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Liger30

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Viewing 15 posts - 541 through 555 (of 902 total)
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  • in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2403988
    Liger30
    Participant

    Well then. I just hope you are right. It is all scaremongering. I don’t really manage to believe it, but i certainly hope it is so.

    As to having nukes on cruise missiles, yes, a similar scenario may be a boost to the Astutes, as i’m pretty sure that the current build Astutes couldn’t be easily cleared out for carrying nukes without modifications to the weapon storage compartment. People is very touchy about nukes, obviously.

    It may be a chance to get a few more Astutes, possibly fitted with an additional module with a dozen or so VLS tubes for Tomahawk-class cruise missiles. (BAe already proposed that long ago)

    Again, as i stated more than once, a nuke cruise missile though could NOT be designed by the UK simply fitting a nuke on a TacTom. The US wouldn’t permit such a move.
    The UK would need to design a whole new sub-launched cruise missile, since no one in the world is mad enough to allow its conventional cruise missile to serve in another nation armed with a nuke.

    The new missile will have to be clearly recognizable, so that a (example) Tomahawk being launched can’t be mistaken for a nuke launch.
    And ideally, anyway, the target should be to develop a little more ambitious missile, with far greater reach and at the very least supersonic speed. Or better hypersonic, like the latest model of BramHos being developed in Russia/India.

    in reply to: CVF Construction #2027163
    Liger30
    Participant

    Sensible.
    But then again, it is no cuts then. T3B is no real cuts since it is not even contracted for and anyway it would be years away still in any case. And there’s likely no way to recede from current contracts for the planes the RAF is receiving (thanks god!!!).
    At the most, they can… mothball more T1 as reserve planes and have less active airframes, i guess. Reduce flying hours or something. I don’t see other ways to achieve relevant savings over Typhoon at the moment, sincerely.

    in reply to: CVF Construction #2027173
    Liger30
    Participant

    Yeah, but can we assume the SDSR doesn’t accept reducing even more the number of frontline Typhoons squadrons and possibly their numeric consistence to cut on total numbers of airframes?
    I’d like to say it is impossible. But i fear we can’t assume so with that much confidence. I don’t think Typhoon cuts are probable (save for the certain cancellation of T3B) in the amounts suggested by the press, but if Oman was to be happy with buying RAF standard T1 planes, we could see 24 Typhoons leaving the RAF for Oman, for example.

    An hope against this scenario is offered by the fact that apparently there’s a gentlemen agreement with the Eurofighter consortium on trying to assure that the T3B planes that the UK does not buy are compensated by export orders.
    Thus, selling T1s would not fullfil that commitment, unless the UK buys part of the T3B to replace the planes it sells.
    This last case should allow short term savings more immediate than simply cancelling an order that, at the end, is merely an intention: there’s no effective contract in place for T3B planes, thus no money really committed to them.

    If it was possible to sell abroad some of the T1, there would instead be a consistent immediate saving, ideally with new buy in future years of newer, more modern airframes of the T3B. Which wouldn’t be that bad at all for the RAF.

    Ultimately, though, we’ll probably know only in October.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2404214
    Liger30
    Participant

    Your optimism is admirable to say the very least.
    The 6th vessel has had merely a fraction of its cost financed with a first batch of long-lead items being acquired, nothing more. The 7th has got not even a penny allocated to it, and it has been hinted at with less and less frequency.

    The only ones that apparently still believe in a 8 strong fleet of Astutes are Barrow’s workers, and you.
    I WISH it was possible.

    But when you are about to cut thousands of servicemen and possibly scrap new ships like HMS Albion to save an handful of millions a year in running costs, the thought of having over 2 billions to spend to build two more SSNs is, unfortunately, laughable to say the least.

    Believe me, i wish the Astutes were 8. But i fear it is simply impossible.

    in reply to: CVF Construction #2027189
    Liger30
    Participant

    Don’t live in a happy world of light and colors where nothing bad ever happens either.

