No doubts you read the Guardian at all. You couldn’t read anything else.

37 billions you don’t have…? UK GDP for the World Bank, for the CIA and International Monetary Fund both is ranked 6th, with a 2009 GDP indicated from 2.174.000 to 2.184.000 Billions USD.
Total Government Spending is nearly 800 billions a year.

37 billions in ten years overspend is massive in a way, but it still is a paltry 3.7 billions a year against a ringfenced 8 billions-and-growing a year International Aid Budget, a 189 billions a year-and growing on Social Protection, 119 billions a year for NHS, over 88 for education, 23 for transports, 10 for European Union nonsense, and a “other” figure that covers who the hell knows what and totals over 70 billions a year. Plus, of course, the debt interests as well, plus other 23 billions on agricolture and many other massive voices of expenditure.

Greece, that for you is so broken, did not cut its armed forces like the UK is doing. Greece is actually still planning all its 60 Typhoons at some points (that add to hundreds of F16s), a couple of FREMM frigates turned to Air Defence role, and tons of other kit to buy soon.

Ireland does not matter whatsoever in the subject. Compare Ireland and Greece or Ireland and UK is a heresy. Ireland is economically weak from ages, and not because of military spending. Probably its greatest fortune would have been to stay part of the United Kingdom as a whole, it would have made it less of a car wreck.

Those cuts are just fantasy.

Hope so. But on 22 October, if it is not fantasy, what happens…? I fear the fantasy is thinking that the cuts won’t come.

“ops! Didn’t thought they would do it for real!”

self destructive run? Not sure i’m with you there?

Because you are one of the optimists who believe they will continue to live to the standars of a great international power forever, while simultaneously destroying their international power status.
The long term impact of becoming irrilevant, even if a war does not come fast to screw with the SDSR and make people cry and regret decisions taken without thinking (it wouldn’t be the first time, since it happened both after the SDR of the 1981 and, in a way, with the one of 1998 too) will inexorably be felt. Either you are a world power, or you are not.
Also, the Guardian is a very active journal that claims for the UK to help shape a better world. Admirable. It fails to realize that a less relevant UK will be able to do a lot less for shaping the world’s route than it does now.
Like it or not, military might has a large value in how the NATO sees a nation, how the UN sees a nation, how the USA see a nation, how India sees a nation, how everyone sees a nation.

As to the damage to the 35 billions-a-year defence industry and its hundred thousands workers, plus the thousands of airmen and soldiers and sailors who will lose their job (yes, being a soldier IS a job), we don’t even get started!
The impact thousands and thousands new jobless will have on Welfare and economy as a whole? Better not to think too much about it!

As to the damages to british aerospace industry caused by, for example, dropping to so low a profile into the F35 programme, we don’t even start listing it!
I remind you that Spain already requested to get the current workshare of British industry in aerospace work like the wings for the A400 and, subsequently, of the civilian airliners A350 as well.
How much of the workshare of UK industry in the F35 will be lost…? Save for Rolls Royce, the only one pretty much irreplaceable, the other industries may well lose their share entirely or almost entirely, because that’s the way this kind of programmes and markets work like.

Last, we will one day read another Guardian article crying that troops do not have the kit they need.
All over again, once more.

A british men at the eve of the Second World War, when the Uk was disarming at the dream of “forever peace”, derisively attacked with the “There’s no threats against us” argument, answered in the smartest possible way ever:

“There’s no threats because we are strong. The moment we’ll be weak, threats will arise.

But of course, you read the Guardian and you’ll probably be all too happy to claim that International Aid can’t be cut, that there’s no threats, that the military is a waste and has no political relevance in the importance of a country on the international stage, scrap Trident and fund schools, nuclear is evil and all this kind of things, included “defence industry is a mere 2% of GDP and 300.000 workers, we can do without that”.
Never heard a valid argumentation of just WHY.

As to who you are and what you do, personally, i couldn’t care less, sorry if i’m brutally sincere. You obviously can’t know it, but i have my job of computer technician AND i’m facing my second year of university after covering all my exames in perfect timing and remarkably good marks. So, please, don’t treat me like you were so superior. I think i’m doing well for my 21 years age, thank you.

