AspisHere, we go… As soon as the Mirage paper leaked, the empire strikes back. Dennis Plessas of LM, organized press conference where:
– States, that if Greece waits to order the F35 in 2016, the price will be 60 million $ per aircraft, because by then the many orders will have dropped the price.
– Proposes again, the upgrade of all F16s to B52+ advanced and with discounted price: 900 mln euros instead of 1,2 bln which was the previous offer. According to him, making the upgrade is of “imperative operational importance”. 😀
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15029&Itemid=46
In addition, in a lesson of marketing from which everyone should learn something (yes Dassault, i am speaking of you), after the display on Thessaloniki’s Defensys exposition, a cockpit simulator of the F35, will be transported to 110 Combat Wing at Larissa AB (which also happens to be HAF’s Tactical Air Command) and be left there for “a period of time”, so that greek pilots will have the opportunity to get acquainted with the F35 at their leasure.
(info from Defencepoint.gr
).
Yes, we ‘re bankrupt, but they insist, not my fault!
AspisFrom mother Lockheed:
The delivered aircraft is the first of a new family of advanced Block 50/52 F-16s that have been ordered by several countries. The total change introduced by the new Greek version is, in many ways, the largest in the history of the F-16 program. Other major changes occurred at Block 25 (the first F-16C/D models, delivered in 1984), Block 40/42 (first delivered in 1988) and the original Block 50/52 (first delivered in 1991).
Key features of this advanced Block 52 version for Greece include:
– APG-68(V)9 multimode radar – significant increase in detection range, highly accurate synthetic aperture radar (SAR) mode, and large increases in growth and reliability. SAR capability allows autonomous delivery of precision, all-weather, standoff weapons.
– New core avionics centered on the latest version of the modular mission computer – most capability available for fighter aircraft today, with large growth potential, plus high reliability and maintainability.
– Modern cockpit – color flat-panel multifunction displays, night vision imaging system compatibility – provides high pilot situation awareness in complex air battle situations.
– Helmet-mounted cueing system – enhanced pilot situation awareness and employment of high-off-boresight weapons, both air-to-air and air-to-ground.
– IRIS-T high off-boresight air-to-air missile – lethality and survivability in the dynamic, multibogey air combat environment.
– ASPIS internal electronic countermeasures suite (full provisions) – high survivability with low impact on flight performance.
– On-board oxygen generating system (OBOGS) – improved maintainability, deployability and safety.
– Conformal fuel tanks and 600-gallon wing tanks – greatly extended mission range and persistence, plus increased payloads and stores flexibility.
– F100-PW-229 engine – proven high thrust, reliability, maintainability, durability, safety, operability and life-cycle costs.
– Missionized rear cockpit for weapon system operator and dorsal avionics compartment (two-seat model) – doubles as special mission capability version and fully combat-equipped operational trainer.
http://www.lockheedmartin.com/news/press_releases/2002/FirstAdvancedLockheedMartinF16Produ.html
The next batch we got (which we called “B52+ Advanced”), has in addition:
– Better Link16 integration.
– Increased processing power for the MMC.
– Projection of moving colour map on CMFD display for navigation.
– Full integration of JHMCS with implementation of new operational capabilities of IRIS-T.
– Integration of Lantirn with the flight control system.
– Digital registration system (DVR) from the HUD and targeting pod with advanced ground debriefing system.
– Ability of using Recce Pod in all altitudes.
– Ability right off the shelf to use JDAM and JSOW.
Taken from greek blog that quotes magazine article:
http://anaxfiles.blogspot.com/2009/03/f-16-block-52-advanced.html
AspisLol, ok, it was too good to be true.
The greek islands are better off with solar and geothermic power stations. Actually this is yet another sector of “lost opportunities” in Greece and an example of how a country can make money and but… doesn’t…
In a country with sunshine 300 days a year and with many Aegean islands with geothermic potential at very shallow depth (after all Santorini is the remaining of a vulcanic eruption), instead of filling every uninhabited islet and non turistically visible hill with solar panels or geothermic plants, the islands receive power from the mainland through undersea power cables, who occasionally get damaged and the islands run on power generators (those that can) for days until the cable is repaired. Much smaller investment and it would be an opportunity of building them in Greece (it’s not that hitech).