    October’s announcements are likely to shock us all. Deeply.

    in reply to: CVF Construction #2027203
    Liger30
    Participant

    Unfortunately, i have to agree. The number of F35B will further be cut, regardless of the fact that 138 really are needed, since the F35B is going to be not just the carrier’s power, but the whole UK strike fleet, replacing Tornado and Harrier as well.
    Hopefully, though, at least around 80 will still be bought. 60 are seriously too few to build up an acceptable front line strenght.

    Considering the eventual cuts to bring Typhoons to as few as 107 airframes, we have a RAF with well less than 200 combat planes available.
    Is UK really ready for such a drastical reduction of its power…?
    I don’t see a safe future ahead, for no one. I hope economic considerations, as important as they are, don’t take too much of a tool on defence needs.

    Was it for me, defence, seen its unique relevance and already difficult position, would be ringfenced entirely from cuts.
    Not from efficiency and savings, but cuts in frontline strenght would have been a no-no if it was for me.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2404472
    Liger30
    Participant

    Navy News gives its own analysis of the Press reports about Navy and Marines related possible cuts in an article on page 31.
    http://content.yudu.com/A1owcf/navynewssept10/resources/index.htm?referrerUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.navynews.co.uk%2F
    The points made are all good and i think we can all agree to them. Still, my fear is that the people shaping the SDSR may not be just as wise.

    Anyway, a bit of a good news i read into another article is that near the end of this month HMS Dauntless should fire the Sea Viper missile as last part of the PAAMS testing.
    As to Daring, unfortunate tug accident allowing it, in the autumn it is expected to show off itself in joint training in the US.

    I hope the Navy makes a great ruckus about the firing of Sea Viper: i’m quite sick to read dumb people laughing of the Type 45 as the “destroyer without working missiles”.
    Sure, if Phalanx guns could be finally installed too, and fast, the fame of the Type 45 would improve largely. It would be about damn time, sincerely.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2404741
    Liger30
    Participant

    Evacuation of staff by means of special forces intervention in the case, deemed “likely” that the pakistan military exploits the flood disaster to take power over the nation.
    I see the relation alright.

    Possibly, it could be even WORSE than the Telegraph scenario considering:
    A) Pakistan has nukes
    B) Pakistan is full of taliban groups and has been fighting in the northern vallies against a taliban invasion that at one point was reported being 50 miles away from a nuclear site
    C) Pakistan has obvious Islamic extremism sympathies
    D) NATO is higly dependent on Pakistan as logistic hub for its forces in Afghanistan
    F) India is in Cold War state with Pakistan and undoubtedly would be “unnerved” to say the very least to see such events happen in the region

    I find that my point is HIGHLY relevant. If you accuse me not to be able to see in the future, of course you are right.
    But i find it is always suicidal not to think very carefully about the situation on the ground.

    And your point about future scenarios predicted that never happened is an empty point. It is blatantly obvious that most attempts to predict the future fail. It does not mean we shouldn’t try to make our minds for the possible twists of tomorrow.

    Because history is even more full with scenarios which weren’t thought, but happened.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2405001
    Liger30
    Participant

    Take it as an exaggeration about the overthrowing of the government… but it is a realistic scenario still, that reminds me of Sierra Leone in some ways.

    Don’t we look too much at the finger and not to the Moon behind it. The article gives a suggestion, maybe exaggerated in some parts, but a good one.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2405034
    Liger30
    Participant

    I hate to break this to you, but if you are fighting the Pakistan Armed Forces, technically that means you are at war with Pakistan. Please let me know if I missed something out here. Supplying troops in Afghanistan would be the LAST of your worries. Just below full scale conventional war with one of the largest militaries in the world, hostile population and possible nuclear war.

    Other then that, see no problem with Pakistani Rangers letting the supply convoys through.

    The above story probably explains why no one takes The Torygraph seriously anymore….

    http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?231517

    I warmly invite you to read this article i found this morning, from Pakistani press, before you laugh of the “Torygraph”.

    And i also remind you how everyone laughed when in the 1981 diplomatic sources warned the Uk that the Argentine junta was likely to invade the Falklands.