Also, will someone explain me what the Uk is gonna do with 2 billions worth of nearly disarmed Clyde OPVs…???? Fill all the oceans of the world with irrilevant ships that would have trouble taking on a pirate boat if the pirate instead of surrendering fires a RPG7 against the ship and wrecks half of it?

Please tell me it isn’t what the NSC is thinking to do.

And the short term saving is NONE: if it is true that the shipyard is contracted to do a few billions worth of work, ensured for a few years, which means the carrier or a bunch of laughable and mostly disarmed patrol vessels, the amount of money that, between penalties and cost for the new ships, would be spent would equal the cost of PoW.

As to the cost of crewing, refuelling and sustaining operations of a fleet of small OPVs that would be as useful against a medium-sized enemy (i don’t even dare saying Iran, because Iran has enough weaponry to sunk a fleet of Clyde-style OPVs ten times over) as having nothing, i have to express very, very, very serious doubts.

Also, what would the knock-on effects be in the long term navy plans? The death of Type 26 and any high-end platform…? Most likely.
If we want the UK to have a ridiculous fleet of powerless OPVs less armed than ex-URSS minesweepers, then a gap in capability up to the Type 45 and a massive mothballed carrier with no planes, then go ahead.

Gods. This SDSR becomes more and more demented with every minute that passes.

While it is not ideal would you accept that 1 CVF, retaining all the amphibious assault ships, agreeing to replace Ocean in 2018 with an off the shelf LDH, 6 Type 45, 7 Astute’s, 6 Type 26, 4 C2 versions of the Type 26 and 10 3,000 – 4,000 tonne light frigates, 8 minesweepers, a single air group of F-35B, 4 Merlin’s in MASC configuration, plus some additional ships in the RFA is actually a fairly balanced fleet and likely the best we can realistically hope for at present?

I’d totally accept. (more Type 26 and less light frigates however i’d ask)
Problem is, it will NEVER happen because math rules it out.

The RN has a “nuclear only” policy on submarines from the selling off of the Upholder class to Canada in fact. And arguably the navy does not need more submarines. (Explanation: a total of 10 SSNs was the requirement, but if the 7 Astutes are safe as it seems, you can bet that in the current climate the admirals are happy like hell. Hell, even i am! The priorities are others)

Carriers. Building only one is absurd for many reasons:
1) it would cost almost as much as two hulls, but it would be only one. (cost would inexorably rise in case of cancellation of second hull: if the second hull is not “cancelled” but replaced with “alternative platforms” to give industry the workshare contracted for there’s no saving. What’s the point of building “something else” and save nothing????? Then be it PoW, which in time will cover the loss of HMS Ocean at least a bit!)
2) It would be often unavailable
3) It still requires 40 active F35B (or C, but it is damn unlikely). If the justification for building a single carrier is the airgroup, i can’t understand why the simplest idea (AKA: a single complete airgroup moving from a carrier to another depending on needs and hull availability) is not taken. The second carrier can work as LPH most of the time, and it is perfectly justified.
Since the UK is on the F35 boat anyway, i don’t see why this option can’t be taken. What, are they ashamed of having a carrier without assigned airplanes? I doubt it, since they have allowed HMS Illustrious to borrow desperately US, spanish and italian Harriers to park on its deck in exercise and retain experience while the RAF jealously barred the Navy from deploying planes at sea.

My best shot at the F35 trouble is buying 70 airframes. Order halved as everyone seems to want.
2 Naval Air Service Squadrons (so QE gets its bloody planes and does not replay the blushing Lusty going around with empty hangar because of RAF childish behaviour) and two RAF squadrons (One of which HAS TO BE ABSOLUTELY the 617° for obvious reasons :D) plus common, RAF-managed OCU and OEU.
They can use Lossiemouth as base, and make Scotland happy as well.

As to frigates, men!
France gets 11 FREMM, Italy 10 FREMM. Even Germany and Spain have got a fair share of very-high end ships.
The UK arguably needs and should have more frigates than all of these nations.
8 High-End Type 26 to replace the 13 Type 23 is the bare minimum i can envisage unless the navy has to really vanish!
Remember that the Type 26 is gonna inherit the:
1) Main Gun (to go through Bae for a 10 million change to 155/39 AS90 gun)
2) Secondary guns
3) Radars
4) Sonars
5) CAMM
6) Stingray
7) Harpoon
From already paid, already existing Type 23 going out of service.

