soyuz1917These proposed sanctions are comical. Since the economic multiplier on high end manufactures is somwhere between 4x and 5x (as opposed to 2x for service based industries like finance) when you sanction 20 billion euros in sales you are really cutting 80-100 billion in GDP off your own economy. 6 years of Greek bailouts has now totaled 109 billion Euros and that damage is over 6 years. This would be roughly comparable only all at once instead of spread out over 6 years. And that’s before the Russians retaliate which they already are — banning purchase of Western software and networking gear by Russian government to the tune of costing likes of Microsoft and Cisco $8 billion in sales per year.
Russia is not Iran. Russian economy is 400% larger and whereas Iran was never integrated in Western stream of commerce Russia is $500 billion a year of it. This is very dangerous game. Only winner will be China.
Europe never sanctioned the USSR and the USSR was actual mortal threat.
soyuz1917http://bmpd.livejournal.com/923667.html
Here is article on efforts to get Ukrop aviation workers to pack up and move to Russia. In short, it doesnt take much convincing since wages in Russian aviation plants are 45-70,000 rubles per month now $1500-2300 which is between 4 and 6x what these people make in Ukraine. Throw in some subsidized housing and it doesnt take much to get them to move since they do not need to learn a new language. The wage disparity isnt even the half of it. Ukrainian schools no longer function. The education budget was literally just cut to zero. You have to pay to get your kids educated. Hospitals dont function. Its a failed state. Nobody with an education is staying put.
soyuz1917The Chinese L-15 program is basically dead in the water now thanks to Ukraine. Motor-Sich is effectively bankrupt with the end of Russian sales and the pilfering of their staff by UEC. Russians have funded a special program to get Ukrainian aviation workers to pack up and move to Russia. Getting AI-222 engines out of Ukraine or anything much more technically complex than a brick of steel is now basically impossible for EVERYONE — not just Russa. With the end of subsidized Russian energy its also no longer going to be cost competitive with Russian offerings even if production resumes. Biggest factor keeping old Ukrainian factories with lines that havent been modernized since the 80’s cost competitive was subsidized energy that even Russian producers themselves never got. That’s all over. Unless the Chinese find a domestic replacement for the AI-222 the L-15 wont be outselling the Yak-130.
soyuz1917I would like a source for the assertion that India has an agreement with Russia for fully indigenized production of the Al-31. Not happening if for no other reason than India could never justify the multi-billion dollar production line for a fleet of 170 aircraft. Saturn is basically sitting on a $3 billion facility.
I would further like a source explaining how India can blame Russia for mid-air engine failures when no other flanker operator is reporting any similar issues. The Su-30MKI at this point has been in service for pushing 15 years. Design defects dont just materialize 15 years later. Reads like an issue with assembly, repair or use.
soyuz1917Perhaps this conflict will cause nations around the world to shift money allocation away from attack helos
Nah, the hahol pilots don’t know what they are doing and are just hovering in place in perfect range of AAA. It’s amazing they haven’t lost more helos with these tactics. Lesson of the war so far is incompetence gets you killed.
soyuz1917The Ukrainian government just stepped in and fired Antonovs chief designer and CEO Dmitry Kiva. Reasons unknown, too friendly with Russia by the sounds of it.
This will have huge consequences I think, both for Russia and Ukraine itself.
In 2014 Antonov is an airliner and not a manufacturer and certainly not a design house. The company is dead and Jesus Christ himself rising from the dead couldn’t bring it back. They can appoint whoever they like to be president of that corpse because it makes no difference.
Motor-Sich is last jewel in Ukrainian defense industry and reality is the Russians have been working to kill it for years now and are almost there. The final break will be painful for Russia but fatal for Ukraine.
Their participation in the PD-14 is never going to result in work share. They are there as artificial competition to force a superior product out of their Russian competition (Tomsk). But there is no universe in which they are awarded work share on the final engine.
soyuz1917I actually meant Il-38, the ASW derivative from Il-18 linee.
Being almost 40 years old the youngest Il-38 airframe still flying with RuAF, I believe a replacement or at least a supplement is overdue.
With an MPA derivative of Tu204/214, it would be at least possible to relieve some missions from the aged and shrinking Il38 fleet.
The Il-38 fleet s actually quite healthy, is not really shrinking and could fly another 20-25 years with no need for replacements. Some 35 or so Il-38’s were mothballed in the mid 80’s well prior to the Soviet collapse and have very few hours on them. They are practically new-built airframes though very old. They have over 60 airframes in total and even the “operational” units spent the 90’s not flying and so have a lot of time left on the airframes. There is absolutely no need to replace the airframe — upgrade its sensors, yes, but the airframes are practically as good as the day they were built.
