I do think there will come a point when the U.S. Military will not have it’s huge budgets. Even though the trend is to never cut defense in the U.S., older types will not be replaced in equal numbers. Old F-15’s and F-16’s will not be equated by the F-22 and F-35. The USN will most-likely do the same regarding legacy hornets.
Drones will play a larger part in future air operations. The types in service now, that we know about, do not match their manned counterparts in capability in many respects. A bunch of Predators will not be able to secure an area of operations, today. In 20 years a smaller fleet of X-47s could. Manned recon and surveillance will become a small trade. Right now, there are no plans to replace the E-3’s or the E-6’s. Those airframes cannot fly forever, though we may see B-52 longevity there.
The tanker mess will have to be sorted out, at a great financial detriment to the taxpayer, if current strategies are to be maintained. IMHO, that is the great priority in replacement. The world economy cannot justify the expense in something like the F-35 for many NATO countries. That leaves the Gripen NG, The Typhoon, Rafale, and perhaps the FA-50 as options, none of which are cheap either. Some view fighter aircraft as a resource that is costly but seldoms returns on that investment. A nation wouldn’t want that type of return because it would mean war, but paying for peace, in these economic climates, is hard to justify. Perhaps leases and joint purchases will become more common?
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