Men, i can’t see a way to make it any less expensive than so, since the weapon system would pretty much be already paid.

If you want something cheaper still, there’s Offshore Raiding Crafts, goddamit.
If a nation needs a navy, and the UK bloody needs one, it has to pay at least a little bit to keep the navy alive!

I think you are being hopelessly over-optimistic and i’ll warn you.

My fear is that Cameron would rather cut the carriers than lose so many frigates that the RN has to draw away from a standing commitment.
The truth is that new ships would not be in sight anyway.

And an unsong truth is also that the RN is actually having serious troubles deploying regularly to all standing commitments as it is now: it first was in 2008 that for some months the RN was unable to find a vessel that could be sent in mission, and there were gaps in coverage.

we are now watching a sea blind Tory Prime Minister obsessed with Afghanistan hell bent on destroying Britains expeditionary warfare capability and Shipbuilding.

Worst part? He won’t stop with the Navy and shipbuilding either.

RAF is in for the massacre too.

And later even the army.

A full out massacre.

@Swerve

Perfectly correct. The number of Tomahawks should obviously match as closely as possible the numbers of launching tubes that are acquired and fitted. I kept the numbers low because of the notorious difficulties in getting money for the Navy’s requirement. It is not a byble.
I once read a “Cost-Effective Defence” report from RUSI that advocated a buy of 1000 Tomahawk missiles (obviously envisaging a far broader usage of them and a sharp reduction in RAF, but unfortunately also apparently calling for a serious reduction of the Navy. Wonder how that one “expert” was planning to launch the missiles…) !!!

As to Albion and Bulwark, i read somewhere the navy planned to start thinking about their replacement in 2021 or 2022. Probably they considered: A) the years needed before the project is approved B) the years needed to get the money and C) the years to build the new ships. So probably the final figure would be 30 years all the same if not more! XD
But yours is a very correct observation. My 2020 vision effectively goes past even 2020! 😀

Same goes for the Type 26. First one is due in 2021, i think… and then one a year following the decommissioning of the Type 23 in the schedule. I’d follow the same exact plan for them, while granting greater urgency to build 6 or so “C2” cheaper and simpler ships to keep numbers up as the Type 22 go.
Reality is that, pretty easily, the RN will get only the Type 26 in the end, aim for 12 of them and get hopefully 10 or so, not all of them fully armed.
In particular if the Type 22 are lost for real and the navy is forced for years to do with (hopefully) 13 frigates.
Can we realistically see the RN getting money to SIZE UP…?

I’d like to believe it. But i can’t. 🙁

@nocutstoraf

You teased me into giving you all an insight of my vision of a cuts-burdened but still balanced and capable Great Britain military.
Of course, it is merely speculation.

Call it “My Target-2020 Strategic Defence Review” 😀

Introduction: this will sadly never happen. But, for improving my mood a little bit, i’ll explain my vision of balanced british forces after the cuts, with 2020 in sight.

Navy:

Close Devonport is politically unfeasible in my mind, so the base would remain. Militarily, such a reduced navy could do with Portsmouth and Faslane alone, (even if it wouldn’t be strategically wise to have all eggs in one basket) but personally i think the impact on Plymouth would be too damaging.

-HMS Ocean remains until 2018. Goes out without replacement (for the moment)

-HMS Albion and Bulwark remain. In 2021, when it’ll be time to replace them, 3 LHDs should be built, taking into account the need to resolve the problem of the missing Ocean. Cost of replacement, with design Off-the-Shelf: 1.5 billions for all 3. (roughly, of course)

-CVFs both built to same standard. PoW working both to relief QE in Carrier Strike role when she’s out and to do Ocean’s work.

-8 Type 26, with sonar and weaponry migrated from Type 23 (down from 10), as high end platforms, fitted with CAMM+8/12 MK41 cells for TacTom missiles. Possible cost? 400 millions x 8 + 124 millions design = 3,3 billions. Role: anti-submarine chase with sonar and torpedoes migrated from Type 23, plus support of land ops with TacTom and 155/39 MTF gun.

– Tactical Tomahawk stock doubled with 65 more missiles acquired, to 130 missiles available. Expense possibly from 30 to 60 millions USD. Half for the Astutes, the others for Type 26.

