It will be yet another speech which says everything and nothing. “Tough decisions” and “cuts” being the most common words in it, followed by “the MOD must share its part of the burden of the debt reduction effort”.
Which also includes magically surging money for Trident from a budget already inadequate. As such, a totally useless speech.

They have absolutely no shame indeed. The confidence i had in Fox alredy vanished since it has already become obvious that he’s totally powerless and hostage of the Treasury and of the party (Dave first of all) which is mostly sided on the Treasury, no matter the consequences.
No one did notice the -3% on the markets coming from USA’s data on unemployment being higher than hoped???
What kind of reaction do they expect from the City when their cuts create a new invasion of unemployed people in the UK?
They aren’t just trashing the defence of the realm, they are harming the fragile economy recovery as well. They are about to make a serious mistake.

And i’d like to get a proper answer on just why “there’s nothing special about the defence budget” while the Aid budget is special enough not to be just ringfenced, but to be increased.
Also, i’d like to hear a lot more pressure being made on the EU budget, this year planned to absorb roughly 9 billions, to be slashed without mercy. THOSE are cuts to be given total urgency and priority. The true wastes in the budget.

However, this evening i was making my own little reasoning about possible savings and reorganizations of fleets. In particular, i was reasoning on helicopters, both of the Army Air Corps and of the Fleet Air Arm.

As to the AAC, i’m supposing that the Future Lynx-Wildcat and the Lynx MK9A will be the only Lynx choppers that will remain in 2014 as the older Lynx go. Having quite some commonality (mainly about engines) the Wildcat and Lynx MK9A can almost be considered as a single, homogeneous fleet. 34 Wildcats + 22 Lynx MK9A.

What i don’t understand is the Gazelle. I read it should go out of service in 2018. WHY? What are Gazelles doing? Are they really that useful? With more and more drones in service, the army still really needs such outdated scouts? They never got deployed in Afghanistan for what i know, and possibly even Iraq did not see them.
Wouldn’t it be possible to get rid of all Gazelles immediately as cost saving measure?
The 5 AAC Regiment (8 Gazelles) and the 7 AAC (12) would be closed, but i don’t see a real loss in capabilities just because the Gazelle goes…

The AAC in the long term would ideally field:

1 Regiment 10 Lynx MK9A (down from 16)

2 Training Regiment (variable numbers of Lynxs, Apaches)

3°,4°,9° each with 2 squadrons of 8 Apaches and one squadron of 8 Wildcats

7° Regiment (possibly getting the other 12 Lynx MK9A or the remaining 10 Wildcats, or a mix of the two types, depending on how many airframes must be constantly used by 2 regiment for training crews)

5° Regiment would retain its Defenders

660° Squadron has Squirrel planes for initial training: to stay or to go? With less and less helicopters in service, RAF and Army and Navy could unify training since they all use Squirrels at this stage.

3° (TA) Flight flies the 4 A109 of the SAS

657° Wing Special Forces Support flies 12 Lynx now: it could get 12 Lynx MK9A, but the press reported a buy of 10 helos for the Special Forces was one of the little “good” sides of the Review. The NH90 was reported for the role. I never trusted that much that report, but i wouldn’t want this wing to disappear, since SFs are arguably the best weapon in anti-terrorism.

This plan should allow some substantial savings, what do you think? I wonder why the Gazelles never got mentioned so far… It sincerely seems like they represent the lest painful of cuts, considering the other proposals.

As to the FAA: they will get only 28 Wildcats against the 34 of the army, and 30 Merlin HM2. Should be handed all Merlin HC3 after they are navalized, so 28 airframes (22+6 HC3A). Merlin AEW [stated requirement 10 airframes, new buy (hopefully…)]

702°: 8 Wildcats (OCU unit: could the army and navy share a single OCU for Wildcats since that the commonality is massive? It would still take some choppers in army and some in navy configs, but it may allow to sacrifice less airframes of both types to mere training, since the piloting work is the same and the difference comes in sensors and mission fit/procedures)

815°: it would get all the other 20 or so Wildcats (down from 36 now)

820°: 9 Merlin HM2

824°: Merlin OCU unit: the navy currently has a OCU for Sea King HC4, one for Sea King AEW, one for Merlins. With all roles moving to Merlin based aircrafts, wouldn’t it be possible to create a single, larger OCU squadron? Large part of the training for radar crew for AEW could be done on land in simulators. Same probably for sonar crew.
The pilots should (correct me if i’m wrong!) be required to do pretty much the same work whatever the version, right? Besides, since many RN crews from HM1 ended up training to insert infantry in Afghanistan with HC3 anyway, wouldn’t it make sense to make it all together?

