AspisWith spectra you can do just the same as long as the enemy fighter is trying to find you on radar, but even completely running away from the oponent; Or you can let the Erieye or ground/sea based radars do the job. Swashplate is like adapting 3rd gen technology to fight the fifth gen war. Really unnecessary.
To be honest, if we had the money, i would prefer to do an exchange of the Mirage with Rafale. But we don’t… The Erieye can coordinate some interceptions, but there is saturation on this too, as well as possible link jamming or shooting down the Erieye itself.
I love this idea.
Me too. It resolves many problems with just 1 move.
I disagree, a M2000-9 buy makes much more sense if under a low budget.
Nic
Yes, what i am saying is take the arab Mirage and later get Gripen. Before the US crisis, Greece had 3-4% growth every year. With the reforms that are being done now, growth should at least return to these rates around 2015. The liberalization of the “closed professions” alone, is calculated to give 1% GDP growth per year (2.5 billion euros). Greece is full of economic aberrations, that once lifted and if hopefull tax evasion is hit, should bring the economy to funtion much better than before.
AspisIt`s a fighter that will improve Greece`s capacity in the Aegean AND lets the government spend the remainder on urgent civilian needs. Realistically, upgrading the EGMs will not and should not ever happen given the budget situation, and this would ensure that those plans are abandoned, which is for the best…
Yes, if the figures given by Defencenet are accurate, the arab Mirage come considerably cheaper than the cost of upgrading our EGMs. Besides, i have the feeling that our Mirage have taken much more beating than the arab ones, since we use them daily and over sea, which isn’t very healthy to aircrafts.
Selling off HAI just makes me think of Skaramanga and it`s current situation. 😎
Oh, dear, don’t remind me of Skaramanga. That soap opera continues. Abu Dhabi Mar backed off in the last minute (days before the final signing), because there is no official document of the EU that she won’t pay the fine yet, because there is a tax fine of 20 mln pending on shipyards and because they want assurances that the current legal investigation about the bribery that Ferrostaal did won’t bring new fine on the shipyards (and the goverment can’t promice that). So the arab shareholders stepped back and seems another company “Prive Invest” or something, which owns 30% of Abu Dhabi Mar will get the Skaramanga (the owner is Safa, the same person who was negotiating on behalf of Abu Dhabi Mar).
If it were to be sold, I think that explicitly linking it to the future fighter purchase (i.e. within the comparison of fighters, including their price tag) is the best approach… Not simply selling it to whomever bids highest (instead just give it a fixed price), but based on the best ToT and workshare (including future projects). …In other words, more like how India or Brazil are running their fighter competitions, just using the purchase of HAI as the vehicle for ToT. I don`t know if SAAB could buy it under those conditions…?
As you point out, selling independently for the highest price is just a vehicle for manufacturers to manipulate Greece`s fighter purchases.
And I don`t see why Lockheed wouldn`t also be an interested in such an arrangement…
Yes, just like the Skaramanga are sold with a “dowry” (more subs), if HAI is sold, probably there will be commitment to buy the aircraft of the new owner. SAAB buying HAI is the best chance i see that may lead Greece into buying Gripen. But others may beat Saab to that…
Beyond the next fighter selection, I think any future manned fighters in Europe will involve all the major builders, i.e. no European competition. Once Rafale and Gripen`s sales prospects are concretized a bit more (and presuming Dassault has some success exporting Rafale, e.g. Brazil and UAE at least), I could even see Dassault and Thales buying SAAB. Whoever buys HAI would only be expecting favorability in future projects like UAVs, which I guess isn`t the worst price to pay.
Well, i HOPE that there will be no European competition next time. I hope they learnt their lesson. Everyone has his own toy now and all are struggling to export.
Politically speaking, Gripen could be seen as favored by the EU itself given Greece`s budget is essentially under supervision.
(BTW, I like the avatar)
There is no “favored by EU” when it comes to weapons. Each vendor is for himself in this. The French want to sell theirs, the German their own… Everyone will frown if we don’t get theirs… But yes, better than giving contract to the US for example.