-6 cheaper frigates (down from 8) to cover the original C2 requirement. Same gun of the Type 26, but no towed sonar and no Tomahawk. Harpoon, light guns and most of the CAMM missiles for the new frigates will come from Type 22 and 23: 17 sets available, to equip all the Type 26, the C2 and a couple of the Type 45 as well.

-6 Type 45 destroyers. All fitted with CEC for cooperative engagements in AD role. Armed with Phalanx taken from Type 42. A couple of them armed with Stingray and Harpoons coming from dismissed frigates, at least a couple more fitted with 8/12 MK41 cells in the additional reserved space, with a buy of an handful of SM3 missiles for anti-ballistic coverage within NATO and for hasty anti-satellite role was it ever needed.

– 3 new fleet tankers acquired at roughly 540 millions to add to the Waves (down from an envisaged 6 because of smaller fleet size).

-2 Fort Class Solid resupply ships updated and refitted, 1 dedicated CVF support ship to be acquired.

-Argus and Diligence replaced in time with newer civilian-built container ships modified to keep costs down.

-HMS Endurance replaced with buy of a newer civilian Icebreaker from Norway.

-Minesweepers reduced to the sole Hunt class, to later be replaced with 10 C3 that will cover the roles of: Minesweepers, Ocen Survey, OPVs and fishery protection. Ocean Survey roles not integral to Navy activities to be funded by other departments.

-7 Astutes

– Trident replacement postponed by synchronizing CASD patrols with the French navy, allowing Vanguard to last longer so to fully exploit commonality of timeline with US Ohio replacement. 3 Subs built, CASD ensured by collaboration with the French.

– PACSCAT landing craft to replace LCU Mk10

RAF

-Half of Tornado fleet scrapped immediately, the rest within 2020 at the latest. Typhoon to be integrated with ALARM, RAPTOR recce pod and Storm Shadow and Brimstone with a more aggressive timeline to allow earlier Tornado replacement without too much gap in capability.

-Harrier remains to allow a smooth passage to F35B

-F35B buy halved to 70 or so airframes. Target is to create 4 Front Line squadrons of 12 airplanes each, plus 10 in the OCU and 4 OEU.
800 and 801 NAS, 617° (can’t lose such an historic squadron, now, can we…????) and 4° RAF. RAF to posses also OCU and OEU units for F35.
Base: RAF Lossiemouth and possibly RAF Marham in support.

-Typhoon force of 5 frontline squadrons of 16 machines each, plus 4 (+1 reserve) based in the Falklands. Tranche 3B scrapped.
Bases: RAF Coningsby (two squadrons + OCU) and RAF Leuchars (3 Squadrons)

-60 Chinooks (which means current order scaled down to 12 from 22) based in RAF Odiham.

-22 A400M pooled with France.

-8 C17 (the 8th is a long wish of the RAF, and the need for it certainly exists)

-14 air tankers, pooled with the French

-7 E3D Sentry pooled with the French Sentry for mainteinance (collaboration with NATO AEW force too?)

-9 Nimrods moved to Waddington, closure of RAF Kinloss. Cancellation of the 1-billion order for Rivet Joint planes: despite ISTAR and Intelligence being in great request, at the moment the Nimrod is fitted with powerful enough equipment to cover that role as well.
When funding is available, the 3 Nimrod MRA4 used for development could be equipped with more specialistic intelligence equipment, the SHAMAN suite, making them a dedicated and highly effective platform. (designation Nimrod R.2?)

-Project Scavenger to continue with production of 10 Mantis MALE drones and 8 Zephyr drones for Communications Relying and Long-Persistent observation. Both systems to be given to 39 Squadron RAF (current user of the 3 Reapers hard worked in Afghanistan) and located in Waddington.

Bases: C17 and A400 and air tankers concentrated at Brize Norton, with closure of Lineham.
Chinook to be based at Odhiam, RAF Benson to close with Merlins going to the Marines and the Puma scrapped.
RAF Waddington to take E3D Sentry, Sentinel, the drones and Nimrod.
RAF Aldergrove? Currently hosts Puma and a bunch of Defender planes. Might become useless soon, but it is the last RAF base in Ireland, and this might make closure sorta difficult.

