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Marcellogo

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  • in reply to: Chinese Air Power Thread 17 #2174417
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Moving from PAK-FA thread as it is off topic there.

    Vastly vastly disagree. (Yes, he asked about “on first glance” but the comparison is vs T-50 info)

    – Yes, we know the number of J-20’s flown. Which doesnt mean much at all as that is true for every 5’th gen fighter.
    – Unless i have missed some vital information, we dont know their serials, atleast the true ones. Bort number =/= serial. 053 on T-50 is not a serial number.
    – We only know minimal about differences and modifications J-20 has underwent and it is all completely based on pictures, which again, can be said for every 5’th gen fighter.
    – Hazy shots of cockpit and grainy pictures of supposed AESA radar don’t mean a jack. It doesnt count as information in my eyes.
    – The estimated figures are… estimated. And as far as i know, nothing official, ie complete guesses. The same way some guess Izd.30 will be a 19 tonnes monster. Again, not information.

    In short; for all intents and purposes absolutely all J-20 and J-31 information is based on pictures.

    Uncorrect translation: prima facie mean literally “with my own eyes” and in this particular case “by official sources”.
    Still you get the true meaning of the whole phrase. Bravo.
    Only things we know more that about the russian one, is what will be its final designation…:rolleyes:

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2174445
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Objective and Threshold performance requirements have existed in most if not all RFP’s of this magnitude. BBP just provides an avenue to provide monetary incentives to industry teams that offer performance closer to the objective than the threshold in order to reverse the trend of competition forcing teams to choose threshold targets in order to beat the other side on cost. Even within this its not a blank check to just go on and shoot for the moon. Cost (as would be determined through the ICE) would also have an acceptable range within which they could choose a combination where the winning design comes in at an acceptable higher cost (defined within the scope of the RFP) with accompanied ‘desired’ higher performance. Similarly, the performance offered by one design may come in at an unacceptable cost and therefore may provide no real advantage to the particular design team chasing it.

    If one wants to complain of rigged technical requirements then one must make a technical case for such but preempting one, 4 months before the final RFP is released sounds rather absurd. As things stand Textron is the only company that has backed out citing high performance requirements making it cost-prohibitive for them to chase this with the Scorpion. Within the remaining pool of domestic and foreign-partner based submissions you can have multiple scenarios and its entirely possible for one bid to be at the threshold but offer great value on account of significantly lower cost or the reverse could hold true i.e. a competitor meets the objective requirements (or even exceeds them) with only a marginal higher cost. The new policy recognizes and rewards you for better performance within the threshold-objective range, it doesn’t automatically mean that you can clinch the competition by just doing that.

    What you say sometime relives me into a small hope of someone recovering almot a part of sanity, so now instead of talking about rigging i’ll just talk about putting forth pourposely taylored requisites to favour some of the contenders and to avoid the risk of LoMart to get a virtual monopoly over the US defence procurement…
    Because, you know, what you just said is further comfirming my own suspects: if they would have really chosen the highest possible performances regardless to the price to pay they could have decided for the T-50, if they would have preferred to have a great lead-in trainer, capable to give them all the needed syllabus at the right price, they would have chosen the T-100.
    They instead have chosen to pourposely search for something blurry, whose utility is difficult to even imagine but that would not be covered by both the above mentioned planes.

    In every case, i’ll reply there also to what you said earlier about the CAS plane as a way of influencing the T-x competition. Obviously, it’s just the right contrary : it is the CAS/COIN/FAC plane that have to be derived by the Lead-in trainer that will be chosen, not the other way round.
    M-346FT is something that italians have made for broadening and implementing our own offer to the whole world market, not for a single, even if way the largest, possible future customer.

