So it (FC-31) will soon be a real threat to Su-57’s exports.
Honestly, RALL, I don’t see them competing much at all. They are completely different weapon systems, and are oriented towards different parts of the market. The Su-57 is designed as the logical upgrade for Flanker users – having a large flight endurance and a high payload capacity. It will also appeal to anyone seeking a 5th gen fighter with an internal storage compartment designed for large munitions as well as those who desire a robust sensor platform.
The FC-31, on the other hand, seems to be a “bare bones” type of 5th gen fighter. You get the radar and MAWS…and that’s about it. It doesn’t have anywhere near the range and it can’t carry as much. But (if they finish the design) it should have appeal for those only seeking a cheap 5th gen.
The J-20 would compete better with the Su-57.
However, the logic that they are hiding WS-15 because they lack confidence in it because turbofans are an area where they are behind doesn’t really make sense…
Sure it does. The CJ-1000 shows as much. It has a VERY slow development path. Unlike the established players, China doesn’t have decades of experience in single crystal superalloys and all of the bonded coats that goes with them. So they have to work cautiously. And, since the Ws-15 is a military project, they keep it tightly under wraps.
…because if that was the case then we wouldn’t have more information and pictures about other Chinese engine programmes in the present or in the past when they were at similar or earlier stages of development compared to WS-15
I think you are overplaying some very slight differences. Almost nothing was known about other Chinese engine projects (Ws-10, Ws-20, etc.) prior to flight testing. Pictures were sparse and usually of questionable validity and few if any reliable performance targets or program milestones were given. Even well after flight testing starts they are still kept under a hefty veil of secrecy – such as Ws-20 is still to this day.
Instead, if we look at how much information or pictures we receive about various engine projects, WS-15 is actually the exception in regards to how little we know about it.
CJ-1000 is the exception – it has to be since it is intended for widespread civilian use. Ws-15 fits in tightly with the rule. I don’t think we can agree much here.
From flightglobal (in addition to the re-engine work described above) the B-52 will get a new Raytheon AESA radar in the mid 20s.
Don’t get your hopes too high. The NGF and Tempest programs could end up very competitive. The French-German-Spanish project absolutely has the better market outlook at this time. But it is disadvantaged in not having as clear of a path towards developing an engine and (perhaps most importantly) Germany is a member – and the German government tends to add in export restrictions which might make plays in the middle east and such more difficult.
I’m not sure what you are going about with ITAR. You can make armaments fully compliant with NATO mandated codes and standards and have no ITAR obligations. Saying they want a non-ITAR platform just means they won’t be able to source critical material from the US. If they can do that and still meet their deadline of the mid to late 30s then more power to them.
Are you guys certain that those old B&W photos represent the Romanian roundel? They didn’t look right to me so I took the color image at the top of the page and used a couple of online converters to get a grayscale image.
https://onlinejpgtools.com/convert-jpg-to-grayscale
https://onlinepngtools.com/convert-png-to-grayscale
In both cases, it ended up looking like this:
[ATTACH=JSON]{“data-align”:”none”,”data-size”:”full”,”title”:”PNGgrayscale.png”,”data-attachmentid”:3867359}[/ATTACH]
I’m thinking the middle band should be the darkest in any old photos of that Romanian roundel. Or, it could be a curious case of modern digital conversions not behaving like old photography.
Update on this – and a possible explanation for the fiery crash being ruptured wing fuel tanks due to stresses on landing gear struts.
[USER=”39911″]TomcatViP[/USER] – Don’t you think current fighter customers might be a better indicator of future fighter customers though?
Sure, it would help if Japan and/or Turkey joined the program. That’s all just hypothetical for now though.
[USER=”39911″]TomcatViP[/USER] – And please don’t think I’m discounting that. But keep in mind, Saab’s customers tend to be small states which will not order very many aircraft.
Report – Russia having troubles with producing high temperature tolerant carbon fibers for the composites to be used in Avanguard.
That said…even if they do only make ~60 in the near term, that still makes for a hell of a deterrent.
Y’all need to buy Lockmart stocks!!!
Fighter Aircraft Market worth $260 billion over next 10 years
Key part – “Of the nearly 3,400 fighters expected to roll off the production lines during the next 10 years, 1,548 will be F-35s, representing some 45.5 percent of the market.”
Boeing to build and refurb up to 600 Apaches
India’s still considering a large fighter deal
Russia’s military orders 108 new helicopters at Army-2019
Sweden is a good partner from the aspect of developing the aircraft. But they aren’t from the aspect of market size. This program needs a country which makes substantial buys for it to get off the ground.
[USER=”31611″]Blitzo[/USER] – We don’t know if they have flown it yet. We really don’t know anything about it! We don’t know if the images shown reflect the final configuration of the engine (they may not). We don’t know whether the installation of the engine will require modifications to the J-20. We don’t know whether the program experienced a catastrophic incident either (the engine blew up story). We know more about Japan’s engine than China’s.
My point is that the lack of pictures of WS-15 (tbh we don’t even really know what it looks like apart from that poor res image of its core) including on the supposed test aircraft should not really be taken as an indication of lack of confidence in the engine itself.
The lack of pictures by themselves don’t, yes. Be it is certain that they are struggling in fielding relatively modern engine designs. We know that from their development path with the CJ-1000. The lack of Y-20s flying with the Ws-20 point in that direction too. And that IS almost certainly the reason for the tight secrecy in the project. China doesn’t like to look weak. And turbofan engine design and construction is one area where they still are.