Army Air Corps and Commando Helicopter Force

-fusion of the two services in the Joint Helicopter Force

-Apache helicopter squadrons downsized to 7 airframes each (down from 8) to allow creation of a 7th squadron while keeping exactly the same number of choppers and mostly the same personnel as well. The 7th group created would become a center of excellence for use of Apaches on board of ships and practically replace the current Marines Attack Squadron of Lynx TOW.

-22 Lynx MK9A to form the 1 Regiment (squadrons 652 and 661)

-2th Training Regiment to retain its role in training crews for Lynx and Apache. Bring into this regiment the current NAVY OCU for the navy Lynx as well.

-The squadrons of Lynx in the 3,4 and 9th Attack Regiment replaced by Lynx Wildcat Army version.

-5 Regiment in Aldergrove, losing the Puma, might well be scrapped and the base closed.

-7 Regiment scrapped with the loss of Gazelle and closure of Netheravon

-Merlin HC3 and HC3A handed to the navy, NAVALIZED by Agusta Westland and forming a couple of Squadrons/Regiments (depending on what name system is chosen with the fusion of the two services) to replace the Sea King HC4.

-Ideally, a small fleet of NH90 (utility version but with navalized features) should be acquired to cover Utility role forming a further two 10-choppers groups, but this would be subject to budget.

-Merlin HM2 programme to go along as planned. The 8 airframes not upgraded should be used for MASC role and fitted out with Cerberus.

-Merlin HM2 in Culdrose, Merlin HC3, eventual NH90 and Lynx in Yeonvilton. Close several of the bases of the AAC, starting from those in Germany.

-Make Joint Training as much as possible with Lynx choppers.

Total Force:

28 Merlin HC3/3A (HM3 after navalization?) in two squadrons (845, 846)
28 Navy Wildcat (815 sqn)
34 Army Wildcat (a squadron in each of the three Attack Regiments)
22 Lynx MK9A (all in 1 regiment)
67 Apache (6 squadrons in 3 Attack Regiments plus a “dedicated” squadron for more regular use on ships so that experience is seriously developed and maintained)
30 Merlin HM2 (2-3 Squadrons)
8 Merlin MASC (1 squadron for use on Carriers plus)

Possible new buy at some point of NH90 for Utility Role (unofficially, but effectively Puma replacement)

Bases: Yeonvilton, Culdrose, Wattisham and eventual others, but ideally with closure of AAC bases in Germany, in Aldergrove, in Bury St Edmunds and Dishforth.
Middle Wallop is the current training base, and probably is more cost effective to maintain it that move it all.

Army
The most difficult part. However, I’ll try listing some.

Starting from Artillery:

39th Regiment with GMLRS remains

4 x Regiments AS90 (cut one)

3 x L118 regiments (29 Commando, 7 Parachute RHA and 40 RA) to stay untouched

14th Regiment for training obviously remains

Cut HVM and Rapier regiments, retain the AD experience in TA regiments. At the moment there’s no air threats.

5th Regiment STA and Special Ops remains

With the entry in service of the 54 ordered Watchkeeper, the RA will form 9 squadrons each with 6 drones. Dunno if they will be all part of a regiment or how they are going to be listed.

CAMM missiles would appear in batteries of 6 truck/launchers plus support vehicles and 1 x Giraffe radar each. They will enter the RA in 2018 and be organized subsequently. Every Brigade will need a battery.

A dedicated C-RAM RA Regiment seems a sensible investment as well, since it is most likely to be the most highly demanded kind of air defence in the near future.
A number of Centurion Phalanx-derived systems might be the first kit the regiment gets. Ideally, something more easily deployable should follow.
Fire Shadow will be a battlewinning capability in both COIN and High End Warfare. A regiment should get this new weapon system.

TA Artillery:

1 x Observation Post Regiment
1 x STA/MLRS Regiment
1 x Unmanned Air Vehicle/General Support Regiment
1 x Ground Based Air Defence Regiment (HVM)
3 x Close Support Regiments (105 mm Light Gun)

Formation of a Regiment that takes on Rapier appears necessary, possibly modifying this current structure to modify a formation already existent.

-20Th Armoured Brigade closed.

-7Th Armoured Brigade enlarged with the addition of a third Battalion of Armoured Infantry (from the 20th). Vehicles put in long term storage.

