Essentially, it comes down to having 12 operative F35C and, say, 18 crews fully trained, plus of course groundcrews prepared for carrier ops.

This was available time ago, when the “big buy of 138 planes” was still the plan. Also, the dates have most likely changed, but still it can be interesting:

The following dates are best estimates based on current information in the public domain:

* January 2009: UK places order for 2 or 3 Operational Test and Evaluation JSF’s
* 2012: First UK aircraft delivery
* 2013: Production order placed
* 2017: JCA In-Service-Date (limited initial operational capability IOC with about 8 aircraft).
* 2019-20: The Harrier is taken out of service, about 50 years after entering service on April 1, 1969! [Sadly, this will not be the case]
* 2020: First F-35B equipped JCA squadron operationally deployed on a CVF
* c.2027: JCA deliveries complete

Curious how, now that i read it carefully, a full squadron was not planned to be carrier-ready before 2020 even before the last SDSR!

USN F35C IOC has been moved in march this year to 2016. Always in 2016 is planned the first deployment on a carrier.

A US DOD planning document dated November 2001 showed year by year how the UK F-35 aircraft would be delivered (orders would need to be placed approximately two years earlier), divided into 4 categories of test, training, operations and attrition.

Test now would be the 3 planes already on order and planned to arrive in 2012. Maybe it slip forwards if the order is switched from 3 F35B to F35C? Ideally no, but it is possible. The MOD itself may ask for it to save money in the short term, but LM would oppose it because it would slow down the test schedule and cause a mess.

When the IOC was planned in 2012, the MOD planned to buy:

2 Test planes in 2009
4 x Training and 2 x Operational planes in 2010
8 x Operations in 2011
4 x Training + 6 x Operations in 2012
4 + 8 in 2013
2 + 10 in 2014
2 + 10 in 2015
4 x Operation in 2016

with further buy of planes up to 2024, for a total of 84 additional airframes to put in long-term storage and cover attrition.
Plan was for 4 Squadrons of 12 planes and 18 pilots each, plus a 16-strong OCU.
Attrition aircraft would replace those lost in squadron service and any excess would go into long term storage. Squadron aircraft would be cycled through storage to ensure the fleet accumulated hours evenly across airframes.

US DOD reports that orders would need to be placed approximately two years earlier. Order in 2013, get the planes in 2015, a further two years to reach IOC with 8 planes.
If IOC for UK is now to be expected in 2019, a firm order for the first F35C is to be placed, say, in 2015.
It may be the next SDSR that makes the first firm order for F35C planes.

More aggressive yearly timeline for acquiring planes, and the decision to train pilots with the USN navy instead of creating a UK OCU might make it possible to have a full squadron ready in 2020, with 2 more to form in the following 2/3 years.
UK pilots are already training on F18 in the US right now. The US plan to have a school for allied pilots of F35, and the UK’s best choice would be to join that school, paying some obviously, eventually even buying a little number of airplanes to use for training, but still saving over what it would cost to:
-Build a training facility on land for carrier-ops training, something the UK has not by so many years by now
-Create and run a full OCU squadron (aka either one operative squadron less or more planes to be bought)

The UK JCA force might then consist of 3 x 12 = 36 operative planes, 18 x 3 pilots = 54 pilots and N spare airframes, depending on how many are bought complexively.
24 spare airframes if 60 are bought… and it looks like an acceptable figure for a 36 strong fleet, goddamnit, almost a 1 to 1 rate.
The “rosy days” plan wanted more than a 1 to 1 rate, but that sincerely looks like a waste, and a big one. It would virtually double the life of the fleet with rotation of airframes in service, perhaps, but, seriously! 64 operative fighters included the OCU and 84 storaged airframes??? It should be the opposite, if you ask me.

A bunch more spare airframes could always be bought well later on, since F35 building is going to be pretty damn long and the factory will be still available to take on orders.

Data as always from Navy Matters – http://navy-matters.beedall.com/jca1-2.htm

For most of the labour years the UK had a growing economy and several departments (NHS on all others) have had their budgets immensely increased.

The MOD did not. It actually got less and less in real terms, with several years of pure drop on spending, which Brown himself was forced to admit at one point.
The forces shrunk massively (RN on all) in ten years. Even if economy grew.

So, not really.

please excuse this if you all think it too fatuous, but there is a definite sense that things could have been much worse….

When you look at it, the headline of no jets on the carriers till 2020, sounds terrible but fails to point out that the new carriers and new jet type will arrive at the same time.

the MRA4 loss is perhaps the biggest news (and of course there is the aspect of base closures and impact on personnel), but i don’t think the worst of Ligers permutations has even nearly come true has it?

160 typhoon up to T3A at worst. GR4 maintained and the possibility of manned and unmanned future strike variants hoves into view.

I’m no expert on the ship side of things but that doesn’t look too bad to me (of course accepting the notion that it starts from a not wonderful position in the first place)

I don’t wish to sound glib, so apologies if i upset anyone.