    Certainly i would be happy if it would find a space as an almost partial substitute of AMX or also of the A-10 but almost in this last case it would mean to take over a part of the F-35 order, something that would ossibly impact its already very high price.
    That’s about the other leg of my initial consideration about living in a normal word…

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2174491
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Yeah, like every American option must automatically be higher performing..
    There are many ways to rig a competition.. if I want to kick out the F-35, I will define a requirement for twin engines rather than a requirement for % of motor failures and that’s it..
    like they say in the industry, the outcome of a good decision matrix is usually known before the matrix has been set up.. 🙂

    In this case the trick was a shotgun one, first try was to set a extremely high g-number in sustained turn, something that the M-346 was not retained able to perform.
    After it was found that the Macchi was indeed able to get the minimum requirement without great problems they further stated that in every casee maximum possible G number would be the winning factor regardless of all other considerations about cost and all other performances.

    No matter if such a required performance has not any real utility in a trainer and neither for an aggressor plane, as the fightes of all the possible adversaries would perform nose pointing / offboresight launch tactics instead of trapping themselves a sustained G furball, it’s just a way to hamper existing trainers and let’s domestic firm to build from the scratch one pourpousely taylored to an otherwise senseless requisite.

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2175105
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Its quite simple – Think of the number of targets, number of aircraft, number of tankers, number of air-bases, number of maintainers, number and cost of munitions and manpower required to sustain all that and then you can get an idea about how moving up to number of munitions per target effects your cost equation. Its just not the cost of the munitions itself but getting the enterprise to deliver that munitions and create the desired level of effect. Each COCOM has a level of demand from each unique air-force, Navy and Army enterprise..If you move up the number of munitions required per target, you impact the number of aircrafts demanded by the COCOM’s for a desired number of targets or missions. This in turn effects the COCOM need for tanker and puts additional stress on the tanker fleet. All in if you want to fight like that you have to stock yourself accordingly. Your main cost drivers are manpower, and hardware sustainment so those decisions absolutely come with consequences.

    Despite the relatively large Anti-ISIL operation (US) in terms of amount of munitions used, or sorties flown the PGM cost is only about 20% of the overall cost.

    What are you describing here is something that can be referred to a campaign of strategical bombing of a country industrial and mobility infrastructure, nothing to di with a CAS mission and above all with the fight to ISIS.
    Let’s just consider the very first one thing you mention in your post i.e. the number of targets and anything falls apart immediately.
    From what I read you seem consider them as a fixed or anyway a quite predictable amount that you can determine beforehandedly: industries, railway stations, barracks, command centers and so on, like it was with Germany or North Vietnam.
    In Syria -Iraq it is not at all like so: you are there facing insurgent forces with not any need of a infrastructure to substain themselves,made up by a collection of small, autonomous armed groups with not a well defined chain of command, all used to scatter themselves to the extreme, to lodge in civilian houses and sustain themselves at the expense of the population of the territories they pretend to have liberated.
    After just some weeks Intl coalition mission rate fell down radically as the initial, small list of fixed targets went quickly depleted and there were not any way to replenship it with more to just an handful of new ones.
    Isis reactedto it dispersing their own units even more: their company sized “regular” formation were scattered down into platoons and so on.
    At the beginning of the russian operation I gave a look to the CENTCOM bullettin reporting the daily flow of mission and the comparison between them and the russian one, both by the numbers than the quality of target engaged was just comical. Even the great deal off recoinnossance assets they used (and the most of them are still manned ones, not drones, just to disappoint even more the high tech junkies there) was simply not enough to get more than an handful of targets a day.
    That’s because the coalition was just keeping on with the strategical bombing approach you are describing here while the RuAf, like before them the SyaAf and the IqAf acted in direct support of their “own” ground forces.
    In such a way, targets are constantly generated by the same ground forces actions that force the insurgent to group on and come in the open not to be overunned intead to just staying concealed/dispersed while still controlling the territory and its resources.

    Ok, that’s just for the first six words of your intervention: would we talk also of the costs of the reconnoissance assets and the tankers needed to perform strategical bombing missions using fighters?

    in reply to: The PAK-FA News, Pics & Debate Thread XXV #2175647
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    They were.. because there was nothing better available at that time.. Frankly, when I get to some older publications reporting about things like Su-19, I realize how poorly covered the other side of the Iron Curtain really was.. Only one step beyond pure guesswork..