The IMF ensures indebted countries continue to pay their debts, so that bankers don’t lose their money. They ‘re good at it and they have the know-how of how to do it (something that both Greek politicians and EU lacks). And while in Greece it is demonized as being the absolute evil, it actually wants 3% interest only and has shown much more realism and seriousness than our EU partners. Between our loan sharks, they ‘re the best and in addition, you have a loan shark who is actually interested in giving you technical advice on how to become debt-free again.
AspisWhat you said makes sense the Gripen is indeed the newer design. I was only suggesting the later block F 16 because of Greece’s Financial woes and the already existing infrastructure for the same.
Yes, the F16 is even cheaper, but at some point HAF MUST make the next step to a new fighter. And Strauss-Kahn already said that the IMF is ready to give more time to repay the loan , if the EU does the same and if the greek gov survives the 2011 without revolution, i think we will be able to afford the Gripen allright. Besides, have you seen the payment options that the Swedes gave to Serbia? They ‘re very flexible.
The bad scenario is if the EU denies to make the repayment period longer. In this case, even if Greece successfully reaches the plan targets, she won’t make it. Because the loans are with 5% interest (3% those to IMF), which is too high and are concentrated in 2014-15, which means, that while Greece is paying every year 50 bln till 2012, in 2014 and 15, will have to pay 70 billion each year, which in an economy that will be just coming out of a recession, won’t be possible. Practically, the operation will be successful (Greece concludes the stability plan) , but “the patient died”.
So Strauss-Kahn has proposed to repay the loans in 5 years, in order to “dilute” the burden for each year. This is the only way that Greece will make it without doing debt restructuring. In different case, Greece will proceed to debt restructuring, which will be much easier to do once the deficit is very low, foreign banks will lose some money and the greek politicians will end up running to the airport to get the first flight to Germany, since the whole “doing cuts” thing is supposed to do so that we won’t make debt restructuring. And those who have paid the crisis so far, are the economically weaker (pensioners and those on salary), who got 25% income reduction (or more) and now there is talk of a second wave of 10-20% cuts. While the mega-tax evaders till now, have only been hit through VAT and fuel tax increase. Actually the goverment, instead of restructuring the tax collecting offices, left them for months without new directors and now that the IMF said “you need to hit tax evasion”, they can’t do it, so all they did was offer “amnesty” to the evaders (pay a fixed price and you close all pending cases of the last years, you can even burn your accounting books).
Those who were the most innocent or weren’t evading taxes are those who get hit the most once more, there’s already anger that no politician will go to jail and so if they manage to fail again, they ‘d better run like the wind to the airplane before they get caught by the crowd.
But, let’s be optimistic. The IMF is the only one in the whole case that has know-how of doing things and i trust Strauss-Kahn will convince the Europeans too. If the greek gov survives 2011, then by 2012 the economy should return to positive growth and Gripen will be affordable.
AspisThe UAE Mirage scenario is actually right now the best economically speaking. If you take Defencenet’s list as true,
1) Greece resolves the problem of the 20 non upgraded Mirage. They… remain non upgraded and continue to serve till the end of their days doing TASMO as primary task. A dedicated TASMO squadron. This translates to some hundred million euros that remain intact.
2) Even if we take all the Mirage and not just the 32, the price is still inferior to the 2,4 bln which was in the plan for new aircrafts. We can use the money from the spared upgrade for making new facilities in Tanagra to host more aircrafts and there’s still 2.4-1.6= 800mln to spare. I know many ways that in these times such money could help many Greeks.
AspisUAE Mirages seem like the perfect fit with Greece`s existing fleet and weapons, and it`s budget.
Do you know what weapons UAE might include with them?
I don`t see why they would part with any MICA`s or Black Shaheen`s given they can use those on new Rafales.
But who knows…
It doesn`t make sense to sell the -9`s in the first place (certainly not the new builds), so why not include the missiles too?
The article mentions “weapons” in general, no specification. I ‘d certainly not sell the Black Shaheen, but maybe some MICAs as part of the package.