-16th Air Assault Brigade stays untouched as the Army’s own High Readiness unit.

-Mechanized Brigades. Might be necessary to cut down from 3 to 2. Mastiff and Rigdback to be roled into these brigades in place of Saxon. FRES SV delayed for the future as we make best possible use of the vehicles taken by UORs. Some more Mastiff might become necessary to cover all the need.

-Light Role Brigades: the 19th Light Brigade should become a sort of mini-Mechanized brigade mounted on the new bought Warthog vehicles while the Viking stays with the Marines, so that this UORs is used at its maximum even after Afghanistan, too.

-52° Infantry and Gurkha brigades stay roughly as they are.

-A number of infantry battalions will be lost. I don’t exactly know how many.

-The Talisman system should equip a Royal Engineers formation, and be kept to be the point of excellence in EOD and anti-IED role.

Roughly, the army would look like this, roughly:

3 Tank Regiments (down from 5)

3 or 4 Formation Reconnaissance Regiments should stay. One for every Armoured and Mechanized brigades. The Light Brigades will merely get a platoon of FRES SV Scouts each instead. (down from 5 RECCE formations)

6 Armoured Infantry Battalions

4 or 6 Mechanized Infantry Battalions

12 or so Light Role infantry battalions plus 2 Gurkha

A total of 26 Infantry Battalions (+ TA) down from current 36, with 4 Commando Battalions from the Navy. Possibly, each Battalion should increase from 690 to 750 soldiers, however (possibly reducing the TA regiment’s size as a consequence).

-FIST Kit was thought to be acquired in 35.000 suites: this will go down to 22.500.

-LPPV Ocelot will become the vehicle of choice for the protection of fire teams of the Light Role Battalions deployed abroad. Jackal will replace all Land Rovers Weapon Mount.

-the number of Warrior IFV upgunned and upgraded will go down from 449 to 312 or so.

-active Challenger II tanks will go down to 174.

-FRES SV would be needed for 3 RECCE Regiments and 4 RECCE Squadrons, so an active force of 192 FRES Scout, 64 Striker-replacement/FRES Antitank, 91 FRES SV Protected Mobility, 20 or so FRES SV recovery, 20 FRES SV ambulance, a number of mobile command posts. Some more FRES SV protected mobility will be needed to replace Spartan in the Armoured and Mechanized brigades as well, were some are used, and to replace the old 432 as well, particularly in the mortar carrier role. Ideally, a FRES SV hull fitted with an AMOS turret would be an awesome capability for said formations.

-With the 155/39 becoming the navy caliber as well, the stocks of ammunitions will go down to 105 and 155 mm NATO alone plus 227 mm GMLRS rockets. The “Bang” type of GMLRS should be procured, with tri-mode unitary warhead and range of up to 103 km. Possible use of it could be in the Navy as well.

-A long term programme to replace L118 was thought to begin in 2020 or so, and the M777 is more than likely to be the winner, if something even lighter does not come out for that date.

Immediate cuts:

Base closures (RAF Lossiemouth [temporary until F35 arrives], RAF Kinloss, RAF Lineham and RAF Benson and others, included possibly RAF Aldergrove)

Tornado fleet halved and then completely retired earlier

Tranche 3B Typhoon not acquired

Type 22 B3 retired

Type 42 retired

Sandown class minesweepers retired

Rivet Joint order cancelled

Air tankers and A400 poled with French

E3D Sentry capability pooled with France and NATO similar fleets for reduced running cost

Puma retirement (and upgrade cancelled)

Gazelle retirement

HVM and Rapier retirement (a Regiment of each in TA, part of the weapons in storage)

Cut of 20th Armoured Brigade and subsequent cut in personnel and mothballing of armor

C130K to go as soon as A400 starts entering service

C130J retired compatibly with needs of abroad ops subsequently

Temporary restricted use of HMS Albion and Bulwark: alternate them with one in reserve and the other in use if necessary.

Reduce usage of Bay class as well, but retain them. Possibly mothball temporarily a second ship if necessary.

Reduced Vanguard activity: coordinate patrols with the French will require 50% less patrols a year and allow considerable savings and also allow the Vanguard to survive longer and postpone replacement while maintaining a CASD nuclear umbrella, albeit collaborative.