    You are kidding, right? Regd. PAK-FA, one can get a remarkable amount of information.. we knew about the first flight weeks before the thing got out for taxi runs, even if nobody knew how the thing looked like.. we get to know the reason for aborted take-off at MAKS the very next day.. or about why the 055 has burnt and which parts were reused for 056.. we are getting remarkably accurate details regd. what radar will be used and on which prototypes it will be installed.. which cars carry the KS-O or KS-U.. how the main spar from T-50-1 and -2 had to be stranghtened.. how the Izd.30 engine is progressing.. we get shots from T-50 sim to see the cockpit.. learn about the frameless HUD developed by Lomo.. we can speculate about exact type of ejector launchers in the main bays read out from published patent applications.. get to see the pics from the production and even 3D CAD data to argue about air intakes.. or even leaked screenshots from Sukhoi’s presentation to IAF containing some classified info..

    how is THAT not enough information? :confused: I wonder if there is one single thing that the IHS staff would know and those maniacs at airforce.ru would not.. I am not holding my breath..

    For a direct comparison: what we really know prima facie about the chinese ones?

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2177171
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Thank to you all for keeping the thread alive.
    And sorry I was out of reach some day , so I’ll try a multiquote to keep it up.

    Use of PGMs is one factor to improving the effectiveness of CAS. Another is pushing the ability to target down to the squad level.

    Currently the JTAC carries a bulky kit used for targeting and passing target data to the CAS asset. But CAS is only effective where the JTAC is, and JTACs are not everywhere. A solution would be to provide a miniaturized version of the JTAC kit to the infantry squad so they can call CAS based on their needs. But that requires Army leadership to get off their duffs and demand targeting capability at the squad level. That same squad should possess backpack UAVs for reconnaissance to answer the question “Are there insurgents planning an ambush in an alley six blocks from here?” Again Army leadership is lacking when a requirements pull is needed.

    Well, problem with TAC is that it is anyway a very complicated process requiring specially trained personnel, way superior than the one used to call for artillery strikes. It os something made usually by air force personnel itself or by SF personnel not by a squad or ever a platoon commander.

    No, the remaining rounds is no miss! Each bullet not hitting target will be noticed by boots on the ground, so they will find cover! And as long as you hear the A10 gun occatinally, you will try to be in hiding. You just dont get the same effect from bombs and rockets.

    It is EXACTLY what our Air Force has learned (or better get an healthy refresh about ) the hard way throught the above cited five day battle. I would not put it using those world you used but the psicological impact of having something orbiting over your heads and ready to intervene as soon as you move from your position was something that effectively surprised the same Aereounatica personnel involved in the operation.
    Obviouslty it is not an effect that you can get using gun only, also bombs, rocket, guided missile would get a similar one, it is more about knowing to have a menace costantly over your head to get the trick done.
    Let’s say that the gun (any one not just thy GAU-8) is the one that has the maximum squatting effect at the lesser cost in term of aereodinamicity and can be used for greater number of times (or also just feigning a strafing run).

    And what about something derived from the Army future airlift program? With tilt rotors and 400kt speed, the boundary b/w aircraft and rotorcraft is definitely blurred.
    You’ll impart no extra cost (and actually provide some extra saving with scale effects), will gain on mobility and deployment and could fill a niche transverse to all services (Navy, Marines and Air force in addidtion to the army).

    Oh nooooo, did I mention a Joint program!?…*

    My though exactly, abov alla because it would solve also the real CAS problem, almost in the west: Asset of air force, benefits for Army.

    Don’t worry Marcello. Non preoccuparti.
    When costing for the development of the new trainers for the US starts putting the squeeze on their other ‘wish list’ programs, they may reconsider an existing proven solution.
    What do you think will see downscaling, the new bomber development, or the most advanced new trainer in the world .