Buying the UAE Mirages would also reinforce Greece`s relations with France, since it`s helping resolve the problem of selling the Mirages which is necessary for UAE to purchase new Rafales. It`s clearly quite understandable why Greece may not want to buy a new relatively expensive new platform like Rafale (or EF), but this continues the relation with France, whose track record in weapons and counter measures is pretty good.
Well, France will get the FREMM contract, so relations continue allright. But i agree, it would further improve things.
Assuming Greece goes with UAE -9`s and Gripen NG for new jets,
it seems possible to negotiate some further benefits from Dassault (who really needs a customer for the UAE jets)
What if Dassault agreed to grant Greece full rights and access to allow Greece itself to upgrade it`s older Mirages, i.e. independent of Dassault? I`m guessing Saab could put together a very cost effective upgrade package, which would bring these jets on par with the Gripen NG or at least -9`s, at least in areas like counter-measures, sensors, and weapon integration. Realistically, Dassault isn`t expecting Greece to ever spring for upgrading these to -5 or -9. Saab could probably even sell the upgrade to other Mirage users like Peru and Egypt. …Science Fiction?
Even getting the Gripen NG is probably science fiction, unless economic criteria prevail over the political ones… I m not sure about Dassault letting SAAB upgrade her aircrafts…
At the least, Greece should try to negotiate SOME side benefit from taking the UAE Mirages off France`s hands, whether better pricing for MICAs and SCALP or even production workshare in Meteor.
Tech transfer and workshare as potentially the launch customer of Gripen NG is obviously a big possibility in that deal as well.
Right now, industrial workshare in anything is a big question mark, as the goverment, wants to sell to privates the defence industry, because, as unbelievable it may be for a country that buys many weapons, all of them are in “red” (losing money). Whether the sale will be complete or 49% or 51% remains to be seen. Theoretically there are scenarios with EADS or Dassault buying HAI to support better their bid for whenever the next gen aircraft will be chosen. Even if the greek gov sells the minority share package or retains the management, as you understand, chances are that the buyer will get contract for the next aircraft, because otherwise the workers will be fired.
Right now the situation is very unclear.
AspisWhy the Preference to the Gripen NG then. Will a Block 70+ F 16 not make more sense since HAF is familiar with the plane.
The F16 is an old design now. No matter how many electronics you put on it, it’s old design.
The Gripen gives:
– Swashsplate AESA. This as the HAF pilot in the forum said, gives big advantage in BVR, because while now you must keep closing to your enemy to guide the missile, at the limits of your radar’s coverage, risking to take response fire yourself, a swashplate allows you to guide the missile while almost flying away from the enemy.
– More flexibility. The Swedes can put any weapon you like, including french. Imagine a combination of Meteor, MICA IR and Iris-T. And you escape the total dependency from US both in weapons and in system.
– Turkey at least as airframe knows the F16 very well. Even if they don’t get later the same block, it will be a “half-known” aircraft. The Gripen will be of unknown capabilities.
– The Swedes with all probability will give better EW suite than the Americans are willing to. (the french have done the same too).
– The F16 is at the dusk of its career. If we order in 2014, will there be an upgrade program for it in 2029 (i take 15 years as best case scenario of the half-life an aircraft has in HAF) and if yes, how much sense will it be to upgrade in 2029 a 1960 design?
The UAE Mirage in the meantime (32 or all doesn’t matter), will allow for the A7 to retire (finally), while doing a smooth transition without new support costs and also with full weapons stock from UAE.
Sadly the chances of actually buying Gripen NG are slim due to politics.
AspisAccording to Defencenet, while there was circulating as an idea amongst HAF officers the purchase of the UAE Mirage, now there is official document which backs up this idea, signed by an ambassador, responsible for the defence diplomacy of the ministry of Defence.
According to Defencenet, UAE is selling at 25 mln per plane and is willing to give 32 + 30 Mirage with their weaponry and support material for 1,6 bln euros.