Greece should bribe some turkish politician millions so that Turkey buys 200 typhoons or Gripens.
Then buy 50 Rafales.
Unlike greek politicians, Erdogan has big national ambitions, it’s more probable that he can bribe ours that ours to bribe him. His current FM, who is also his advisor since the start, in his 2003 book, envisages Turkey being not a regional power, but in the world’s top 10 powers by 2020. I don’t know if they will make it, in economy they sure do well. But the point is, if you ask our politicians, their dream is to… win the next elections. Not to mention that in Greece there is “globalization-multiculturalism” hysteria, so if you speak about “national dream”, everyone will accuse you of being a right wing extremist. In the middle of the crisis, our PM actually said “we must move towards global goverment as soon as possible”. I mean, really, your country is in trouble and all you can think of is “global goverment”? I see every country working for her interests, i didn’t see any phantomatic global goverment working for the greek interests.
Seriously. Our politicians don’t even realize that they undermine the “deterrent” , because there is no credibility that we will ever use force. Example is exactly the exclusive economic zone. Cyprus, is actively working to delimitate hers with all neighbours. And is stepping on Turkey’s foot… Cyprus asked to delimitate it with us too. We denied, so that we wouldn’t bother Turkey. So, we have the surreal situation, where tiny Cyprus is using her political moment to do something, based on the fact that Turkey still wants to get into EU, while Greece, with much better army than Cyprus, doesn’t dare to sign agreement with Cyprus… This is when your deterrent, becomes void and it may actually backfire, into encouraging someone to do things that normally wouldn’t. This is yet another reason of why it is futile to buy ultraexpensive fighters. To what end? Turkish ships may enter Piraeus harbour and then turn back to Turkey and we won’t react. This year we heard that our PM ordered HAF to do BVR interceptions. 2 turkish research vessels went for seismic survey (one exactly in the area between Greece and Cyprus and inside our claimed continental shelf) and all we did was sent a coast guard vessel to watch. This isn’t deterrent. It is a bad joke. Even if an island was to be invaded, probably our politicians would order the local army officer to stand down, until he verifies that they are well onto the beach and not just half way and still in the water.
AspisFinally some creativity, create work that turn into productive electricity generation during peace, that dual serve as a deterrent that can only ever become a threat if attacked.
Even if suppose that such a deterrent is politically acceptable and that the TuAF has some kind of obbligation to strike that plant instead of… bypassing it, there is still one problem: What if the wind is blowing towards the west… We will transform the entire Greece in nuclear dumpster.
So, if you have to go “creative” like this and “politically acceptable” isn’t an issue, there is better alternative. Turkey is building nuclear plants. Theoretically, our airforce can make an innocent mistake and bomb them (the Americans call it collateral damage right?) while the wind blows towards the east.
But this is more forum-talk than reality talk. Here we ‘re talking about 1 week crisis probably, during which the greek politicians would rather lose their bank account than order such an action. 😀 The problem with a deterrent is this: in order for a deterrent to be such, the opponent must believe that you will use it. It’s what makes the deterrent credible. Any turkish politicians knows that a greek politician would never order such a thing. So, the deterrent as thought here in the forum, is not really a deterrent.
AspisWhat about to build nuclear power plant in higly contested and vulnerable locations right in front of main turkish coastal towns?