    Foreign policy is not easy. Future is hard to tell. And it is never laughable.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2405038
    Liger30
    Participant

    I particularly liked the Uganda scenario – it seems to be right out of the colonial power hand book – prop up a African government, buy all their food and minerals cheap, when they wobble, send in a show of power followed by a nice military coup and everyone goes home for tea (apart from the previous government who all end up shot or in exile in Cuba). As far I can tell the author is stuck in the 1960’s 😀 – still it is interesting in terms of the range of operations and how ready the UK is for them.

    Not really. It is very realistic, actually.
    Such rare minerals, like it or not, are becoming strategical relevant resources that are indispensable to build mostly any kind of electronic device from mobile phones to supercomputers.

    If people wants to continue having fancy phones and satellite pay TV, and if they want to have a job in the future producting electronics, the nation will have to make sure it can get a share of the natural resources.

    Want another possible scenario of war that may become serious enough NATO has to intervene? Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea are stepping up their military and doing exercise because they are at loggerheads over the Nile’s waters.
    Regardless of a years old agreement, Eritrea and other nations are planning to build tens of damns on the Nile, and Egypt is getting worried and angry like Hell. If diplomacy fails (and currently it seems the talks are going the wrong way), in a few years time they may begin firing at each other. It is a real scenario, more realistic and more urgent than those of the Telegraph.
    Also, the coup in Pakistan is very serious a possibility: i linked the article i found this morning from the pakistani press stating that the risk of a coup is very high, and it is so RIGHT NOW, not 5 years in the future.
    And there could be many more scenarios, all pretty likely despite the easy laugh of people, that could be listed out.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2405048
    Liger30
    Participant

    It is not “the West goes to war with Pakistan”, it is a very real scenario in which the powerful pro-islamic and heavily taliban-sympathetic army takes control of the state.

    Pakistan is a NUCLEAR nation. India is in a state of Cold War with it. NATO has troops in Afghanistan, heavily dependent from supply convoys moving across Pakistan. The result of such a situation happening would be potentially disasterous, and ignoring how likely it is would be suicidal.
    It is quite serious, and the evacuation of british people from Pakistan would be merely the first and easier part of the events in such a scenario. Good to know that an eye is open on that.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2405165
    Liger30
    Participant

    Surely from over 5000 meters. Altitude grants longer reach for the bomb. I don’t know the top ceiling though. I’d say that yes, they can be launched definitely from high altitude though.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2405172
    Liger30
    Participant

    http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?231517
    Now, now. Wouldn’t this be a major disaster considering the military might of Pakistan, the situation in Afghanistan and the rivalry with India and the fact Pakistan is a major nuclear power…?

    Yet, it is such a real risk! This is one of many, so many things that can go suddenly wrong and require military might in place, rapidly and decisively.
    I hope that, at the margin of the budget-robbing, some actual strategy thinking is taking place in the SDSR, with some actual considerations in it.

    in reply to: CVF Construction #2027349
    Liger30
    Participant

    Just to be controversial – but as far as I am concerned having nuclear weapons is good but it does not matter if you need to launch 10 nuclear missiles to score one guaranteed hit or 2, the value is in possessing them. Therefore I much rather have less capable nuclear deterrent and have the money pumped into conventional forces, quite frankly the RN is too small and personally I feel a lot happier if they used the $5 billion of the $20 billion for Trident replacement, moved away from a continuous deterrent, to ensure the two CVF’s are built and they can field two whole air wings

    Me too, to a degree. But just because the government once more betrayed the armed forces and forced an “Or this or that” situation upon the services.

    Trident SHOULD NOT and WAS NOT expected to be paid by the defence budget, as it is a POLITICAL instrument for the nation more than it is a weapon.

    That’s why normally the nuke budget is SEPARATED from the defence budget (USA docet) and why it was expected to be separated in the UK as well.
    The truth is that the government does not want to give in the privileges and advantages that come with Trident, but don’t wants to pay for them either.
    A shameful trick that puts defence in a disasterous situation.

Viewing 15 posts - 541 through 555 (of 902 total)