Of course, Defencenet is horrified at the idea, proposing instead the purchase of 40 Eurofighter T3 with “AESA radar and basic support for 4 bln euros” (and who guarantees that price and what will the subsequent costs be and what about the fact that the procurement program has 2,4bln for aircrafts and not 4…) or used 40 T1 for 1,6 bln (how did Defencenet came up with 1,6 for 40 i don’t know. And of course you buy a 4th gen used aircraft that can’t be upgraded, how clever is that)…
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14927&Itemid=139
I support the purchase of Mirage, it’s a great deal. In the future if budget permits it, one can think of ultraexpensive new fighter types, although my preference is in my signature.
Defencenet claims that buying Mirage will “trap” HAF for 1 decade with 3rd gen aircrafts, since the new aircraft will be postponed. While buying “40 EF T1”, isn’t trapping ourselves with an aircraft that not even their own manufacturers want to upgrade but prefer to buy other tranches and being more expensive. And all this, with the country in economic crisis. Of course, on the top right corner in the mainpage, there is something that may explain things.
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1
I say buy the Mirage and later Gripen NG, which is the cheapest new gen solution. No traps, no money wasted, good numbers, low operational costs. I ‘d rather be trapped with a cheap late 3rd gen aircraft for which there is existant support, than with an early 4th gen, which requires entirely new support, trainning and higher operational costs, only to find that it’s 4th gen but with no further upgrade in it.
AspisIf you’ve ever spent much time in Greece it seems like everything gets covered in black soot in no time. I was told back in the 90’s it’s the air pollution coming from Italy settling in on them. Things get nasty like that in and around the bigger Italian cities, so it might be true. idk
I am not sure it’s the italian pollution responsible for that, it’s known that especially Athens has air pollution from the cars and the industrial zone in the outskirts. Other big cities have more or less some too, but the bases of the F-16s are away from Athens. Actually the Mirage are those closest to Athens, yet they are those who are regularly cleaner.
On the other hand, this is what’s coming from Africa. Granted, this is a big one, but smaller amounts arrive every time there is strong southern wind.
http://img529.imageshack.us/i/89854932.jpg
^ That’s why in some centuries Greece will be like North Africa…
And seen from the ground:
http://img442.imageshack.us/i/13744018.jpg
As if Greece wasn’t already dusty and dry enough. Such clouds can turn your freshly washed car into an abomination within 2 hours and if it rains , you get a sticky mix of sand and local dust/dirt which makes your car look terrible. I presume that when flying into such clouds, you get the same treatment because of the high humidity. If you happen to fly also over a big city with air pollution, things get even worse, as you get both to carbon particles and fine sandy mud to stick on the airframe. Plus, in the last 10 years, we get to see twisters, which were something unknown to Greece and they can also move any kind of dust/terrain and pour it over things.
But honestly, i do think that the dirtier F16 has actually better camouflage…. I am not joking. They blend better with grey sky and also seen with the ground as background (from above). Look how well it blends with the dark colour of the runway.
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/3060/lekkas8.jpg
If it was clean and shiny and always freshly paint, it would look like a fly in a cup of milk and unlike the Mirage, they are supposed to do strike missions too. (well, the Mirage are supposed to launch SCALP, but given the range of the weapon, they really don’t need to fly low).
Also look how well it blends with the mountain behind it:
http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/8786/fazos12.jpg
Compare with this one, which is cleaner and with more fresh paint:
http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/1597/fazos20.jpg
Clearly this one is much more visible…
Anyway, the important is that at least they clean the canopies. If they kept that dirty, it would certainly be a problem. 😀
AspisAnother greek defence magazine, confirmed that in HAF they ‘re interested in buying UAE’s Mirage (it’s actually cover story of the magazine), while the upgrade of F16 Block 30 has priority no.30 in the “to do list”, which for any practical reasons, means that HAF doesn’t care to upgrade them (because all programs with so low priority, never happen).
For what it’s worth, the cover (while in greek, it shows the 2000-9):
http://www.aegispublishing.gr/images/magazine/pdf/isorropia10_10.pdf
So this would be compatible with the original claim of defencenet of wanting the UAE Mirage , while thinking of selling the F16 B30 to Romania. Of course why would USA let Greece sell her F16s instead of selling the US F16s, is a question. The way i see it, we will keep the B30 as they are.
