Yeah, sure they have, but tragically for HAL, there numerous optomistic staements on what they think will happen may not sell fighters in a tough open market.
Man, i thought i was bad in mathematics.
1- The plane only has 40 orders worth two squadrons.
2- for the 40 planes there is no need of a production line that churns out 40 per year.
This has nothing to do with the open market, or a closed one.
Yes, but even this was’t done in time ??? (to admit similar to all other current fighters) … and when will the Mk.2 be fylaing … when will it be cerified …. and when will it be in service in substantial numbers ???
Are You sure ?? … If I’m correct – but sorry; I don’t remember the source – it was stated that HAL could currently only deliver 8-12 Tejas per year even if they wanted to produce more.
Deino
.
Some sanity prevailing…
Here is the link
‘Currently we can manufacture 8 aircraft per annum, which is extendable up to 12,’ Rao said at a press conference at the INS Hansa, a naval base in Goa 30 km from here’
The delivering 8-12 units is due to the number of orders of the initial lot, HAL could invest multi million dollars and set up a lot of lines producing the plane, however for a total order of 40 mark I version, that makes no sense at all.
HAL has made plenty of statements about the situations (google the source)
Kind of strange people think that there is some magical problem HAL faces in setting up production lines for the project they have participated in.
As many never tire of pointing out, GE engine is for MK1. For MK2 (The version I assume they want to export) no engine as of yet.
There will be one, the tender for 99 with a option of 45 is out and underway (with two competitors) with a lot of cash dedicated to it (the tender), does that make a difference (the engine), say its F-414, just dont see just that getting any sales on its own.
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To me it seems that most nations that have placed recent orders of F-16s or JAS-39 will need replacement after 3 decades and the ones replacing F-16s right now and in the next few years will already have options they are considering.
The nations without the money will buy something much more cheaper, the nations with money and without the political option will go for a options from Russia/PRC (as i assume they will be the sort which need political backing).
far too many factors, when the LCA mark 2 comes out, the option that looks the best to me is to get it into the InAF in big numbers, if the plane is the same 7 hard point one with marginal increase in the payload above the clean range the InAF will still have the same requirement it has stated on some occasions (that of replacing all the MiG-21 squadrons).
will that be an accurate observation?
India, Russia close to PACT on next generation fighter
Ajai Shukla/New Delhi – Jan 05,2010 00:38 AMLate last year, a defence ministry delegation to Sukhoi’s flagship aircraft facility in Siberia became the first Indians to set eyes upon the next-generation fighter that is slated to form the backbone of the future Indian Air Force (IAF). In that first meeting, carefully choreographed by Sukhoi, the new fighter, standing on the tarmac waved a welcome to the Indians, moving all its control fins simultaneously.
The effect, recounts one member of that delegation, was electric. The senior IAF officer there walked silently up to the aircraft and touched it almost incredulously. This was the Sukhoi T-50, the first technology demonstrator of what India terms the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). Senior defence ministry sources tell Business Standard that — after five years of haggling over the FGFA’s form, capabilities and work-share — a detailed contract on joint development is just around the corner.
The contract, which Bangalore-based Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) will sign with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), will commit to building 250 fighters for the IAF and an equal number for Russia. The option for further orders will be kept open. HAL and UAC will be equal partners in a joint venture company, much like the Brahmos JV, that will develop and manufacture the FGFA.
The cost of developing the FGFA, which would be shared between both countries, will be $8-10 billion (Rs 37,000-45,000 crore). Over and above that, say IAF and defence ministry sources, each FGFA will cost Rs 400-500 crore.
Sukhoi’s FGFA prototype, which is expected to make its first flight within weeks, is a true stealth aircraft, almost invisible to enemy radar. According to a defence ministry official, “It is an amazing looking aircraft. It has a Radar Cross Section (RCS) of just 0.5 square metre as compared to the Su-30MKI’s RCS of about 20 square metres.&”
http://wap.business-standard.com/storypage.php?id=5&autono=381718
Amazing article, but no .000000001 of RCS, and su-30 at 20 sq. m., woohaa thats a big fat bird.
Remaining clear of that, its strange the Russian authorities started quoting the RCS figures before the plane was made public and indian MoD officials are telling it to journalists?
The contract negotiations will be interesting.