    But the m-346 still needs crew armor and a bigger gun for the CAS mission.
    ISIS does have armored vehicles, not just Toyota pick-up trucks, and if friendlies are under fire, air support needs to be able to ‘open up’ those vehicles, even when they have run out of missiles nd bombs.

    I’m not saying that Aermacchi would not compete anymore, just that they would not made specific investment in order to match this specific requirement, in our opinion pourposely arranged just to hamper T-100 chanche to win tender.
    It would not have sense to radically improve this aspect only, with the result of making it less economically convenient or less reliable it actually is.
    In case the tender would be an open end one, its actual advantages over the other would be enought anyway, if it is as we think it is even actully winning the tender would make us actually sell it, exactly as it happened with the Marine Force One and the C-27j for the Army cases.

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2177930
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    You have to excuse me but I never heard about that software change.

    Macchi engineers went to modify the M/346 frame in order to fullfill the sustained G requirement and found that the frame in itself was more than enough to meet the minimum requirement and that a mere change in the FBW settings would be up to the task.
    It was so decided to don-t go any further in engine and frame modifications as it was concluded that the Master advantages over the proposed alternatives in all other fields and above all the fact that it an already operative plane (and with some of the best world air forces) and not a mere prototype would be sufficient for the task.
    After this it came the 16th of july final requirement letter and we get the message clear and loud…

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2179483
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    The “gun is essential” view of CAS is an archaic throwback to the time when biplanes ruled the skies over the trenches during WWI – spraying projectiles across the countryside (most missing their targets). The A-10 carries 1350 rounds and might kill 5 targets. The remaining 1345 rounds miss!

    How about a modern view where the CAS asset uses its sensors to ID targets and program a target-specific number of tiny “killer bee” PGMs, which seek out and destroy their assigned targets?
    If the “killer bee” loadout weighs the same 1800+kg as the A-10’s GAU-8, and an individual “killer bee” weighs 1 kg, and has a 50% hit rate, then the modern CAS asset can kill 900 targets. That is an 18,000% improvement over the A-10!

    My point is to stop re-fighting the last war using archaic technology. M346 as CAS is a losing proposition.

    Well, you have to forgive us about this.
    As you know we are an archaic people: when your own ancestors still lived in an hut in some part of Saxony we had had Caesar, Vergilius and Augustus by a long time, so we maybe tend to be quite conservative in certain matters.

    Still we just have a CAS plane in our inventory, a quite unconventional one: no big gun, no great armor but also with such shortcomings and despite a certain initial underextimation of it, we now regard it as a fundamental asset, of our air force also because they had the possibility to test on field how also the ridicolous peashooter it had was a really useful tool, above all to make talibans squat down instead of overrunning the position of those US marines that were stuck down in a bog with their during what we call “the five day battle” (august 2012) i.e.how long it took to rescue them.

    So, given that such PGM you descrive are still in the head of God, as we use to say, i’m happy to inform you that the most appreciated item, both by pilots than by the, always forgotten when talking about CAS, grunt on ground, of our AMX was precisely the RECCELLITE pod thanks to the ability it had to not only gather but also to distribute in real time the information to the troops on field, something that saved several lives in AFganistan, just by preventing ambushes and that is was anyway followed in this by the LITENING one to guide PGM bombs.
    So no one there is advocating to employ only the gun (and above all to install a A-10 like monster on a modern plane) on such a mission, only trying to made undestand to you and other like minded people that the Close Air SUPPORT mission is, almost in our own’s archaic people air force vision, something just an universe or two more complicated that a mere body count.

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2179501
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Is that new offer a hint that the M346 structure has been beefed-up to sustain the G-load expected in the T-X competition? Hence this CAS offer to offset the increased OP cost (heavier)?

    Tomcat, it was found that the M-346 had the possibilities to meet the minimum requirement by itself, just with some software change.
    As soon as this became evident, the final requirement was changed into making the maximum sustained G the key factor to the choice of the T-X, all other excluded.
    So we sorta received the real message: no matter how much you would possibly modify the M-346, WE WANT AN AMERICAN DESIGN TO WIN THE CONTRACT.