Another issue of course, is that HAF may want UAE’s Mirage. But the money as well as the political decision to do so, is in the hands of the goverment, not HAF…
AspisApparently the Israelis want to give much pubblicity to this exercize (to rub it on the face of Ankara), because they even released a video on youtube about it (it’s uploaded by “idfnadesk”):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSw8AR7oppY&feature=player_embedded
The fallout between the Turks and Israelis are really to Greece’s benefit. If Israeli-Turkish relations continue to worsen then Turkey will be unable to concentrate fully on one front.
Normally Greece could pursue to use the Jewish lobby in USA. But our goverments have no long term strategy to do this. All they care is “be left alone until the next elections, if we appease Turkey we may manage this”.
Greece should have strenghtened political and military ties more with France and India ages ago, but it’s too much to ask to a greek politician who has no plan or interest in national defence. Turkey has military cooperation with Pakistan and now China. Ask a 3 year old child: “In that case, with whom should Greece have?”.
Right now, i am pretty sure that it wasn’t some mastermind greek plot in action that woke up the greek goverment, but rather some phone call from Washington DC saying “Hi George, you ‘ve got to give a hand to the Israelis, they ‘ve found themselves isolated, do what you can”. And our PM, being pro-American to the bone, rushed to execute the request (which fortunately this time could be beneficial to Greece too, but only if we decide to use it in a specific policy, that we don’t have. Because the “conceed and pray” is not a policy.).
In any case, shoud Ankara decide to review her position towards Israel, Israel would return running to the arms of Ankara.
AspisDefencenet got some pictures of the Israelis:
It turns out, that the partecipants were:
– Israeli : 3 AH-64D (+1 in reserve), 3 UH-60 (+1 in reserve).
– Greek: 2 AH-64A+ (+1 in reserve), 1 Super Puma, 6 fighters (F16 B30, B50, B52+, B52+ Adv, Mirage2000EGM) simulating enemy threat, 1 UH-1D
The scenarios were both night and day and included:
1) Landing and take offs in different points along the Peloponnese and coast of Ionian Sea.
2) Simulation of aircraft attacks against helicopters.
3) Escort flights and protection of helicopters by the fighters.
4) Airfield attacks.
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14868&Itemid=139
According to Defencepoint.gr, also 1 F4E was involved as well as 1 Crotale NG (apparently simulating a SAM threat).
And apart the military trainning ground, this is the real interest of Israel towards Greece:
Among the issues reportedly discussed with Pamboukis was the possibility of building an underwater pipeline form Israel to Greece, through which Israel could export natural gas to Europe. Turkey was in the past considered as the logical partner for this pipeline, since it is closer, but the recent strain in relations has forced a re-evaluation of these types of deals with Ankara.
There are natural gas pockets recently discovered in eastern mediterranean, some of which in israeli continental shelf. If Turkey continues to remain hostile, Israel seeks someone else to route her gas.
As for the greek side, IMHO, it’s an attempt to befriend USA and the US Jewish lobby, at least for the time that Turkey doesn’t mend ties with Israel.
AspisThe Supreme Naval Council approved the final configuration of the FREMM. Main points:
1) The Oto Melara 127/64 Lightweight (LW) won’t be used. Instead, it will be used the Oto Melara 76/62 Super Rapid.
2) For self defence, against missiles, the Millenium will be used (probably in 2 points of the ship).
3) Propulsion will be the standard CODLOG that the French use. The CODLAG would give 2 more knots in speed, but is less reliable and requires more maintanance.
4) The propeller will be of steady (regular) “pace” instead of variable. The ship will lose something in agility, but will have reduced acoustic signature.
5) The weapons will be Exocet Block III, Scalp Naval, Aster 30 and MICA VL.
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14794&Itemid=139
AspisIs there any news from chinese media about details about the partecipation of chinese Su-27 in the 1st ever excercize with a NATO member (Turkey) in Anatolian Eagle?
