Leaving aside the INF considerations because in the current environment all these treaties are losing their effectiveness by the day, Iskander was not built to carry a nuclear warhead, its a platform designed to kill Patriot missile batteries more so than anything else. Even if they wanted to converting the system to carry a nuke will cost money and serious time. It is not a 1 day conversion job. You dont just screw on the warhead. Its also roughly the size of the SS-23 so the 500km range is doubtful since the SS-23 was barely a 400km missile. You really think they got a 25% range improvment, low level flight and S-curve manuevers out of the thing? Doubtful, material sciences have not changed that much. Most sources say the domestic varient is a 400km missile and this is probably the number until some Red Army general tells us otherwise. Also, WHAT ISKANDER’s? There are only something like 2 missile battalions worth of the things in Russia today. They cant rely much on a platform that is barely in service.

The 1,000km version of Brahmos is currently a twinkle in some engineers eye. They dont even have a prototype.

The CFE treaty has been defacto dead for a long time because NATO is not abiding by it and neither is Russia. The Russians have wanted modifications to it for a long time to account for this, but the US has continued to push talks back. This is a cry of desperation out of Putin because he has been ignored on this issue for years and years. Saying the CFE is obsolete is an understatement.

Finally, if you want to understand why Russia is afraid of interceptors in Poland and Alaska please look at Russianforces.org. Pavel has a lovely chart somewhere on his blog showing what the Russian strategic forces will look like in 2015.

They will have 1500 deliverable warheads on some 300 launch platforms. 200 interceptors in Alaska scares the pants out of Russia because the Russian generals know they will only have 300 bloody missiles soon.

You really have to have no objectivity to not see the threat to Russia.

“generally” ICBM’s WERE designed top down because warhead inventories were expanding as opposed to contracting like they have been for 20 odd years now.

The design work that was done in the 1980’s did NOT result in a new warhead, but rather a modification of the original warhead on the R-29 that we now see on the R-29RM. The warhead on the RM is modified rebuild of the original and not an all new design. There is ZERO reason to assume they have developed new warheads.

That article about new tactical nukes really isnt saying anything about new tactical nuclear warheads, what its really implying is more accurate delivery mechanisms are in the works. The stockpiles of warheads are so huge that it makes ZERO sense to build new ones.

Also, when the Russians were working on the modified warhead for the R-29RM it was well known for years in advance. Strategic systems are supposed to deter and they cant deter if they are completely black. We still dont have any details about the modification but we know it exists at least and has been in service for almost 3 years now.

3,000 centrifuges that are more than 3 generations behind the latest models. Russia is currently putting together its first 9th gen centrifuges. the Iranians are in the stoneage in this area. Why people are seriously worried about a mere 3,000 when with that level of tech they need more like 30,000 is totally beyond me. Iran is so far from being a threat at this point that we can all go to sleep, wake up in a decade and still have nothing to worry about.

Iran is not the US or the USSR. 20 years is probably being optomistic really given that they have no nuclear bomb at all right now and then the miniturization of one for use on a missile is is arguably harder than making the initial breakthrough. They could well end up with the sort of capability N.Korea has; which is to say not much of one at all. Iran has a meagre 180 billion dollar GDP and a scientific-industrial base 1/20th the size of Russia’s, I wont even compare it to the US. Their materials sciences sector basically does not exist. All (or almost all) their specialty metals are imported. Serious sanctions (and not the current half-assed attempts that are full of gaping holes) will probably set any Iranian program back a further decade.

Finally, if you think the Russians can strike with things like air planes and get around the missile shield that way I’ve got news for you — SO CAN THE IRANIANS. Whats to stop them from hiding a nuke on an oil tanker and sailing into any port in Europe they want? They can put a nuke on a foreign flagged vessel and sail it into the US!

Any idea why the thing would need to displace 24,000 tons to carry a measly 12 missiles? The Yankees were only about a third of that with the same number of missiles and even the Ohios are only 18,000 tons or so with 24 larger missiles. :confused:

this is probably the result of their deployment doctrine. The Boreis will probably be deployed a lot like the Typhoons were and that means having to break lots and lots of ice so you need the mass for that. Bigger boats are also generally quieter and sonars keep getting bigger and bigger too. If the US built a new boomer today it would certainly be bigger than the Ohio’s.

The Russians plan on shifting the bulk of their surface fleet assets to the Pacific in the coming decade as that fleet starts to take priority, but the boomers will remain in the Northern fleet. I wouldnt be surprised if all that remains in the the european theatre in 20 years will be Lada’s (in the Baltic to counter the nordic SSK’s) and Boreis.

Some people who have looked at the pictures of the Borei have concluded she has side mounted sonar arrays but they dont bulge out like the American ones, there was sufficient room internally for them. I dont know if we can really jump to that conclusion right now, but that could be a part of it. Also, post-launch some sources are now saying that even this first boat actually has 16 launchers and not 12. We wont really know until better picture are released though.

people who defend this ABM system must not understand game theory very well. The problem with ABM is simple and doesnt go away even if you can rely on US promises to limit the system to 10 interceptors or to put Russia into the decision making loop.

Here is the problem.

Pretend you are president of Russia and crisis XYZ has just erupted between you and the US. Your conventional forces suck so you cant rely on them for anything more than splattering Chechens. A tactical nuclear response is your only leverage in the face of overwhelming NATO conventional strength. You want to undertake a “nuclear test” (missile and everything, not just a warhead) on your Western border to scare NATO or your contemplate a limited tactical strike on some tertiary target in eastern europe to send a message. You want to fire 1 missile. Your generals come you and say — “Comrade President, YOU CANT FIRE ONE MISSILE. If you fire one missile the capitalist pigs will intercept it and we will look like idiots. FIRE ALL THE MISSILES.”

ABM takes the limited nuclear strike option away from Russia and makes FULL COMMITMENT much more likely. They cant fire 1 missile anymore and expect it to hit. Now they have to fire at least 11! If they fire 11 NATO could well think its the start of a full Russian commitment (11 looks a lot worse than 1) and then NATO will go and fire everything it has.

Thus ABM introduces danger, it does not take it away. The current system has worked for almost 50 years why screw with what works? Iran is a hollow excuse.

there is ZERO evidence of a new warhead design and it would be an AMAZING waste of money if its true. They have just over 3000 odd deliverable warheads now but as many as 12,000 additional warheads are sitting in stockpiles. While many of these are tactical warheads many more are strategic warheads taken off old missiles. Designing a new warhead when you have stockpiles this big is nuts. Topol and Bulava almost certainly carry old warheads. If they developed a new RV that tells you nothing about the warheads they stick in it.

Only the Americans are dumb enough IMHO to waste money on a new and unproven warhead design when they also have upwards of 10,000 so called “undeliveralbe” warheads sitting in stockpiles now. These warheads are basically good forever with a little maintenance. Defensenews had a whole article this week on the idiocy that is pushing the US to develop new warheads. Its basically one big pork project. Russia doesnt have the money to flush down the toilet.