814°: Merlin HM2

829°: currently uses Merlin HM1, may have to be disbanded since only 30 Merlin HM2 are to get in service.

845°: 10 Merlin HC3 (to be named HM3 after navalization???)

846°: 10 Merlin HC3

848°: currently Sea King HC4 OCU. To become Merlin HC3 OCU if an unitary OCU is not feasible. Up to 8 Merlin HC3

847°: currently uses Lynx 7 to supply Commandos with RECCE and Fire support. Probably going to be disbanded, its role taken up by a flight of Apaches borrowed from AAC in time of need.

849: current Sea King AEW OCU. To become OCU for Merlin AEW if single OCU is not feasible

854° and 857° currently Sea King AEW: possible unification? To get all Merlin AEW (10 or 6 if 4 must be taken up by a OCU)

792°: Mirach target drones, to stay without modifications.

Some serious savings should be possible, even if in this case they are mostly only long-term ones, especially if ALL Merlins get in Culdrose, because that would leave Yeonvilton almost empty at that point, with just the Wildcats based in there. The base may be reduced to a mere support runway and scaled back a lot from current size/ground crews and equipment.

RAF Benson at that point would close. If the Puma HC2 does not get cancelled, it may make sense to have both squadrons using it based at Aldergrove.
Personally, i would sacrifice the Puma for securing funding for Merlin HC3 navalization, Merlin AEW buy, and possibly for an handful of new airframes to build in the long term, either a few more Merlins or Wildcats.
It would also remove yet another support line/fleet from the list, allowing in theory for substantial savings.

Perhaps ive got confused

I thought that the whole issue of Britain giving them to Argentina was a non starter as Britain does not own them (any more) and that the Islanders are British Citizens because they choose to be.

Not that it really matters either way, the fact is they are not covered by NATO

Argentina’s claims are absurd for many reasons, mainly because the Falkland’s people chose to stay british, in compliance to the principle of Self Determination that’s the base of the whole UN structure.

The fact that Siria, Venezuela, and the whole of Sud America support argie’s claims is a contraddiction and it is caused only by their different aims on the oil under the islands.
What horrifies me is that the US were capable to call tell “Malvinas” and call for negotiations when there truly is nothing to negotiate about. The USA were the biggest supporters of the Self Determination principle when the UN was created: it allowed them to see the British Empire finally destroyed (with more than doubtful advantages for many of the countries born from the old empire, since they are broken and desperate third world countries like Yemen or others) and now they shy away from their very own son when Self Determination acts to preserve the brits one of their oversea territories.

There’s really nothing to negotiate at all.
The Argies were offered a share in a plan of collaborative exploitation of the oil resources under the islands, and unilaterally broke the pact once again claiming sovereignty.
Only the Guardian can be mad enough to support the “giving Falklands away” humiliation, ignoring besides how much of a stab of knife in the Falkland’s islanders’ back that would be.

Also, a good article for the ones claiming that the british empire was evil and caused harm to the colonized nations: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6981556.ece

I may be wrong, but i saw the LSA acronime as well around. May just be the press being imprecise as always, though.

Ah, ok. Yeah, LSD should be the correct term, but it seems the RN calls them LSA or sometimes LSD(A) for Landing Ship Auxiliary.

It’s not the same country as it was in 2000, we’re in the middle of a big recession and the population has had its fill of two wars where we’ve seen our soldiers, sailors and airmen die for very little return for British interests!!

There is a big difference between the Falklands/Sierra Leone and Afghanistan. We as a country will absolutely stand up for our interests/people but the vast majority I would say are sick of being involved in these wars.

It may come as a shock to you but the vast majority of Britons don’t care a jot and have limited knowledge of their military so when these stories appear in the mainstream media you will get uninformed comments.

And there have always been self flagelating ‘we no longer have an empire’ types for as long as I can remember. For god sake don’t read the Guardian!!

It amuses me that an Italian gets so worked up over it.

Too late. I read the Guardian already. And it horrified me to no ends. I try not to read online articles (and especially comments) on the Guardian anymore, but at times i can’t resist the curiosity to see what demented points they’ll make and what levels of stupidity they’ll touch. 😀

The top so far was the proposals to exit from the recession by cutting the whole of the armed forces. YAY! 500.000 jobless people + 350.000 defence industry jobs lost in one go along with a market of over 35 billions a year! 😮

And the recession hit everyone, actually.
But not even Greece is in the same level of panic and “CUTSCUTSCUTSCUTS” mood as the UK is. It is almost impossible to understand for us what need is there to cut everything almost without reasoning on it to tackle the debt.
Italy sleeps with its beloved, monstrous public debt from the night of time, pretty much… We are still alive and going, and we certainly do not plan to cut our Lagunari (marines).