It has been written by a turkish newspaper, mentioned also briefly here
Turkey replaced the Israel Air Force with its Chinese counterpart. China sent Sukhoi SU-27 fighter aircraft and pilots to train with Turkey’s F-16 fighters. In the past these exercises were held in relatively openness, but last week they were held covertly, with only a brief report appearing in the Turkish media after the exercise.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/growing-ties-between-turkey-china-iran-worry-israel-and-u-s-1.317583
, but seems to be a not so “advertized” thing. Greek media if memory serves me said 4 Su-27 partecipated. It makes sense. China’s main rival is India in the region. Turkey and Pakistan are very close, so why not make Turkey-Pakistan-China axis… The Uyghur incident is a small thing in politics, as Turkey can’t have real influence or cause threat to China, so why should China hold a grudge forever… Besides Turkey is a big market.
There seems to have been a significant shift in Turkish foreign policy in recent years. Israeli connection was only good for Israel, so they say.
Not quite. If count the tech transfer alone, it wasn’t good only for Israel. But you have to read the book of the turkish FM to understand the difference between Kemalists and islamists. Right now, the islamists have taken the upper hand in Turkey and are changing many things, that were under the control of the Kemalists for a century. The foreign policy is based on neo-Ottomanism, with islam as a means of connecting with other islamic nations, in order to project Turkey to a prominent position as “leader of the muslims” and include the other countries under her sphere of influence. To that end, keeping the warm relations with Israel that the Kemalists had, would now represent an obstacle. Also the turkish PM likes much dramatic use of speech, in order to make more effect (the turkish relations with Israel in facts, isn’t as bad as words exchanged would imply. And of course the turkish PM at the end didn’t try to go to Israel aboard a ship with aid to the Palestinians).
Ideally, Turkey would like to keep cooperation with Israel, but in way that wouldn’t be seen as negative by other muslim countries. Right now, it seems the turkish army has taken the role of the “diplomat” with the Israelis:
It’s a delicate situation. Muslims like the verbal condemnation of Israel. Turkey gains points with that. On the other hand, Turkey gained much in technology and in the support of the Jewish lobby in the US for many years (for once, the jewish lobby has stopped every year the US goverment from recognizing the armenian genocide).
(AIPAC, the putatively powerful pro-Israel lobby in Washington) has repeatedly petitioned the U.S. Congress not to pass a resolution officially recognizing the Armenian genocide.
http://www.ww4report.com/node/430
In other episodes of past Jewish-Turkish love, in Congress, the Jewish organizations lobbied for an oil pipeline from the Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, a pipeline that bypasses Armenia entirely and serves to isolate it int he region. The Jewish lobby in Washington also helped protect U.S. arms sales to Turkey, on which the Greek lobby often tried to block or impose conditions.
http://ditord.com/2010/06/09/american-jewish-community-ends-support-of-turkish-interests/
So it’s not like Turkey wasn’t gaining anything. But the islamists have their own agenda and they have to cease to be seen as “Israel’s best friend” in the eyes of the other muslims in the region.
Personally i think the turkish-israeli relations will get better. Maybe not as warm as before as long as the islamists are in power, but at least military cooperation can restart.
AspisA programmed greek-israeli CSAR exercize has begun and will last up to Oct. 14. The Israelis are stationed at Andravida airbase.
The official HAF anouncement doesn’t give much detail, it’s only 3 lines, but according to defencenet, the partecipants will have:
– Israeli side: 10 helicopters, consisting of UH-60 and AH-64D.
– Greek side: 6 fighters (HAF) 3 AH-64A+ (Army aviation), 1 UH-1D.
With all probability night operations are also in schedule.
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14766&Itemid=139
I will post pictures if HAF releases any (but last time the Israelis were in Greece, none was released).
P.S.: Interesting note on the recent Israeli interest about making exercizes in Greece: the distance Israel-Greece, is roughly the same as Israel – western Iran. And of course, as long as relations with Turkey aren’t mended, Greece is the only available trainning ground in the “vicinity” for the Israelis.
AspisPhotos from the “Parmenion” 2010 excersize. It is large scale drill, which involves army, navy and airforce:
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