    Point , case closed, no use to spend more money on a rigged tender. Let’s concentrate into selling to all the rest of the world.

    in reply to: The PAK-FA News, Pics & Debate Thread XXV #2180629
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    It would be helpful if you gentlemen could identify the “moronic nonsense” and “pure bull****”, and show us how/why it is wrong.

    Hopefully, IHS will publish an article giving whatever evidence they have for a major gap in production. It is not something that I have heard.

    The comment about declining standards may be a fair one. I have never met the IHS ‘Aviation Team Manager” who did the video, and have no idea what is background/expertise might be, but in recent years the company has lost a number of its most experienced staff. This is a general problem that many defence publishing houses are having. For example, at this year’s Eurosatory and Farnborough, there was no Eric Biass (former editor of ‘Armada International’, but now retired), no Bill Sweetman (ex Aviation Week, but now gone over to the dark side of The Force), and I understand that the IHS electro-optics specialist has retired, so was not at the shows.

    One thing I notice from the video and from a couple of recent IHS business cards is that the ”J” word has disappeared. It seems to survive only in the traditional titles of the yearbooks. Fred T must be turning in his grave.

    Lrt’s say that the same first slide they showed iws a total nonsense, 4gen having same stealth reduction features?;)
    Certainly no baseline 4 gen plane (F-14,F-15, F-16, Mirage 2k, first series Fulcrum and Flanker and MiG-31 ) even imagined the existence of such things and also the fact that some successive planes (mainly Eurocanards) were said to show some good performances in that field was more the result of favourable unrelated design solutions than a determined effort.
    For the question of production, the 12 ordinatives are really an enormous order as we are talking PROTOTYPES , all differing one to the other, ordered to Sukhoi NAPO (formerly OKB i.e. design bureau) not serial made operational aircrafts built by production plants under the control of the greater Sukhoi concern.
    For Heaven’s sake! We still doesn’t know what will the be the PAK-FA final designation and they are talking about a second series order.:stupid:

    in reply to: M-346 FT, a new CAS plane for Italy and USA? #2180635
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    it definitely offers an interesting capability to nations that would want a combat capable jet trainer. But the M-346 FT concept does not feature a radar, which means that it isn’t really going to be able to compete against other light fighters, but as a bomb carrier in non contested airspace or with escorts, it is going to be quite useful. As a retrofit solution for existing customers and a future solution for new customers, I think it will find some traction.

    There is a trend towards this already. BAe/HAL have signed a JV to undertake similar development on the Hawk, calling it the Combat Hawk, by modifying the wing to improve agility and performance, new cockpit avionics, HMDS, LDP, higher thrust engine with FADEC and integrating new air to ground and close combat missiles. Radar may also be integrated, but it’s not yet certain.

    Quite clearly, affordability and lower operational costs are considered to be marketable features for trainers that can then be called upon to perform some missions that do not require cutting edge avionics or the most sophisticated fighters.

    So the M-346 FT is supposed to feature
    – 5 under wing and under fuselage hardpoints
    – inflight refueling capability
    – ability to carry different recon and designation pods
    – tactical DL like the Link 16
    – self protection CMDS

    http://alert5.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/1.jpg

    Well, in our case it would be a substitute of AMX, something that is certainly into its own capabilities, just let’s add an inboard gun, maybe a 27mm of retired Tornado and you can go forward.
    Certanly no one pretend it to be used instead of a Typhoon or a F-35, but in a scenario like Lybia or Syraq it would be ideal.

    in reply to: Russia moving tac air troops to Syria #2182591
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    It says 5000 attacked and losses at 800.

    http://tass.ru/en/defense/891913

    Iraki uses helicopter more effectively they have larger fleet and using it in formations . Helicopter is too risky never fly transport copter and fighters alone. Just CSIR need very immediate.