They have funded upgrades on 28 Il-38N’s. I believer 2 have previously been upgraded with Novella so 30 upgraded birdies in total or maybe 29 if only that one (bort #15) was upgraded. This leaves them second only to the US in terms of MPA assets.
soyuz1917From what source are you getting those numbers for the TPY-2? Only numbers I have ever seen for it were 1,000km (600 mile) DETECTION range for ballistic missile targets. I have never seen anything like 870km for .01^2m TRACK ranges. 870 might well be detection range, but that would give you a track range of maybe half that and in line with the smaller Russian system if scaled another meter up.
Russian MMIC’s are not better than Western MMIC’s but any major gap is long gone. If not at complete parity there is gap of 12-18 months now. They are on par with the Japanese now. More to the point they are years ahead of EU and their programs are much better funded in this area.
soyuz1917MMIC development is world removed from ASIC development. It involves an entirely different area of material science and is less about the lithographic process than fundamental chemistry. MMIC’s are still in the 130-170nm world — not 28nm like ASICs or 22nm like latest Intel chips. No $2 billion fabs required and the Russians do not lag at all in MMIC development while they source all their ASIC work to Israel or Taiwan. Talk of dependency on German tech here is laughable. Russians lead Germany in MMIC development today. They are about tied with Japan for second with US lead probably in the 1 year to 18 month range if there is much lead at all. Kremlin has seriously floated the idea of kicking Thales out of the Russian comm sat market because domestic Russian MMIC’s and the back ends for them are now more than competitive with any Thales offering. In fact they will probably be forced out kindly very soon.
soyuz1917The An-148 is not stealing any commercial orders from the SSJ. The 148 is dead on arrival commercially. There are ZERO airlines interested in the type. The only customers for the type are power ministries who cant buy SSJ’s owed to the foreign content. Best thing Russia can do is kill Ukrainian aerospace. It is absurd to constantly have two entrants in every market segment. The US doesn’t shoot itself in the foot by offering up an American competitor to the 737 and Russia doing it is even more insane. Antonov needs to be killed. Motor-Sich even more so. No other enterprises in Ukraine even matter. A merger a la Maz with Kamaz wont happen because the hohols are delusional.
soyuz1917New stats for in service An-148’s and An-140’s.
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/480988.html
Looks like they are up to getting 259 hours a month out of the An-148.
soyuz1917Russians are betting they will be a critical 3-4 years quicker to market. There is huge lead. The Il-476 flight program will be much quicker owing to it being an established type and it will be reengined with PD-14’s much faster than the Y-20 will get CJ-1000A’s.
The logic works like this. With D-30’s its not outperforming the Il-476 so nothing to worry about. The Il-476 itself will be reengined for PD-14’s by 2017-18. The Chinese dont expect series production of the CJ-100A until 2020! The PD-14 is much further along. Figure 2 more years to reengine the type for the engine which takes you to 2022 and that’s optimistic. The PD-14 engined Il-476 will hit the market at least 3-4 years sooner which given the age of the outstanding commercial Il-76 fleets will be right at the time when their operators will be getting most desperate for replacements. By the time the Y-20 becomes competitive they should have the Il-76 operators all sown up with new contracts.
soyuz1917http://newsru.com/russia/29dec2012/vnukovo.html
A Red Wings Tu-204. Pretty much ends any remaining hope of a Tu-204SM sale to Red Wings.
soyuz1917I’m surprised this hasn’t been posted here before. In Q1 2013 the Kremlin is set to seal a massive new $8.6 billion contract with UAC for 105 “people movers” for various power ministries including the VVS. This contract should pretty much revive Russian commercial aviation all by itself.
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/414976.html
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bmpd/38024980/427032/427032_original.jpg
$600 million of the total $8.6 billion will go to Antonov in Ukraine in the form of royalties in connection with design and patents they own as part of the An-148 program, but all the rest remains in Russia to further strengthen the “unbreakable Soviet industrial machine.”
This contract only concerns 105 new built “people movers.” Additional contracts for specialized aircraft like refuelers and ELINT jets for the MoD are planned.
The MoD will get — 39 An-148’s, 2 Tu-214’s, 11 Tu-204SM’s.
The Presidential administration, which is charged with ferrying about VIP’s will get — 6 An-148’s, 6 Tu-214’s, 8 Il-96-300’s, and 1 Tu-204-300.
The FSB will get — 4 An-148’s, 2 Tu-214’s, 1 Il-476, and 2 Tu-204-300’s.
The MVD will get — 6 An-148’s 2 Tu-204SM’s, and 2 SSJ’s.
The Ministry of Emergencies (commie FEMA) will get — 2 An-148’s, 4 Il-476’s and 1 Tu-204-300.
Roscosmos will get — 3 Tu-214’s, and 3 SSJ’s.
soyuz1917Even if the Lada class was 100% bug free and they could churn them out like pop corn they would in all likelihood continue with improved Kilo procurement. The Lada is too small tonnage wise to do the job the Russkies need done. I don’t believe it was ever meant to wholly replace the Kilo line.
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