Don’t get me wrong, it sure could have been SOOOOO much worse! But pardon me, at the same time, if i’m not laughing either. For one thing, there’s too many unknowns, and too many bad news still:

-HMS Endurance seems set to be repaired (or more likely replaced), but so far there’s no details.
-HMS Ocean may still go, and this would bug me a lot, because Lusty, as wonderful as she is, isn’t worth more than 40% of Ocean in amphibious assault role.
-A Bay was lost, and this bugs me a whole lot, because she was young, cheap, did cover a good lot of roles, and was very effective.
-160 Typhoon APPARENTLY confirmed. But there is no certainty at the moment. What i’d totally LOVE to get is a good schedule which secures the plan that foresees 2 more “Swing Role” squadrons to be created in Leuchars in the next years.
If the Tranche 1 planes are disposed of in any way, that won’t be possible.
-The “up to” 14 air tankers also bugs me. I’d like some explanation on what will be of them.
-Tornado is NOT entirely safe. At least two squadrons, and possibly 3, are going to be disbanded and the others may go down from 12 to 10 planes each. Lossiemouth, or Marham, will close.
-We do not have any idea of the future plan for the F35C. I’d like to know which and how many squadrons are planned.
-The Nimrod MR.4 programme has been cancelled, i.e. the UK will no longer operate a specialist maritime surveillance aircraft
-No news on the future of the Royal Fleet Auxiliary service and new replenishment ships, nor any idea of what will be of current Sea King ASaC and especially no idea for what will replace them. This is a major worry.

Ultimately, i’ll borrow this very painful but sadly realistic analysis of Richard Beedall:

I’ve long been concerned about the logic of building large and expensive aircraft carriers without a clear provision and funding for their air group, and SDSR is a hugely disappointing vindication of this. The RAF managed to kill the RN’s Sea Harrier force and it has now succeeded in disbanding Joint Force Harrier – leaving no fixed wing aircraft able to operate from RN carriers, hence the loss of Ark Royal and probably Illustrious. The RAF’s change of preference from the vertical landing F-35B version of the Joint Strike Fighter to the longer range but carrier capable F-35C seems to be totally dictated by its vision of the later replacing the Tornado aircraft in the manned strike role. [note: the decision to switch to F35C is one i totally approve personally. But Beedall’s is sadly being realistic in the risk of the RAF being very greedy of the future JCA’s ownership and usage. Moreover, the number of active squadrons worries me a lot.] It is likely that only 40-50 F-35C’s [i saw an indication of 60 elsewhere: if that was true and training was to be done in the US, the UK could reach the “minimum” requirement of 3 active squadrons, one Navy and two RAF in my guess. Any less than so would be a disasterous failure] will procured by the UK, and their appearance on the deck of HMS Prince of Wales will probably be as rare as UK operated Harrier’s have been on the decks of HMS Illustrious and Ark Royal in recent years. [save for the single Navy squadron that’s been apparently promised by the SDSR]

Another very serious problem is that HMS Ark Royal will decommission “immediately”, but it will be at least nine years before HMS Prince of Wales conducts her first deck landing of a F-35C. The capability ‘holiday gap’ is enormous – effectively a generation of RN sailors – and will mean the relearning of carrier operations by the RN.
[this is undervalued an aspect, but very true. Besides, the CVF will have to survive and win TWO more Defence Reviews before 2020, and this scares me immensely]

Will we ever again see an aircraft carrier proudly flying the White Ensign whilst operating fixed wing manned jet aircraft? – I’m not sure.

I suspect that a sales brochure for HMS Queen Elizabeth is already being prepared in the quiet hope that an ambitious foreign country might buy her ‘off the stocks’ at a heavily discounted price; for example if fitted with arresting gear she would be an excellent fit for the Indian Navy. As for Prince of Wales, it will be another ten years before she may just possibly enter service in a ‘cat and trap’ configuration.

As to the motivation for my pessimism for dreams of a future uplift in the conditions of the british armed forces, i also borrow from Beedall’s merciless but real facts:

Ten years ago the RN had three aircraft carriers (to be replaced two large new carriers in 2012 and 2015), three squadron’s of Sea Harriers (to be replaced by four much larger RAF and RN JSF equipped squadrons from 2012) , 12 SSN’s (Swiftsure to be replaced by Astute’s and Trafalgar by a new class of SSN’s in the original plan) and 32 frigates and destroyers (12 of which would be replaced by Type 45 destroyers, and the other 20 by advanced future surface combatants)

My biggest fear is: how much more will political blindness shrink the forces in the next ten years…?
I think that smaller than the current numbers, realistically we should never go. But i’m pretty sure no government shares my view on this.

Besides, Type 26 and LPH replacement (if there’s any chance to replace Ocean when she goes) may still have to fight for survival against Trident successor submarines if the MOD is still asked to pay without a substantial increase in the budget from 2015 onwards (back to pre-2010 SDSR levels, ideally, and maybe some more).