RCS ~0.5m^2? That could be anything. Frontal? Lateral? Some Overall value? Deliberate, mis-information? Plus, if they found a way to implement plasma stealth, then that should level things out. Time will tell… Well just have to wait…
It could also be wrong
if the journalists and their sources are to be believed, a lot of things could come true.
I won’t have posted on an India issue in a pak thread but since you don’t care I’ll expose your ignorance/lies once again.
proof please.:dev2: else you are nothing but a source of hot-air on this forum. taking potshots and inventing fictitious information is all you do.
this is from today.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100103/jsp/nation/story_11936636.jsp5 January 2009,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India_inks_largest-ever_defence_deal_with_US/articleshow/3934357.cms
Boeing P-8I Selected as Indian Navy”s Long-Range Maritime Patrol Aircraft .
“The men and women of The Boeing Company are pleased that India has selected the P-8I,” said Jim Albaugh, president and CEO of Boeing Integrated Defense Systems (IDS). “This aircraft will provide outstanding capabilities tailored to India’s unique maritime-patrol requirements.”
http://www.boeing.co.in/ViewContent.do?id=43342&Year=2009
Strangely, if India ever decides which MRCA it will buy, it will open up the others to go for the next market. There are a few reasons PAF waits. One is the money and the others is that you have to wait till the large buyers are done. Otherwise you get no deal and if it is a deal you will pay the big price.
Gripen NG is an option for IAF. If that passes and PAF qualifies it as the best option it will be not a huge problem. Unless Sea Gripen becomes a real asset for IN.
With the future J-10 purchase, the FC-1 and the F-16s, is there any margin left for more planes?
its meant to show the externally accessible handle that can be used to eject the canopy and extricate a pilot who may be stuck inside (like happened to the F-22 pilot). thats what the RESCUE arrow points to.
Perhaps a sign to point out that once the rescue handle is operated the canopy will come off with an explosion?
Why the bolts on top of the semicircle?
[ATTACH]180235[/ATTACH]
What does that sign mean (inside the rectangle)?
the pic is a part of this larger image
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_zUe7sq7m3h0/R8TH7yMzRmI/AAAAAAAAADk/FxI7Q6qIigg/s1600-h/P1090802.JPG
Actually I was talking about AERO INDIA 2003 when HAL presented a mock up of the LCH, though later they have made many modification to that. It was quoted by HAL chief or any other senior officer that LCH will fly by 2005. But its a beauty indeed. 🙂
Which was the Aero India where the same thing happened with a HALs model for a advanced jet trainer (something like the hawk), mock up and all, only to end up as a orphan sponserless project?
According to him, if the European engine maker offers 100% transfer of technology, the price of its bid would shoot up; “Then its bid would not be competitive.”Eurojet has said it would form a joint venture with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd or some private company to fulfill its offset obligation.
GE, which will supply the F-414 engine, is also said to have acquired the approval of the US government for technology transfer for the LCA programme. The two companies that have bid for the $750 million order for 99 engines for Tejas.
Reference :-
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_tejas-engine-offset-offers-come-in_1322774
Its not like there is any chance of USA allowing GE to sell all the technologies involved in the F-414 engine, esp. as the super hornet is going to be flying for the USN for a long time.
I have always thought that it would have been better for LCA and Indian aviation industry (as a whole) had the LCA been inducted into IAF in its basic form, and subsequent developments would have been done in blocks. However, IAF being the user of an ADA/HAL product (I dont think IAF was actually an active party in its development???) had every right to expect a product at a certain time (whatever time (realistic/unrealistic) they were given by the designers/manufacturers) and ask for any additions if they felt that a certain product (if not provided within the original timeframe) was no longer relevant .
Given the anticipated nature of a war in the subcontinent (Intense and Short), will that be a wise choice for the IAF?
12 planes a years is enough!? That means it would take 17 years to make 200 planes!!!!
That would not be able to cover the amount of aircraft the IAF is retiring (even assuming SU-30 and MRCA are ordered)
Also, attrition may take 2-3 planes off this number a year.
Agreed, many factors define success I suppose. I stand corrected.
I think you continuosly fail to understand what i am saying.
“The capacity of 12 planes per year is meant to produce the current requirement of 20 planes. If and when more planes are ordered the capacity will be increased.”
