where did you find out Ukraine retired 50 Flankers?
i thought they were just in storage.

as for Belarus, they will be following the path of the Baltics and let a foreign country do their air policing.

since you have Turkey you might as well add Kazakhstan to European air forces

with the way things are going in Greece, don’t be surprised they end up with just 50 fixed wing fighters within 5 years.

no and no

What is the rationale behind the MiG-35 purchase really? (Not meant as a rhetorical question). Is there a logical role for it to play/fill in the future RuAF organization, or is it rather a politicaly motivated decission in order to support (save?) RSK MiG financially?

If its considerably cheaper to buy, operate and maintain than the new generation of Su-30s it makes sence I guess, but else…

yes!

I see the PAK-FA as the “natural” successor to the MiG25 for former (or current in the case of algeria) operators of the type… OK. they have SU-30MKAs… but still, looking at the size of algeria, they would be looking to get a true “premier” fighter to replace the old MiG25s within the next 6-10 years… where the PAK-FA can slot in nicely. If the moroccans end up with some F35s after 2020 (or even a whiff of looking at some!) then the algerians will surely spunk out the cash for a squadron of PAK-FAs.

who says the Pak-fa is a natural successor to the mig-25? its not.
Algeria is using Su-30MKA to take over the recon roles of their MiG-25. There is no need dire requirement for them to go pak-fa. Most of their enemies are islamists and the su-30mka’s long range makes it a useful patrol aircraft.

Libya… starting from scratch, loads of money, large territory to cover, historical user of MiG25s, west isn’t going to “trust” them with high-tech stuff… natural customer!

libya today is not libya of history. the west will make sure they buy western stuff.

Syria… if Assad survives he’d buy some (even if its “funded” by Iran as a proxy)… it’d replace the MiG25s as their premier fighter, once again one squadron’s worth.

Syria is broke with Assad, it will be broke after Assad. did you not notice the relatively few orders for aircraft after the 90s?

Egypt… if someone else pays, they’d take it tomorrow… unlikely as long as the muslim brotherhood are in power though.

Egypt is firmly in the US orbit with a slight foot in China

Sudan… their “war” with the south could escalate. but they are in deep financial trouble. if they ever manage to “recapture” some of the oil fields in the south, they’d be looking to beef up their defences from an expected angry AU… but they are an “outside” chance.

broke

Iraq… depending on what happens with their current weapons deal with Russia… very strong possibility. they will have the cash, and as a former operator of soviet fighters they do appreciate their sukhois and migs…

30% chance

UAE / Kuwait don’t shy away from buying russian… and its unlikely the US will give them access to much stealth tech… so they may make a deal with russia.

No to kuwait, UAE 20% chance

Kazakhstan… almost guaranteed.

I agree mushrooms are good

Belarus… maybe a squadron’s worth funded by Russia?

now why would Russia buy Belarus Pak-fa?

Ukraine… unlikely unless major changes happen in relations with russia…

15% chance. relations are not that bad. Russians hate Ukrainians more than Ukrainians hate Russians. Ukrainians are focusing their hate on people of colour instead.

Venezuela, Peru in latin america are a strong possibility… followed by the wild cards of brazil and argentina…

Venezeula 50% chance, peru 25%

Serbia getting an understrength squadron would be interesting… if they don’t get into the EU/NATO… quietly “sponsored” by Russia… Perhaps if greece falls out of the EU sphere they may end up with a small “symbolic” force as part of the new “orthodox cross over the balkans /aegean”… but this scenario is rather unlikely, unless NATO escalate their deployments close to Russia…

Serbian Pak-fa’s will go straight to the hanger just like their mig-29 fleet.
Greece needs Pak-fa to counter Turkish TFX and F-35s but they are brokedy broke broke

all in all, I’d expect to see at least 300 PAK-FAs finding export customers… but mostly in small batches of no more than 20 aircraft per air force (except maybe kazakhstan who’d have a larger fleet to cover their territories).

[/quote]

I expect 299 export customers.

Only four Flankers were upgraded to UBM2 standard thus far

this link says 10
http://www.spy.kz/Vlast_i_Politic/VVS-Kazahstana-vpervye-prodemonstrirovali-modernizirovannye-istrebiteli-Su-27UBM2/

but whether its 10 or 4, don’t matter. good opportunity to retire MiG-31 and some other types and use the money to upgrade the rest of their Flankers and Fulcrums while waiting for Pak-fa and 1 squadron of yak-130s to replace the L-39s

An average of 95% of a fighter airplane’s life is spent in training — tactics, transition training and pilot procedural qualifications.
Another 1% for post-maintenance functional check flights.
Another 3% for ferry flights.
That leaves 1% for actual combat operations.

If you want an airplane to last a long time, take the “meat servo” out of the cockpit.

what about concerns over bandwidth and communications to a ucav fighter
situational awareness concerns, etc?

Fresh official news about MiG-35:

– contract for VVS maybe in the first half of this year
– and… hope in India!!!

More on the official MiGs site here (.pdf in russian):
http://www.migavia.ru/news/?page=1&tid=4&id=70

Geo

chance Rafale fails in India 50%
chance India goes for MiG-35 is 0%
more likely they rather go for su-30MKI. nothing Mig 35 has over the upgraded 30mki.