This, ultimately, is why i can’t smile more than a little bit.
I’m relieved in part, but i’m also anxious for the still-missing details… and deeply unsure about the future.

six Type 45 Destroyers, the most advanced multirole destroyer

If the Harpoons from the decommissioned Type 22s are moved to Daring and Dauntless and so along, along with Phalanxs from Ark Royal and others, this statement will look a lot less false than it does now.

And anyway the Peacetime load of CVF was always thought to be 12 planes on average, plus a number of MASC platforms and possibly up to 6 or so Merlins.
It wasn’t an SDSR surprise or invention.

Sample CVF “Tailored” Air Groups (aka Carrier Strike Joint Force Air Groups):

Likely Baseline TAG
(“Peacetime”, minor exercises)

9 – 12 x Harrier GR.9 or F-35B STOVL Joint Strike Fighters;
4 x Maritime Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft/helicopters/UAVs
6 x Merlin HM helicopters
Total = 22 – 25

Strike Configured TAG (“Crisis”, major exercises) [expected was one major exercise every 2 years, but it will depend on budget, like with major Amphibious exercises]
18 – 24 Harrier GR9 or F-35B STOVL Joint Strike Fighters;
4 x Maritime Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft/helicopters/UAV’s
6 x Merlin HM helicopters
Total = 28 – 34

Surge TAG (“Wartime”)

36 x Harrier GR9 or F-35B STOVL Joint Strike Fighters;
4 x Maritime Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft/helicopters/UAV’s
Total = 40

Forward Aviation Support Ship (ASS) or Amphibious Helicopter Platform (LPH) [speculative]
18 x Medium lift transport helicopters (Merlin HC.3 / FRC);
6 x Heavy lift transport helicopters (Chinook HC.2 / FRC);
6 x WAH-64 attack helicopters;
4 x Maritime Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft/helicopters/UAV’s
Total = 34

This was the plan, reported widely on Navy Matters well before 2008. Even when 150 planes were still envisaged, it was expected not to have them all always at sea.
That’s a costly show of power than only the US in the world can afford on a continuous base.

No, it is not a module in itself, but some of the currently envisaged modules are going to be built differently and the ship will be considerably heavier as well.
PA2 was expected to be over 70.000 tons. CVF, even modified, won’t change THAT much, (PA2, after all, planned STEAM cats and Sylver Aster 15 missile system too, and that’s all weight) but quite some things will change, there’s no doubt on this.

This was the plan for PA2:

It’s expected (late 2006) that PA2/CVF FR will carry a 40 aircraft air group comprising up to 32 Rafale combat aircraft, plus Hawkeye surveillance aircraft and NH90 helicopters. T

The ship will be fitted with two American manufactured C13-2 steam catapults – 90 metres long (nominal power stroke of 309.7 feet) and able to launch aircraft at over 150 knots. The catapults will be powered by an auxiliary steam generating plant; the launch rate will be one one aircraft every 30 seconds – an Alpha Strike of 24 aircraft in 12 minutes. In order to land returning aircraft, the ship will also have a mark 7 Mod 4 3-wire arresting gear and barricade.

The one line i evidenced is interesting because probably the UK carrier will have a similar Sortie Rate Generation as well, perhaps a bit higher thanks to the more effective cats, but most likely on those levels anyway.

This image is not the best ever, but it shows a bit of the difference we can expect to see from the CVF we were by now used to know to the one that will actually be.

Thanks as always to Richard’s Beedall Navy Matters.

i work on AS90 support, we are still awaiting the official number to be retained

Let us know then, please! I will be grateful if you do.

Mine was a supposition based on the 35% figure and the little i know about the actual, current number of operational formations and their force.

I’m very impatient to clear the muddle and see a complete and understandable image of what the UK’s defence will REALLY look like.

Also, by the way, days ago one Sandown decommissioned in Faslane, bringing the MCM1 squadron (and Sandown class) down to 7.

Expect a Hunt to bow out possibly even before the week ends to bring the Hunt/MCM2 to 7 as well.

Waddington will become quiter now, the Sentinal R.1 has been chopped (very odd decission) and the Nimrod R.1 to go next year, with flying training to centre at Valley could Leeming go aswel?

Also can you see both Odiham and Benson surviving?

Yeah, Waddington remains home JUST to the Sentry, the incoming Rivet Joints, the Reapers (once they’ll be back home from mission) and the Shadow R1.
A lot quieter. 😀

RAF Benson was reported safe cause of the Puma survival, but only to 2012 there’s some certainty.
Since Chinooks are likely to stay at Odhiam and Merlins move to the Navy and possibly relocate, Benson may still close soon enough and the Puma move out to another base. (reach the 5 AAC regiment’s own Pumas in Aldergrove, even…?)

I think RAF Leeming is safe. Both Valley and Leeming probably will remain.

Lyneham reported to be first choice to house troops returning from Germany when it closes.
Wittering and Kinloss are also options.