Nonsense, this is the An-30 over Slavyansk from last month. Complete incompetence to air this footage in the context of MH17.
Btw, the Russian data is the only one available and no one seems to report it…
Kupol will be giving the situational awareness only, TELARs do not necessarily need to be next to it. I believe everything up to (and maybe including) Marinivka and Armosiivka was under Ukrainian control. At any rate, it is not something conclusive (for/against who shot it down). It could be just a proof that statements from US/Kiev about no Buks in the area were not entirely true.
Mercurius, given that you are one of the most experienced members here, what would be your best guess at the situation given the publicly available data (as far as we have something)? If not for the culprit, then at least about a theory what more or less happened?
I don’t care about conspiracy theories or trying to excuse them. What I have said are the facts from a very extensive search what is actually going on in the region. Going back to my post in http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?131080-Malaysian-Airlineus-777-shot-down-over-Ukraine&p=2154320#post2154320 , I could also add that locals claim that when the airliner was shot down there was at least one UA airplane in the region – sorry the link is in Bulgarian, but unfortunately it appears no one else actually bothered to ask the locals what happened – http://novanews.bg/news/view/2014/07/19/80858/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0-%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%B7%D0%B0-%D1%81%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%BE-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%82-mh17/ Mind you, I don’t think the UA airplane shot the Boeing down, but what it could have easily contributed to is a mistake by a non-professional Buk crew under pressure.
From the point of view that Russia is a side in the conflict and has very state-dependent media I could understand why they would blame Ukraine. What I do not understand is why respectable media like BBC or the Guardian would quote 1:1 UA propaganda and play the blame game by oversimplifying what is going on or copying blatant lies. It creates utter hysteria and essentially gets to the point where one fails to see the difference between BBC and RT (except where they get their money from). Everybody plays the blame game to milk every political dividend possible with no respect to the truth or the people who died.
You do realize the people trying to blame the rebels for covering up facts could also be counted as pure conspiracy nutters? I know people here haven’t been following the conflict in detail, but at least to me it the following is apparent (from Russian speaking forums in the last months):
1. The rebels do not have a state-like structure and everything is extremely disorganized; no central command to speak of.
2. The rebels right now are being VERY hard pressed and fighting for their lives; the UA is outnumbering them something like 5:1 or 10:1.
3. The crash site is something like 10-20 square kilometers. They simply do not have the required people to secure the site assuming they had the good will to do so. Every fighter they could muster is right now trying to prevent Donetsk being cut off from Lugansk.
3.1 Hence impossible to stop marauders; moreover, an Ipad will cost more than 2-4 monthly pensions of a villager who probably did not receive any money in the last 2-3 months of fighting.
4. There are no rescue services to speak of – hence I doubt they have any significant number of people looking for the black boxes. Moreover, reports where said black boxes would end up are very confusing and often not citing actual sources – hence you could cherry pick what you want to report based on your agenda.
5. The Ukrainian government complained about tampering evidence because rebels had started to remove bodies. This is completely insane – the temperature in the region is 35C and the bodies were scattered over populated villages – could you imagine what would happen to the bodies if left in such heat over the course of a week before investigators actually get to the scene?
6. Overall, both sides have been blatantly lying in the conflict so far and now the BBC and company are reporting every possible allegation Poroshenko could come up with. It is stupid from the simple perspective that both rebels and UA have been living in parallel universes compared to ours in the media arena. No one actually bothers to go and properly report what is going on.
6.1 About lying – there have been clips of UA Buks in the region (denied by the UA but also shown the previous days on mass media), also clips of how rebels capture a TELAR (also denied by UA). So for the life of me, I would not trust either rebel or Ukrainian Army information.
In the end of the day, at least my hypothesis is that the likelihood of rebels shooting down the plane versus UA doing it is something like 70:30. That being said, the UA is criminally responsible for not notifying the rest of the world its high performance SAMs were captured (not done for propaganda purposes) and keeping planes routed over a war zone (which is essentially also denied for propaganda purposes – officially this is anti terrorist operation, not war) where an An-26 was shot down allegedly (not 100% sure myself) above MANPAD range. Mind you, this was claimed to have been done by a Russian Air Force plane but the tune changed the moment the Boeing went down.
As for the rebels – they are being severely bombed and target anything that flies. No command structure, not much training (a lot of former military volunteers with unknown experience). If they shot the airplane it was probably done by mistake and because of overly zealous operators lacking any situational awareness. IMHO it would have been completely preventable if Ukraine was actually honest about its losses (SAMs and An-26 included) and had taken prompt action to reroute airliners.
That being said, the media is completely insane on both sides – without ANY evidence what exactly happened accusations on both sides have grown to the point where the truth has become irrelevant. If I can paraphrase the Inhabited Island by Strugatsky – “nice and educated people, but when the anti-ballistic missile towers are turned on, they go completely crazy”.
Don’t know about MiG-21 and F-15 in a dogfight, but I remember reading the posts of a MiG-21bis fighter pilot from the Soviet squadrons sent to Afganistan (the most experienced ones) and how they could beat anything in the Soviet inventory in a dogfight… And then MiG-29 appeared. 4 vs 1 dogfight with 4 VERY experienced pilots in the MiG-21bis, yet they could not get even one shot at the 29, WVR, attacking from different directions and giving their best.
I have a couple of questions:
That’s all very nice without AWACS, but didn’t F-22 have some issues with Link 16?
Also, to cover the AWACS area you need at least 4-8 emitting at full power stealth aircraft, which doesn’t appear to make the things overly stealthy.
Wouldn’t a modern computer on a jet, let’s say F-35, give you an accuracy of give or take 100-300 meters for a dumb bomb? It kind of doesn’t make sense with a nuclear bomb to be 1m on target…
Remember that the engines of the Su-33 could runs slightly hotter for an increase of about a ton on each engine, the total trust is 27kN (13.5 per engine).
Bulgaria is not buying anything in the next 5-10 years, no money at all. We are keeping the 29s as long as they can last.
It’s in Russian, but that’s about all that is known.
http://flot.com/news/other/soobrfire/
The fire started from the diesel generators and some fuel accumulated there? The fire extinguishing system got everything wet and that meant they could not get on their own power. It sounds confusing, but nothing else unfortunately 🙁
I have some vague memory that IRST and radar in MiG-29 could work together in one of the WVR modes?
Although depending on distances you might want to use laser to find the range, shouldn’t have problems with low RCS.
There are indeed constant confirmations online that the financing for 22350 and all subsystems is not rhythmic enough – sometimes you get tons of money, sometimes there is half an year with no payment at all.
Might be a bit off-topic, but still – as far as Bulgarian MiG-23 and 29 are concerned, the MiG-23 had definitely the better radar – about 10-20 km more range and moreover it was more mature at least in the beginning. MiG-23MLD’s were also quite manueverable. However, keep in mind that our MLD’s were one of the last ones ever produced and some of them produced for the Soviet Air Force – thus they have all possible upgrades (both in electronics and aerodynamics).
I think it was originally envisioned as a universal active-seeking warhead missile family for both land and sea use.