Attrition. When inducted some LCA will crash over there lifetime.
Yes, you are right, capacity will have to be ramped up, and right now this has not been done. Until it has been donw, no large orders can be filled by HAL.
Agreed, you will have to wait and see what decision the IAF make, This is the point I have been trying to make.
I think “successful” will probably be defined as induction into teh air force in signifcant numbers. The IAF has 800+ combat aircraft and ordered 40 LCA so far. I am sure we can agree we still need to wait to see if this is a “success”…
A capacity of 12 planes per year is more than enough, especially for the current 20.
This is the egg and hen debate, there is no physical or monetary problem in ramping up capacity, it will be a welcome step as it will increase employment for the vast number of engineers and technical diploma holders that are appearing on the radar faster than the economy can absorb them. What is lacking are orders for the investment to be made.
Wait indeed, however one can discuss (over tea or on the internet) the points that might make the AF take the decision, no harm in that.
Well until the plane retires, indeed one has to wait.
I am of the opinion that only when in service for a long time, a military equipment can be labelled a success or failure. No use labelling a huge disappointment and under-performer a success just because its mass produced.
At this point with the 20 planes on order and the tender for some 99 engines under way (with two applicants for fulfilling the tender), it is inevitable that the LCA program will churn out between 100~150 planes, however its only when the plane performs in service that the plane can be called a success.
The program however might be successful if it is able to churn out enough planes to justify the initial investment.
Thanks for the above, but you have not stated anything new.
8 planes a year maybe good for a 20 planes IOC by 2012, but anything more? Its hardley enough to cover attrition.
ADA “expects” the IAF to buy more I am sure. Lets wait and see what the IAF do.
Until the 99 engine are selected and integrated, would you not agree there is room for delays/problems?
I stated only the things i saw from the links you posted, so yes nothing new.
But its not 8 planes, its 8-12 planes (from your link),
Why would they increase the capacity without receiving order for more planes?
What attrition?
Yes that is the primary issue, let us wait for what decision the AF takes regarding orders for more MK-I version, no use imagining they will or will not order them.
There is plenty of room for delays, in my opinion there will be huge delays, however you should see that a 800 million dollars (for around 100 engines) worth of contract is in place, the government and the InAF are not kidding around.
Edit: only some engines need to be integrated into modified MK2 prototypes, rest will be simply produced in a HAL production line.
What did you mean by a successful program?
I dont doubt many want the current situation to change.
“HAL will try and recruit more people”. I am sure.
They will select an engine. Again I am sure.
However, as you have listed, there are still many variables. The facts I have quoted represent the project as it is now.
Mk1 or MK2. The thing needs an engine. Even when one is selected you will find it will take time to integrate and may throw up a host of probelms.
What if there are massive problems with the new engine?Would the IAF “pledge its support and order 100+”!?
Okie-Dokie, here is the thing in very simple and logical format:-
The current capacity of 8-12 aircrafts per year is more than enough to meet the order for 20 planes with IOC capability by 2012.
India is running a contract to buy 99 engines, the 99 engines will be used in something called planes. The InAF is part of the team that came out with this tender.
MK-I version flies on a GE engine, and 20 of these planes have completed the IOC stage
http://www.drdo.com/dpi/ADA.pdf
IOC definition: The state achieved when Military Capability is available in its minimum usefully deployable form. The date of achievement is the ISD.
In-Service Date (ISD). In-Service Date is declared when the military capability provided by the system is assessed as available for operational use in its minimum usefully deployable form (IOC).
http://www.aof.mod.uk/aofcontent/tactical/randa/content/glossary.htm
ADA expects the InAF to buy more MK-I versions.
What do you mean by a “successful program”?
insomnia.delhi,
Did IAF mentioned about a deadline date for LCA in any place first? If so give me a source for that.
If you don’t have that, Listen to This one last time. IAF is now part of the LCA Project. They know better than any of us when LCA MKII will be ready for induction.
Well they have not stated a deadline, and they wont do it through press or quoted sources, however we can guess a time-frame when the planes start to approach the ‘can not fly any more’ age, and the AF has to start their replacement.
How can they know when LCA MK-II will be ready, they can have a expected time-frame, buy really no one can predict the future, the expected schedule can be completed in time or may be it wont be, no need being so sensitive about it, just a discussion.