And having the Marines intervening to save britons wasn’t what i’d call a war. Stay back and watch was demented. It is right to care for the risk hostages are put in if there’s a military response… but to allow them to be taken away is just absurd.
I understand totally being tired of Afghanistan and Iraq effort (as Italian, i’m also sorta ashamed of how little overall our own contingent does…) and the hundreds of victims it took, but… You know. From that consideration… to seeing certain things… there’s still a massive difference.

And well… I’m weird myself. I’m very fond of Britain, even if i’m italian. That’s why i’m so concerned.
I’m one of those few ones that still remember our debts of gratitude to the 8th Army coming in Italy and kicking the germans out, too.
And i also see that every time the UK seemed to loose its grip on the international stage, bad things happened.
I’d totally feel better with a strong UK in Europe than with an isolationist, Guardian-like decadent country sitting on a small island.

Beware the Guardian and its policy! It is the first and greatest danger the SDSR should consider. 😀

Argentina is legally within it’s rights to do those things and already does.

Not really, doing what you suggest is basically an act of war on Argentinas part.

They can be as vocal as they like. They aren’t going to enter conflict over someone elses claim on some Islands whatever they say as policy.

It would be serious for Argentina indeed since they would be commiting an act of war.

Again, an act of war.

State sponsored terrorism isn’t going to play well with world opinion.

But Argentina at the moment does not block british ships going directly to the Falklands. What if they were to try and do that?
It is either war, or escorting ships to the islands with RN vessels in high-tension state.

A situation similar, but worse and on greater scale, to the one of the skirmishes between patrol vessels around Gibraltar, with Spain regularly invading british space and bothering the ships in the area and laughing of the patrol boats that come, escort the spanish out of the area, and see them just veering to get back in it again.

Oh, you so sure that Chavez or even Brazil wouldn’t support Argentina even with military aid if not direct intervention, in particular if even more significants amounts of oil are discovered around the Falklands? Good for you to be so certain.
I’d expect Chavez to supply Argentina with all kinds of weaponry in exchange for a share of the profits to be made on the oil.
But even if it was merely an argentine blockade at sea, the UK would be firm and powerful enough to enforce the right of shipping with iron and fire even with Brazil and the others bitching about it as loudly as they can…? I see a serious risk in it in which the government of the UK starts to give up on the matter.

As to state-sponsored terrorism… of course, it would be unpopular on the international stage. But Iran? Doesn’t do that already? Is it paying any serious price? No.
Let’s not think about Russia and China selling weapons to all the insurgents and terrorists of the world without anyone saying a thing. Because BAe is evil at selling Typhoons to Saudi Arabia, but you never hear the same reporters express such horror at the continuous sales of Ak47 in millions and millions and RPGs and rockets and everything.
I actually wouldn’t want to find out how bad things could get with an oil rig and its crew captured by a commando of “terrorists”.

The scenarios i suggested are low-cost “acts of war” that Argentina could implement to test the effective firmness of the UK government to accept all the implications of using force to re-establish the status quo.
And i think we may be very surprised of how such a crisis would develop.

The kidnapping of 16 Royal Marines in international waters by Iran wasn’t an act of war, then?
Because if the shameful way that crisis was managed must be assumed as example of what would happen in case a oil rig around the Falklands was captured, we can expect Argentina to get many requests satisfied.
Since the UK government wouldn’t ever fire a Tomahawk on Buenos Aires in answer to such action, the military response could only be a raid of special forces.

Or, more likely, it would end up being diplomacy. With what this implies when you are in disadvantageous position.
Or you see miss “Malvinas” Clinton doing any serious move to chase Argies back…?

Its really too early to be clear about what aircraft have been shortlisted for the Indian contract. Frankly Indian defence procurement is such a mess its difficult to draw any conclusions about their intentions.

Serbia can barely afford to service the tiny number of Mig29 they currently own. Typhoon is waaaay too expensive for them to buy or operate, I would think they would prefer Russian at the moment of they can scrape together the funds for new Mig29 maybe Su27/30 variant but again probably too expensive.

I would say there is a good chance of a Saudi follow on order and Oman is a strong bet.

Serbia’s request for information about a possible buy of 20 Typhoons was on italian specialistic defence-related press, i’m not inventing. They asked a RFI, it is official.

And there’s a simple reason why they don’t look to Russia: they aspire to join NATO, and want to replace the unserviceable MIG21 and the handful of other russian fighters they have got with Typhoon to better integrate in Europe and NATO.

As to the usual little song “it can’t be afforded”, i answer it is all a matter of priorities. If Serbia sees it as a priority, it will buy them saving money on something else. Not everywhere defence is the son of the house’s slave like in the UK.