Not so sure…

Fortunately, that day will never come.

No they can’t.

The PLA is a collection of very disorganized, incompetent, and competing warlords, it is nothing like a national military like the US military or the Russian military. The training is poor, and the generals are completely clueless about fighting a war, as demonstrated by disastrous outcomes in Korea, Soviet Union, and in 1979 Vietnam.

Not only that, each of PLA’s 7 military districts(the territory of a warlord) are competitors for power who are happy to take out the other guy when the other guy is in trouble for some reason, so don’t expect any coherent joint war efforts between the warlords against say, the US or Japan.

Not only the countries you mentioned with the exception of Vietnam are protected by the US nuclear umbrella, every capable country on earth goes nuclear the moment China uses nukes against its pledge of “never first use”.

So China’s nuclear weapons is like Bee’s sting; you can use it once, but you die too.

I don’t think the U.S. would respond to a nuclear attack on it’s allies in kind. After all of the stigma around the missions at the end of WW2, I doubt the U.S. would ever use nuclear weapons again. I don’t think it is wise to ever underestimate what an enemy ‘might’ do in a conflict. The EMP value alone could gift the PLAAF or PLAN a short tactical advantage. The Su-30’s and “Flying Leopards” could be very capable of delivering a tactical device against a USN CBG. Planners would “hope” that their enemy is a bunch of clowns, but I wouldn’t organize around that principle.

Number

Where is the tactical number? Doesn’t the presence of that signify squadron service?

Better Photos

I, personally, need to see better photos of a completed prototype. Preferably next to something of known proportions to give it some scale.

Longer than that…

I think it will be a decade before we see the J-31 ready for export and in service with the PLAAF. Designing and flying a prototype is one thing, mass production and marketing is another. The Chinese had similar problems when developing the J-6. The first few aircraft came out alright, but as soon as production ramped-up there were scores of defects which lead to the PLAAF rejecting the first batches. That was a licensed-built MiG-19, with little electronics and not an indigenous stealth fighter. Though, I do feel as if much of the tech for the J-31 could have been liberated from unsecured LM Windows XP computers (that is my opinion, not a claim).

JF-17, Gripen, and to a lesser extent the F-16.

when I say no more F-16 I mean LM will close the Line. from a cost point of view upgraded F-16 will cost quite a lot more than JF-17 also anyone looking to buy old F-16 will need support from the US and in South America that is not always straight forward.

As said JF-17 may be an option for some Counties in the region. F-16 is one of a number of types operated in the region. My opening question was what aircraft do we see Countries buying in the 2015-2035 time frame as when I look at most of the aircraft in operation now this is the time scale I see for there replacement add to this a lot of the F-16’s in this region are early second hand ones they will need replacing in this time frame.

at this time Chili is upgrading there f-16’s which will give them 8000 more flying hours then what will they do ?

I don’t see many more F-16’s flying in that part of the world, even for that time frame. The politics around not selling the F-16 down there may very well, still prevail. Colombia is a good example of this, why will the U.S. not sell them the F-16? I have my suspicions why, but this is not a geopolitical forum. The U.S. has sold them almost everything else (except dedicated attack choppers). Perhaps Argentina will gets some second-hand Mirage 2000’s. They are old, but still younger than what the FAA is flying now. Paraguay and Uruguay will probably continue without a fast-jet operation. The FAP would like to acquire some Super Tucanos, and that could be just as well for the FAU. The Super Tucano will continue to be a big seller in that region and could very well take the place fast-jets once held.

Peru’s fleet of MiG-29’s have just been upgraded, they’ll be around for awhile. After all, they flew the Su-22 for decades before retirement. I hope Brazil purchases the Gripen for their front line fighter, but I can see more, upgraded Mirage 2000’s as well. The 2016 olympics are going to be held in Brazil, so that could divert funds from any purchase.

Here here

Happy and safe holidays to all, who are not able to be with their families this season.

JF-17

I can see Argentina and Venezuela obtaining the JF-17 for their air forces. The AMBV already has the K-8 in service along with the Y-8. Once they figure out the Su-30’s are very expensive to maintain, the JF-17 will look like a nice proposition for replacing the F-5’s and even the F-16’s. Argentina is license-producing the Z-11 helicopter and already has industrial ties with China.