    Ok, three in a row: asking Iraqi helicopters to intervene is a nonsense, they are several hundreds km away, even if ecquipped with fuel tanks they would not get enough autonomy to stay there for the time needed to have an impact.
    In a CAP mission the most important requirement is loitering time: just to come drop ordnance and go just does’t work in a fluid environment.
    You have instead to stay there to spot and hamper enemy maneuvres not just targeting predetermined positions (that often never exist).

    Su-25s would be useful right now, especially if SAA had semi-competent FAC personnel who could relay targets as they form up to attack. Would be a faster and probably safer (unless Aleppo rebels suddenly have a bunch of manpads) response then helicopters, and better accuracy vs non static targets then Su-24 dropping irons.

    Yes, they will surely operate in that way or better in that two-way as the maximum efficency of CAS is reached when such cooperation is complete with the plane acting as a tactical observer for the troops on terrains but also for other incoming aerial assets. So there is neither the necessity to chose between one or the other asset as assault helos and even zoomers can get a lot of help by the fact that a CAS plane is costantly
    there while they intead come and go.

    I do not know what models of Su-24 the SAA has in their inventory and i think the SVP-24 was upgrade later on not right away.

    According to the defence magazines I usually read the SVP (or similar devices) were installed not just on the Su-24 but also on others SyAAF planes.
    Surely Mig-29 and L-39 as their respective versions already existed but with all probabilities also on Fitters and Floggers.

    in reply to: Russia moving tac air troops to Syria #2182750
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    I suggested they would be cut off by air power, but it would seem the SAA took a more physical approach
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CowzOUrXYAA1FJA.jpg:large

    if this is true, there could be hundreds of top rebel troops trapped in a small area

    to link this to the SVP-24, that means VKS now wants to put as much ordnance as it can into that area
    accuracy won’t matter much when you want to saturate bomb
    especially with ordnance that’s essentially free, compared to the $25k+ the US pays per shot

    Thinking that aerial bombings, even with the great rithms Russian has showed in Syria could completely block an area is a bit of a far cry.
    At the contrary the close coordination between land and air forces is one of the “secrets” of the great effectiveness of said expedition and that finally seems to have finally get also into the dumb heads of the international coalition commanders despite their congenite JDAMtism.
    And accuracy matter a lot:it is precisely because of that they have introduced a such large swathes of SVP-24 and others targeting devices in their planes.
    You can easily see it from the fact that NO ONE PLANE used until now, even the TU-22M, have ever been spotted carrying their own (actually often impressive) maximum load of unguided ordnances.

    in reply to: The PAK-FA News, Pics & Debate Thread XXV #2183790
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Okhotnik is not under development it is in use since several years. Ka-52, Mi-28N and Ka-50/N.

    http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160731/icegpb4u.jpg
    http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160731/kpk3cxnw.jpg
    http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160731/df6fiyoa.jpg
    http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160731/jqb5d3fk.jpg

    The only thing it faces are upgrades.

    Thanks for the info Molnya and about the translator thing, no worry: I solved it turning it into Croatian instead than English, result was crystal clear.
    It is basically a problem about language structure: declination based languages are actually strongly ellipsiscal in their sentences, English at the right contrary structurally needs all phrase’s elements clearly explicitated for a clear or even a minimal understanding.
    So translator can even turn perfectly each single world of the former into the latter but cannot fill the gaps.

    in reply to: The PAK-FA News, Pics & Debate Thread XXV #2184286
    Marcellogo
    Participant

    Given the fact UAC and RuAF moved LRIP to 2018, we won’t get any significant news in the coming weeks.

    But here is an interesting news about ‘Okhotnik'(Hunter) system which is under development by KRET.

    G-Translate:

    Noo, another tentative to use translator on a language with declinations…
    AARGH, now i can only guess: is it a sort of automatic targeting device like the one of Kornet M? or even something similar to the F-35’s DASS?

Viewing 15 posts - 991 through 1,005 (of 1,560 total)