Some form of a static nuclear deterrent…
The greek left would probably occupy the port and block the transport of construction material. 😀
Using such “unconventional” deterrents won’t work due to political outcry. Besides, what Turkey would really want is a change of the status quo in the Aegean in a negotiations table. The real target isn’t the islands themselves, it’s the splitting of the Aegean’s resouces. You put one such plant on an island? They bypass it… An Erdogan’s advisor, named Calin or something said it a few days ago. That we must see how we will share the Aegean. The water is the real deal here and making corridors. The water then controls air and the seabed below. And like Erdogan said, they can lift the casus belli, if we make a declaration, that we renounce the right to expand our waters (but of course). These will also be the real goals at the end of a conflict. Taking some islands, will only serve to creating more space for territorial waters and airspace and seabed. The funniest is when Erdogan said something about “solution based on international law”. Whose law? The one we have signed or the one that they haven’t signed? How can 2 parties agree on the basis of international law, when only 1 of the parties has signed the law of the sea? 😀
In the good scenario, i expect that we will accept bilateral agreement instead of judicial, as Turkey always wanted. Exactly, an agreement, which will be a compromise between the law of the sea from one side and the turkish law of the sea (if you expand your waters i will attack you) on the other.
AspisWhat do you think our politicians are protecting? Their wealth as well. Ordinary Turks or Greeks (and whatever else) are simply casualties.
That’s exactly what i am saying and that’s why greek enthusiasts should stop thinking like enthusiasts or like John Rambo addicts and get into the mindset of how politicians think. Then we will have better deterrence… Of course in our case, the situation is more complicated, since as Erdogan stated yesterday on greek tv, more or less “he doesn’t control the military, he is only suggesting”. So we have to think like politicians and like generals with political agenda. One thing is certain, that our politicians have failed to sort it out and come up with a solid policy.
AspisVideo with the Israelis from greek state tv:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqmTvo70XfA&feature=player_embedded
Aspisgripen squadron wins tigermeet.
http://www.natotigers.org/tigernews/index.php?newsID=115
That “tiger” looks more like a hybrid between a tiger and “Alien”. 😀
AspisHow is the ES 05 Raven radar revolutionary?
I can’t find the exact words of the supposedly greek pilot in the greek forum, but in simple words from what i remember:
In aircraft pubblicity, they advertize the motto “first look, first kill”. This is nice motto, but doesn’t guarantee that you won’t be the second kill of the one you just killed. To explain:
You are flying towards a known target and you fire a BVR missile. You don’t stay in that route while guiding the missile, because you may have shot first, but in that way you keep closing the distance at the fastest possible rate (head on), increasing the probability that the enemy will also fire you a BVR shot. You may kill him first, but his missile may kill you anyway once it goes active.
So, you fire, you then try to change course, while maintaining the target near the lateral limits of your radar cone. Of course the enemy on his part, manouvers too, to counter your manouver. Anyway, ideally, you decrease the closing speed, so once your missile can go active you go “out” , i.e., you try to disengage from the battle and doing so, you spoil the envelope of the incoming missile. With a fixed antenna, your ability to do so is limited.
With Swashplate AESA, that can turn 100 degrees on its axis, you can fire, immediately change course to much bigger angle, effectively flying away from the target, while still guiding your own missile towards your target thanks to the flexibility of your radar. So the target, still tries to close the distance to you to fire back, but, obviously, the closing speed is much less compared to when you fly towards him with a fixed antenna.
Basically, the issue isn’t just to do “first shot, first kill”, but “first shot and that’s the only shot that there will be”. As a bonus, putting your own aircraft at 90 degress towards an incoming missile is one of the best positions to dodge the missile.
AspisCan’t the F-16 and Mirage 2000 already do stand off? I think the UAE configers their aircraft for that. Typhoon probably too!
what other aircraft will be planned to use a swashplate type aesa radar?
Well, the F4E can also do standoff , even more now that we have good relations with Israel (we could get Popeye too).
(Greek FM in Israel yesterday. Do you think it’s love? :p I ‘ve never seen anywhere before, our FM to be offered wine in front of the photographers:
http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/6484/96528914.jpg )
But you can’t fly them forever. The same goes for F16s and the discussion goes back to what i said about why i prefer Gripen over F16. It’s a step forward. Even more, i really see no big benefit of the Typhoon or Rafale against a F35, given the costs. The Typhoon has been reported twice in greek media as having 3 times the cost per flight hour compared to F16. Coincidence. UK had warned that won’t proceed to new Tranche, unless they reduce the costs. Coincidence. Der Spiegel, even if we take the absolute numbers as useless, because we don’t know what the Germans include in “cost per flight hours”, reported that it costs twice the cost the Tornado, which was the most expensive in the german fleet already. I mean, the Germans must include the same things in the Tornado costs. Coincidence? Where there is smoke there is fire. The way i see it, the Gripen brings advantages of both EF and Rafale (supercruising and MICA IR), while keeping costs at F16 level. Oh, and they give swashplate AESA (the Typhoon only God knows when and how much more they will charge for it). Of course the Rafale is a known story with french prices, so no need to go further into that. If the upgrade of the Mirage costs insane money, who knows how much the upgrade of Rafale will.
