hit by some kind of munition, dosn’t make to much differance to the average joe what type of ordinance hit its the fact that a hospital was hit thats bad, unless you think thats something to be applauded (unsure)
That’s right – it’s quite useless to discuss the “collaterals” here – useless suffering is not something to be cynical about.
I’ve heard conflicting reports about the Gori attack – Georgian claim that it was hit by a SRBM (Saakashvili saying it was an Iskander) – probably in order to explain why there was no plane flying over Gori at the time of the bombardment (another unconfirmed report). While it is clear that Russian forces fired at least 1 Tochka SRBM at Poti, it is unclear to me why they would target Gori with a SRBM. Looks like an overkill to me.
Russians have alleged that the hospital was hit by exploding ammo following the bombing of an ammo and arty depot situated nearby. If true, it could explain why the damage is confined to the upper parts of the buildings actually hit and shown on TV. Aerial bombs usually inflict more extensive damage.
BTW, the reason of the push-through by the russian armoured column south of Gori has not dawned yet on BBC and consorts. Only CNN seems to have got the point. It’s kind of funny also to watch one of the classic features of any wars, i.e. reporters on the ground knowing less about the situation than people in the studios. And even more funny to watch all these international broadcasting cracks asking the poor guy in Tbilisi “what do you see from there?” when talking about Gori. 😀
RSM55http://news.sky.com/skynews/ has a video of the moving armour. AFP,AP, SKY that i know of have journalists there in and around Gori, i cannot imagine all these differing independant news sources are spinning yarns somehow and using ‘fake’ video.
So why don’t we have graphic footage of “Cossacks and Chechens looting and burning the homes of innocent civilans” there, as Tbilisi claims? I also have a slight impression that the aforementioned quote shows yesterday’s footage.
OK, LAST DEV.:
Russian Gov. Spokesman Dmitri Peskov told CNN minutes ago that the Russian forces are conducting a “demilitarization operation in the area south of Gori”. The aim was to “evacuate” a ammo dump of the Georgian army and seize/render unusable Georgian tanks and arty abandoned by the Georgian military. Minutes later reports came in that the armoured column has split in two near Gori and is taking arty positions, i.e. stopped. A part of the column has left the area heading north.
Peskov also said that the terms of the ceasefire included the demilitarization of the area (that’s the Russian interpretation), which means that they have to be sure that no piece of Georgian equipment liable to be used against S. Ossetia remains in the “buffer zone”.
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