Mainland Europe rejoices.

Large defense budget cuts. Big increases in social spending. Nationalized health care. Tax increase providing short term revenue increase, but longer term economic turmoil and increasing unemployment.

International agenda foresaken in favor of a domestic agenda. Allies confused and aggressors emboldened. Israel?

Strategic withdrawal from the Middle East.

I don’t see any way for the F-22, JSF, C-17, C-5 RERP, KC-45, and new UAV’s to all survive.

All just MHO.

Wrong.

Aggressors embolded? Obama is the one who has wanted to find and kill al-Qaeda in Pakistan, whereas Bush has tried to outsource the job to Pakistanis. And McCain has criticized Obama on this point also.

As for the ME, we need to leave Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and keep forces in the countries where it doesn’t cause political problems, like Qatar.

As for the new hardware, it will survive and thrive under an Obama Administration. We need significant government spending to lessen the effects of the current recession – spending on infrastructure and on other things, like weapons. Don’t be surprised if the F-22 order is increased. Perhaps a navalized F-22 is possible? A new tanker and new UAVs are certainties. Politicians love UAVs: they’re cheap and there’s no loss of (American) life.

Aviation Week says the F-22 might fare better under Obama than McCain…
probably because of union influence.

Someone understands the political-economy at play here.

According to this document from the European Parliament:
http://www.bicc.de/publications/other/study_for_ep/bicc_study_for_ep.pdf
(PDF p. 30)

Research costs for the Eurofighter, Gripen, Rafale, and JSF were: 19.48, 1.84, 8.61, and 19.34 billion euro, respectively.

Two Tu-160’s are currently in Venezuela to participate in some sort of exercise. The interesting part of this is that there was apparently no mention of a BLACKJACK flight by the US DoD, who usually releases a statement when Russian strategic bombers are intercepted and/or shadowed. Does this mean that they didn’t want to bring attention to the fact that they’re down exercising with the dummy in Caracas, or that the DoD didn’t know that BLACKJACKs were flying down the Atlantic?

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080910172648.o0xedzl3&show_article=1

The dummy in Washington doesn’t know what a Blackjack is.

The DoD did mention the ships, however.

NYT:

August 18, 2008
U.S. Sees New Missile Move From Russia in Georgian Fight
By MICHAEL R. GORDON

WASHINGTON — Even as Russia pledged to begin withdrawing its forces from neighboring Georgia on Monday, American officials said the Russian military had been moving launchers for short-range ballistic missiles into South Ossetia, a step that appeared intended to tighten its hold on the breakaway territory.

The Russian military deployed several SS-21 missile launchers and supply vehicles to South Ossetia on Friday, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports. From the new launching positions north of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, the missiles can reach much of Georgia, including Tbilisi, the capital.

The Kremlin announced Sunday that Russia’s president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, had promised to begin the troop withdrawal in a conversation with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, who negotiated a six-point cease-fire agreement. Mr. Medvedev did not specify the pace or scope of the withdrawal, saying only that troops would withdraw to South Ossetia and a so-called security zone on its periphery.

The United States and European leaders reacted with wariness, and Russia’s recent military moves appeared to add an element of frustration.

“Well, I just know that the Russian president said several days ago Russian military operations would stop. They didn’t,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “This time I hope he means it. You know the word of the Russian president needs to be upheld by his forces.”

Russia’s efforts to strengthen its military position in the region have important political and military implications. American officials have demanded that Russian troops pull back from their positions inside Georgia and that the Russian military presence in the enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia be limited to the Russian peacekeeping force that was there before the conflict erupted earlier this month. Ultimately, American officials say, the Russian peacekeepers themselves should be replaced by a neutral, international peacekeeping force.

But instead of thinning out their forces in South Ossetia, the Russians appear to have been consolidating their presence there by deploying SS-21 missile launchers and, American officials say, by installing surface-to-air missiles near their military headquarters in Tskhinvali. Such moves appear to buttress assertions last week by Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are to be separated from Georgia.