From the EADS pubblicity in Greece about the “F35 killer”, they ‘ve said 2 things: 1) Detection via Pirate, 2) that is capable of shooting at the F35 at max range maintaining a 30 deg course compared to the F35.
– Gripen NG has IRST too. And even more, it can it better with MICA IR.
– Gripen NG will have swashplate AESA right off the shelf, which can actually make it easier to illuminate a target from different angle than trying to manouver to perfection every time.
All this at low price. What i would miss, is the ability of Spectre to guide the missile, but, even there, there is the question of what if the Spectra can’t get stable signal because of the LPI radar of the F35.
If money wasn’t an issue and wanted more political offsets, i ‘d get the Rafale, simply because while the Typhoon started with high expectations, it proved to have a “monolithic” mentality in its development, while the Rafale has shown more flexibility in sensors and weapons. In greek fora we all used to praise the Typhoon and give the Rafale as certain of staying an unevoluted fighter, yet now it will get AESA before the Typhoon does and the French have integrated in the best way the sensors and weapons to work together. The Typhoon is an example of the british proverb “2 cooks spoil the broth” (in this case 4 cooks). Politically, there is no gain to expect from the Typhoon. At least France has backed up Greece once or twice during Sarko.
btw – Has the Athens government ever contemplated moving towards hovercraft for island defense. Imagine a fleet of rapid hovercraft with modern weaponry sweeping around an invasion force and cutting off both it’s SLOC and retreat.
In Greece there is a saying: “Greece isn’t just Athens”. This saying exists, because usually greek goverments only care about Athens. If you ask me, yes, Greece should have long ago more hovercrafts and more transport helicopters. 3 Zubrs (the 4th is K.O.) aren’t enough. Theoretically civillian vessels can be confiscated by the state in case of need, but hovercrafts provide different capabilities. There is intention of buing US hovercrafts for the marines, but as to when this will happen, i don’t know. If you also look as to how the long and medium range SAMs are deployed, you will see that they are there to protect the mainland, while the eastern islands are covered only by Sa-8 and Stingers mainly. Again, for me it is obvious, that Greece should have put mobile medium range SAMs to cover the most eastern islands, not quite for providing cover to the island themselves, as shorads can take care of helicopters, but to give a hand to HAF.
AspisAspis, how concerned is the HAF about the impending F-35 threat? Do you believe that a Gripen NG can adequately deal with the F-35 threat for the coming 20-25 years? And I mean a real threat of a war over resources, rather than just dogfighting and chasing away intruders. Sure, the Meteor is a big addition to the Gripen NG’s arsenal, but how confident are you about TuAF F-35s being truly deterred by the Gripen NG?
I have read nothing about what HAF thinks of the F35, other than generic journalistic thoughts of the type “let’s see it first and then we can speak”.
Personally, i could care less about how the Gripen deals with the F35. Turkey already will pay something like 15 bln for 100 F35 and they want more. The greek population, won’t tollerate similar expenses. This is what i am trying to say. Greece must go to 2nd option. The best deterrent is the ability to strike turkish infrastructure, not stopping the F35. The Gripen can do that. Stand off munition can do that. Long range artillery on islands can do that. Naval missiles that can hit also ground targets can do that.
Besides, there are 1000 islands in the Aegean, some 250 are inhabited. The best “victory” for Greece, is deterrent so that war won’t start at all. Otherwise, you think that a garisson the size of a platoon can hold an island of 50 inhabitants like Agathonisi against an airborne helicopter assault?
