Interesting news…
That map looks ridiculous, with all the blue areas to the west,
but not even the internal seas between mainland and Ciclades is blue…
What happens after you pass between Crete and Kythira, much less between mainland and Peloponessus (!?) π
Ahaha! Ridiculous??? Our goverment was afraid to confront Gaddaffi, you think they would confront Turkey? After the 1987 greek-turkish crisis, the PMs of the 2 countries did an oral “gentlemen’s agreement” that neither will search for oil until the limits of the continental shelf between the 2 countries are delimitated. Confronting Libya is a huge step forward!
Anyway, anything in the Cyclades is out of the question, the islanders would sabotage any search. From what we know, there is an almost certain oil field at about 10 nm east of Thassos island. In Greece currently there are only some small ones within 6 nm from Thassos that are exploited.
http://energean.com/Prinos?la=en
Another confirmed field is at the sea outside Katakolo, SW Peloponese. And probably northwestern Greece, at borders with Albania. Other areas are rumoured to be in eastern Aegean, but not so sure. South of Crete there are strong indications for gas, not oil. I hope the gov will give licences for that too.
BTW, the saga of Skaramanga seems to continue… Any solid info is always interesting to hear.
I don’t know what to tell you… It never ends. Last i read was that now it’s Safa quarelling with the Germans.
So what parts of HAF will be shelved when Greece goes under?
– Short answer:
Less than you imagine i suspect… I am more concerned about what may be cut BEFORE 2013-14 (when Greece will default), than after… Because after the haircut, there will be a big relief to the budget and hope to return to growth. You see, we are bankrupt in the sense that we can’t pay for interests and part of capital of loans (although the goverment keeps saying otherwise trying to convince people to accept the measures). And the more they give us, the more this grows bigger. To put it simpler, would you rather default with debt 120% (the one before getting saved) or 160%? (the one we will have once “saved”). And will you be better off trying to live with debt at 160% (like we do now) or after a 50% haircut?
– Long answer (if you ‘re lazy it’s not for you):
The completely bad scenario is the case where the 200.000 angry Greeks that gathered the other day outside the parliament, decide to get in, causing unexpected default that will wreak havoc in EU, effectively destroying the eurozone or elect to the goverment the comunist party or some other lunatic that will decide to go back to the drachma overnight. Then we will shelve the kites too.
A member of the parliament with the ruling socialist party said today to the greek tv that there is an agreement between the greek gov and the EU to move the debt from the privates to the states and postpone the default by 3 years. I suspect that a similar plan holds for Ireland and Portugal too. Portugal is actually the milder case. Probably the plan is that by then, all will have sanitized their economies well enough to be able to go on without outside loans from the markets (for example greek economy is supposed to be at 0 deficit or surplus) or in the worst case, to be able to have surplus after the haircut as to not having the need for market loans anyway. Probably they hope that this will prevent any panic spreading in the markets. This also explains why no banks really want to contribute to a new greek loan, since they know that in 2014 Greece will “surprisingly” fail and restructure. And despite what all banks say (including greek ones that are walking zombies right now), they are not as healthy as they want to appear, so they try to avoid even the smallest loss…
The main problem for Greece in case of default will be her banks and the reaction of the people to an attempt to help those that will not be ready yet. This is temporary, you recapitalize them once. Passed that point, the situation will probably be better than it is today for HAF.
In the EU right now, there is an orgy of lies, threats and intimidation of the politicians to cover their true goals.
1) Greek gov officially won’t ever restructure the debt (keeps saying so), but will make it out of this by sanitizing the economy. Unofficially, according to the parliament member, they ‘ve already agreed on when to default.
2) Greek gov tells on every occasion “accept the measures or we won’t have money to give you for wages or pensions”, while that’s not true. It can be partially true, if instead of that, they decide to recapitalize the banks. Of course the population may not be of the same opinion with them…
3) EU keeps saying that Greece won’t default and that’s saving Greece. Now seems they ‘ve all agreed on when the default will occur, because you can’t save someone who overspent his credit card by giving him 2 new credit cards.
4) Officially, Greece won’t restructure its debt, but Germany is desperately trying to put some banks in the new loan so that they can “save” Greece too = lose some money after the haircut too. The banks are so confident of the success of the new loan that can’t wait their turn to partecipate in the new loan… The german population is suspicious too that the saving plan isn’t going to work, so rightfully, doesn’t want to give new loan. But Merkel can choose between selling again the “salvation story” or exiting the euro. So she sells the story and in 2014 she will simply say “Who would have imagined that Greece wouldn’t make it! No wonder they were in the PIGs!”. At the same time the greek goverment will say to the population “Oh dear, we must restructure to our great surprise. But cheer up, this means less burdon from debt and we ‘ve lowered the deficit, we ‘ve sold out the family silver for pennies, but it’s all right”.
5) USA, has her own banks in bad shape and pressures Germany to go ahead with or without private investors, the important is to bring the 3 “grenades” more in the future hoping that by then the banks will be ready. And doesn’t want a “credit event”, because US banks will have to pay CDS. So Obama is yet another supporter of “saving” Greece.
6) In all this, here and there some EU politician comes out and threatens the Greeks to be good boys and accept the new measures because “solidarity has limits” (damn right it has, 2013 or 14, but threatening now is a ridiculous bluff).
7) China, doesn’t want any turmoil in euro area, because she bases her growth on exports to eurozone.
For the above reasons:
– Although Greece reduced deficit by 5% and in March was congratulated by Merkel to the point that she reduced by 1% the loan interests (reduction that is already being cancelled by the increase in ECB rates), suddenly in May they discover that Greece is about to fail again and they want also 50 bln in privatizations. What happened to the “Greece is going well”? In 2 months it did so badly that 50 bln are needed and soon after a new loan? π Also instead of rating the spreads improving, they all worsened? Could it be because you can’t save someone indebted by giving him more credit cards? (I ‘ve appendicitis doctor. Good, i will save you by cutting your leg).
– The 50 bln of privatizations (i doubt they will reach 30) is nothing more than a way for German companies and the other countries’ companies to get at ridiculously low prices some greek state enterprises and assets , as compensation for the haircut that will happen later.
Oh and there is also my own humouristic-apocalyptic scenario:
December 2012. 500.000 Greeks, protesting outside the greek parliament, can’t understand anymore, as to why they have to endure recession and cuts and wait for 2014 to do debt restructuring. The goverment story of “this plan really works, it really does!”, doesn’t cut it anymore. They storm the parliament, establish revolutionary goverment and declare halting of payments to all external debt (Argentina style, that 10 years later her creditors are still in courts hoping to get a penny back). The rest will be something worse than this:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100010332/what-happens-when-greece-defaults/
At that point, the Mayans from the grave will shout “It’s the economy, stupid!” π
No need for HAF at all then… It will be the end of civilization as we know it. :diablo:
Bottom line: In a “controlled default”, HAF will be better after than before.
In an uncontrolled default, what HAF will do is the last concern that every logical person should have. Having a house up in the mountain with a vegetable garden, dog and shotgun will be much more useful. π
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