Politics:
– Air Force officers do not want UAVs. They are mainly combat pilots, who do not want be universally hated for killing the Top Gun fantasy. Just like they did not want the F-16 because it would take away money from their F-15 wonder child. Or the A-10, which they have tried to kill numerous times, and might now be turned into the first operational UCAV! Or missiles on a Predator, which they thought was a stupid idea, until the CIA showed them wrong. Or when they insist that real pilots should fly their UAVs, even though the Army has proven NCOs with some extra software can do it better and cheaper.
– Aircraft builders are not so biased, which is why Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Atomics are investing so much of their own money into developing UAVs, even though the Air Force made no formal requests. They know this is where the real future of military aviation lies.
Some random points:
– Air-to-Air UCAVs will come. The Air Force will try to slow this process, like cancelling the J-UCAS, to protect the gold-plated JSF. The F-35 will however go the F-22 way, leaving a fighter gap that the Air Force will be forced to fill with UCAVs, a golden opportunity for Boeing or Northrop Grumman, although we know Lockheed Martin has done plenty of classified research on UAVs and might still surprise us.
– There will be little danger of UCAVs shooting down civilian airplanes, because most of the time ground controllers will have the time to approve the attack, just like modern day pilots usually request permission before engaging.
Sorry for the paraphrasing of your action-packed post….
The USN is taking a different approach to UAV’s, namely UCAV-N’s, which several models are in development, and might even make it to ship trials by the end of 2011. The Navy is not run by (fighter) pilots, and that is helping them to foster the development of real tactical UAV’s with industry. BTW, Top Gun is a Navy program…
While there is little danger of a UCAV shooting down a civilian aircraft, there is the danger of collision – pilots are required to “see and avoid” under FAA and ICAO rules. I find the collision scenario unlikely, but many civilian pilots are leery. A few months ago, a Fire Scout launched from Pax “strayed” into restricted / controlled airspace around Washington, aka the SFRA. Apparently there was talk about shooting down the malcontent, but operators were able to reestablish control of the UAV and retrieved it without further incident. Needless to say, it has been grounded until some software is rewritten.
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