Western officials have also been monitoring Russian troop movements, which may be intended to strengthen Russian forces in and around Georgia. A battalion from Russia’s 76th Guards Airborne Division has been deployed from Pskov to Beslan, a city in North Ossetia. Several additional battalions from the 98th Guards Airborne Division at Kostroma also appeared to be preparing over the weekend for possible deployment to the Caucasus region.

Beyond South Ossetia, the Russian military has taken other steps to raise its profile. In recent days, several Bear-H bombers have carried out training missions over the Black Sea, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports. The training flights are the first flights that a Bear bomber has flown over the Black Sea in at least two years, according to American military experts. The Russian bombers are capable of carrying non-nuclear cruise missiles, and government intelligence analysts have told the Pentagon that a recent Bear training flight appeared to simulate a cruise-missile attack against Georgia.

The Russian moves are seen at the Pentagon as a way for Russia to show that it considers its sphere of influence to include Georgia and other parts of the so-called near abroad zones — Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus and the Caspian — near Russian territory. In general, the actions are seen as a matter of muscle flexing, or “force projection,” in Pentagon parlance, and are not viewed as signs that Russia intends to make a major military push to take Tbilisi.

Russian officials may also be calculating that their nation’s military presence in the area may make some NATO members more skeptical toward accepting Georgia into the alliance. While the United States has strongly supported Georgia’s membership, some allied officials fear they may be dragged into a war in the Caucasus if Georgia is admitted.

Concerns over the military tensions in the region may already have influenced some neighbors. American officials said Turkish officials had denied the United States’ request that an American Navy hospital ship, the Comfort, be allowed to travel through the Turkish straits en route to Georgia. A Bush administration official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the diplomatic discussions, expressed hope that American officials would eventually persuade the Turkish government to let the ship pass.

The conflict began Aug. 7 when Georgian troops entered the breakaway region of South Ossetia, which has strong ties to Russia, and Russia responded by sending its own troops deep into Georgian territory. The Kremlin has said Georgia provoked the conflict in South Ossetia, whose populace is hostile to Georgia, and Russian officials have referred to Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, as a war criminal. Mr. Saakashvili has contended that Russia is determined to turn Georgia into the kind of vassal state that existed during Soviet times.

Though Mr. Medvedev announced the end of hostilities last Wednesday, Russian troops have remained in the central city of Gori, which is 40 miles from Tbilisi, and they continue to occupy wide swaths of territory. On Sunday, Western leaders pressed, with increasing unanimity, for Russia to withdraw. Mr. Sarkozy said there would be “serious consequences” for relations between Russia and the European Union if Russian compliance was not “rapid and complete.”

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Tbilisi to meet with Mr. Saakashvili, warned that “this process should not drag out for weeks.” Ms. Merkel also reiterated her previous support for Georgia’s eventual membership in NATO, a step Russia has fiercely opposed.

The deployment of SS-21 missile launchers to South Ossetia has added to the United States’ concerns. The SS-21 is a short-range ballistic missile carried on a mobile launcher. It can be used to attack enemy command posts and airfield and troop concentrations. Russian forces used the missile in the Chechnya conflict, where it was believed to have caused significant civilian casualties.

James F. Jeffrey, the American deputy national security adviser, told reporters earlier this month that President Bush was informed on Aug. 8 that two SS-21s had been fired into Georgia. He said Mr. Bush “immediately” met with Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir V. Putin, who was also attending the Olympics in Beijing, to express concern over the Russian military actions. Fragments of an SS-21 missile have been found near a police station in the port city of Poti. The rocket struck a police vehicle in front of the station.

But those missiles were fired from Russian territory, an American official said Sunday. In recent days, the official said, SS-21 missile launchers, as well as supply vehicles, have driven south through the Roki Tunnel into South Ossetia and been deployed on an elevated area about 10 miles north of Tskhinvali. That would put them within range of much of Georgia, including Kutaisi, Georgia’s second-largest city, and Tbilisi itself, adding to Russia’s ability to intimidate its neighbor.

continues at source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/18/world/europe/18georgia.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin

Listen, let’s not ruin this thread again. No one doubts that the Czech Republic, Poland and the Baltic states are sovereign and free nations that can choose all the mistaken/absolutely-right paths they want if they will. And of course, Russia can do nothing in order to hinder them. But the message to the world since Aug. 7 is: if you mess up with Russia, and if Russia messes up with you, the West will support you. In the media. But otherwise not. Maybe. Or not. Well, hope dies last, right?