In order to protect say 200 islands from a minor assault, you ‘d need at least 150 men= 30.000 men. From a major assault, this isn’t enough. If we count the non inhabited, then it’s out of the question. So the best deterrence, as ancient greek historians were suggesting, is to make sure that the damage will be superior to the gains. And i don’t mean “kill many Turks”. This means nothing to cynical politicians. It means “destroy their wealth”. And most of the wealth is along the coast. Anyway, as long as Turkey still wants to get in the EU, only by accident or by turkish generals’ plan something can occur. And right now, seems more problematic the situation in eastern mediterranean, because there are probable natural gas and oil pockets in the seabed right there.
http://favoritearea.com/petroleum-geo-services-explain-offshore-eastern-mediterranean
As an ex greek MoD once said “I pray to God that there is not a drop of oil in the Aegean seabed, because i fear we won’t avoid war”.
And in October 2008, the turkish Navy Chief, Metin Atac, stated “I think that the eastern Mediterranean will become center of conflict, because it will soon acquire importance. Because of the oil it has, it will be transformed into 2nd persian gulf. Turkey must remain vigilant and ready to react”.
Why because of this (the concessions are areas given to foreign companies for research):
http://img191.imageshack.us/i/68332682.png/
(the funny is that exclusive economic zones are theoretical, because not all neighbours have agreed. For example Cyprus and Israel have agreed, the others not. The pockets in the possible Israeli are the ones that will provide the gas that the Israelis dream of exporting to Europe one day). Already the fact that turkish and cypriots concessions overlap, isn’t good. It means, that if there is something there, Turkey and Cyprus will both say it’s “theirs”. Of course, according to the law of the sea, it can’t be of “both”. Luckily Turkey hasn’t signed the Law, so this shouldn’t be a problem for her.
And this is the greek and cypriot position on how the exclusive economic zones should be (with islands having their own) and how Turkey wants (lower picture). Basically Turkey denies that the small greek island south of her should have any exclusive economic zone and also wants to “squeeze” the cypriot one.
http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6151/aozjpg.jpg
This is also a reason of why F16 B52 are in Crete, should Cyprus have some “hot incident”.
As for the Aegean itself, it’s even more “uncharted territory”. We have a small oil reserve in northern Aegean inside territorial waters. Those who have done more surveys are the Americans (in 1973 and found something, and it’s when the greek-turkish relations in the Aegean start to deteriorate) and the French.
The NATO will “come”. Yes, if something ignites over there or some turkish general decides another coup plan to take out the islamists, the NATO countries will probably support according to which companies will exploit the reserves. That’s how things are. “Oh, can the world be so cynical and filthy?” Yes, it can.
AspisIf Greece is not able to match Turkey in numbers then there is no point in getting the early typhoons which are optimized for A2A only. How about Gripen NG with something like the S 400.
Greece and especially the Army, must update its doctrine. It’s obsolete. In fact, they just discovered it themselves. The Army has been studying the turkish “Sledgehammer” plan in the part that predicted land invasion of the northern part of Evros region and according to Defencenet, they give it good possiblity of success, because that was a part with neglected defence (because no major city is in the area if you ask me and didn’t think that it would be of any value.).
The islands are too many to be protected. The issue is to protect the big ones. In this, one island should give more cover to others and help airforce and navy. Which means, more Shorads and coastal missile batteries. This is something that the Army has done only superficially so far. They ‘ve been planning with Korean War era mentality. Of course, part of the problem is also that the planning was often altered by the wishes of the politicians, who were bribed adeguately in order to have a “plan”.
So, for starters, the politicians should stop the bribes. The new MoD is already very wealthy on his own and i trust can’t be bribed. But he has to withstand the lobbies. Then, especially the Army, must review its dogma and start cooperating more and taking into account more the navy and the airforce, as well as the fact that we have islands and we are already on them. Then buy accordingly. It would lead to much better results.
AspisWe have that topic, because the British have to adjust themselves to their new economical reality.