Another victim of the 4-times-a-day Saakashvili’s press conferences. In order not to kill this thread again, could you please detail where was the “backing down” and where was the “pressure”? Remember we’re in a military forum.

While this is a military forum we must acknowledge that most of the pressure from the US and the rest of the West was social/psychological. The US made the point that Russia was not behaving as a responsible member of the community of nations. The US made it clear that Russia’s membership in the G8 was at stake. Most importantly, the US made it clear with their words that increasing Russian aggression would be met with increasing US confrontation, not less confrontation, as the Russians may have been hoping.

Where do you live? Nevada? Central Australia? Do you have a personal nuke-proof bunker? On a more serious note, please enlighten us about
a) the real (and not propaganda-engineered) parallels between the current situation in Georgia and the political/strategic problems between Russia and the aforementioned Central European states? Are the Czechs or the Poles intending to carpet bomb a town inhabited by Russian citizens and protected by russian peacekeepers, eh?

The parallel is that Georgia (on one hand) and Poland and Czech (on the other) represent flash points in the contest of Western expansion vs. Eastern (Russian) expansion.

I’m sure you realize that the Kremlin doesn’t care about anyone in S.O. or Abkhazia as human beings. The Kremlin only cares because these people are giving Russia an opportunity to establish a foothold south of the Cacusus Mountains (other than Armenia).

b) how you imagine a Western intervention in Georgia. Sitrep, timelines, ROE, order of battle, strategy. Please do. I haven’t been in a good mood for days.

I don’t know what form it would take. Although a company of US soldiers flying the US flag on the road from Tskhinvali to Gori would have created an interesting situation.

Just as an aside, we’ve just watched the Olympic beach volleyball match between Georgia and Russia, not surprisingly shown live on BBC1.
Yes, a game watched for really all the wrong reasons, apart from the politics, who can resist watching those bikini clad, sun tanned lovelies, the Russians don’t supply rivet spitters from Murmansk anymore.
What a surprise, the stadium was packed to it’s 12000 capacity, guess who won, Georgia of course, they were driven to it by national pride and a biased Chinese crowd, they couldn’t lose under the circumstances.
Interesting to see how reticent the Russian athletes were at shaking the hands of their victors afterwards, were they under instruction I wonder, sad unsporting ******s if they were.

Those Georgian players were natives of Brazil, although they had been granted Georgian citizenship. Maybe that explains the lack of bloodshed on the sand.

Also writing on the wall for missile defense ambitions of the U.S around Russian borders. Game over.

Hardly. Czech and Poland are members of NATO, Russia cannot touch them. PERIOD.

The Russian population may think that they have sent a message but actually Russia was forced to back down by pressure from the West. Sure, Western military intervention in Georgia would have been difficult, but that is not the case for Poland or the Czech Rep. They would be defended with all necessary force.

Russia was ,is and would all the time be a superpower.It is just that they don’t boast and soon after the cold-war,Russia has rather been thinking about her economic problems, and the U.S took advantage of this to fool around, with the western propaganda as the one and only world’s superpower.

Russia doesn’t even have one full-size aircraft carrier. The fact is, Russia does not have an ability to project force throughout the world, and that is a requirement of being a superpower. The only global power projection Russia can muster is ICBMs/SLBMs. However, you often need more moderate force than that.

Errr … no. It’s not up to the US to decide who gets to join NATO – they tried this before, a few months ago – France and Germany quite rightly said no – if Bush, the fool, had gotten his way a few months ago, NATO would’ve been obligated to go to war with the Russian Federation over a craphole like Georgia. Madness.

I never said it was up to the US alone. The NATO membership as a whole has decided, at least in principle, that Georgia will be a NATO member.

NATO Bid

“We always fight for our friends,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on July 10 in Tbilisi of Georgia’s NATO bid. While NATO refused to grant Georgia fast-track status for membership in April, Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said the alliance agreed that Georgia and another aspirant, Ukraine, “will become members of NATO.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aOeOUbRP_wcs&refer=australia