UK Defence Review Part III ( 1 2 3 4 5 … Last Page)
Here the people “buy” weaponary if there is not an even more worse economical reality to face. 😡
Now, here people don’t buy anything. I am not Papandreou and i sure hope you ‘re not Merkel. Here people talk about HAF news and what HAF wants. When we will buy, i will clarify it. What the new MoD has ordered so far, is in this list, where USA and Germany take the lion share, but overall, they are contained expenses (i am bored to translate, ευρώ=euro, so you can take a calculator and add numbers).
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14710&Itemid=99999999
A serious question is how reduce the Hellenic Air Force to a size to bear by the Greece tax-payer and to have still some deterrence from it, before the NATO comes to help. Small countries have to be smart at first. 😉
The number of aircrafts is bound to reduce itself for the simple fact that we can’t replace old gen fighters with new in 1:1. HAF at some point in the past had close to 350 fighters. Since then, the non upgraded F4 are out, 50 of the 100 A7 are now in reserve (hence non fully active) and other 50 will follow. The upgraded Phantoms, will be retired in 2020 at the latest, the RF4E possibly even earlier, the F16 B30 and non upgraded Mirage again around 2020.
Do you think that HAF will buy new aircrafts to cover all this? I agree that small countries have to think smart, that’s why i hope for Gripen to be the next fighter and not the ultraexpensive Typhoon or Rafale. Unfortunately, seems that neither EADS nor Dassault want to back off to lighten the burdon of the greek tax-payer, they both hired new lobbyists in Greece…
NATO “comes” to help? Comes where? You will get in your jets to fight one of your allies? Please… NATO and EU will “fight” in the diplomatic corridors… Luckily for us, greek politicians will go to extreme measures of appeasement before this becomes a possibility. And as a matter of fact, i only expect France to back Greece diplomatically should it become necessary. US has too many interests in Turkey. Germany sees Turkey as the big market and energy hub she is and is already compromised by the large number of Turks in Germany that would wreak havoc.
AspisI don’t really see the point of a Gripen NG purchase, I’d keep Mirages until I see what Turkey does with the next fighter. No need to do it before Turkey gets F35, and then maybe it would be better to source T-50s from Russia.
Nic
Don’t worry. If we get all 62 arab Mirage with money of the 2010-15 program, then means the Gripen will use money from the 2015-20 program.
Besides, Greece can’t maintain the arms race like in the past. Turkey is much bigger country, bigger economy, Greece must get out of the mentality of “you buy 1 , i buy 1) and do the next best thing (i buy something that will make you pay dearly an eventual victory of yours). The Gripen NG low cost, will allow for more platforms and ultimately weapons. With the money saved from purchasing the cheaper Gripen, Greece can get more SCALP, which will probably be better deterrent.
Greek politicians don’t dare buy russian aircraft. They would meet the wrath of both Europeans and American vendors and they don’t have the stomach to do it.
AspisI really love the idea of greece buying the 62 Mirage 2000-9. But I really hope that Dassault could provide a standardization package for the whole fleet of HAF Mirages for cheap enough.
Who knows… First, what HAF wants, is one thing. What the politicians will do, is another… The good thing about this HAF idea, is that it’s also the most economical and this may prevail over the political criteria since our politicians are now on a very tight spot and want to save their chairs.
But I just had a new idea that could be interesting. If Greece buys Rafales in the future, maybe Dassault could add in the package the related know how to upgrade the M2k, and the remaining production tools and ToT to make the M2k relevant alongside a future fleet of Rafales as a high-lo mix.
Say buy 24-30 Rafale F4 in five years and we sell you for cheap the expertise to upgrade and maintain Mirages independantly. As well as offering Greece to market upgrades for other Mirage 2000 users (India comes to mind), while Dassault focuses on Rafale, Neuron etc…
Nic
It will all depend on who will buy HAI. It will be like Skaramanga. You buy HAI? You get airforce contracts. So if Dassault buys HAI (minority or majority package, doesn’t matter), we will most likely get Rafale at some point. And then, the main concern of the gov will be that the workers will have work and the main concern of HAF will be to be able to get maintenance locally.
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