Not exactly news, but worth citing. Now, why is this interesting? The exocet missile was not a typical coastal defense MM-40, but rather a shipborne MM-38, which was removed from retired FACs and installed on land based tracks.

I was amazed when i read about it. With the bureaucracy plaguing the ministry, i would never expect that such a proposal would be approved and given the opportunity to proceed to a functional firing unit.

It must have been a miracle.

Maybe the EU is lucky and someone foreign will take-over the debt ridden Greece.

Ah, my greek-loving friend! I wondered where you were lost! History shows that from time to time, someone does take over Greece. So, hope dies for last. Don’t give up!

What the Second Balkan War has to do with this? Almost 100 years have passed since then…

At first, i thought Hotdog was using “Bulgarians” as “codename” for the Turks. 😀 Then i realised that he is serious. He has a fixation with them, what can you do about it…

The other funny part is that this topic is started by someone called “Hamburger” and revitalized after years by “Hotdog”. 😀

I am afraid you are speaking from the Greek perspective, yet the neighbors often hold something else. You may not remember of the Devteros Valkanikos Polemos but yet in Bulgaria they often teach that everyday and such sentiments remain.

Hotdog, there’s a saying in Greece, that says “On the door of the deaf you can knock as much as you like”. For first and last time i will tell you this. You may or not believe it. After all, it’s us, Greeks, that are supposed to be the paranoid ones about greek defence in this forum. You ‘re making us pass as “too cold blooded that try to ignore a threat”. 😀

So, relations with Bulgaria are very well. There are no Bulgarian aircrafts flying over Greece or dogfights with them. 😀 There is no territorial claim that i know of from their part. Even more important, you may want to look at their current army inventory and you will realize that it’s not one of a country that plans war even if we suppose they had some secret plans. The portion of greek army which is currently next to the turkish border and also next to the Bulgarian is numerically equal or more to the entire Bulgarian army. There are also some thousands Bulgarians that have immigrated and work in Greece.

You may also be interested in this:

And, the biggest surprise of all, Todor Zhivkov, then the ruler of Communist Bulgaria, and member of the Warsaw Pact, started moving his armour and troops towards his frontier with Turkey, according to a personal agreement with Andreas.

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=59

Let me explain you why the communist Bulgaria bothered to support even only by a military dislocation of forces Greece instead of Turkey. In southern Bulgaria some Turks live, which are 10% of the total population. In the 3 greek regions of Thrace there is also a muslim minority of 130.000, out of which about 55% of them are of turkish descent. Turkey, ever since got rid of the equivalent greek one in Istanbul in the 1955 events, is using that as a weapon (in fact, Turkey calls all of them Turks, while the 45% are ethnically Rom and Pomaks, but these are minor details), promotes underground the idea of an independent state, which would encompass the greek regions and the Bulgarian Turks. Greece is an obstacle to that.

So, let’s say that Bulgaria successfully invades and takes the greek Thrace. She will have gained the greek Thrace and also the turkish apetite. And so Bulgaria would inherit our headaches. Not too much of a plan, considering that the region is mostly famous for the tobacco crops and the mosquitos… In order to keep the borders militarized, Bulgaria should start a much more costrly weapons program to be able to keep the tobacco and mosquitos without them becoming “Kosovo”. Isn’t it better to keep their money and invest them to more profitable endeavours than in taking our place as “guardians of frontier”? Apparently, for the Bulgarian goverment, is *is* more profitable…

Believe it or not, it’s up to you. I just say it so that the others won’t have to wonder further.

No.

Wait, i check…

Good question. It seems that countries members of the European Union are not exonerated ! 🙁
http://www.douane.gouv.fr/page.asp?id=349

I was afraid you ‘d say that. 😀 So the same applies to Typhoon… And so in the case of Rafale, the price for the greek competition would be 101M + the rest you said.

I wonder if you pay VAT if you buy US aircrafts… I know you needed to pay import taxes to the customs up to 2003, but not after that date. Because recently 6 Eu countries (one was Greece) were condemned by the EU Court to pay import taxes for US material imported up to 2003. After that date the tax was abolished, because of concerns about military secrecy that was violated at the customs. So basically the EU regulations make it more profitable to import US rather than EU equipment?! 😮

If Greece still has a defence budget in 2015, unless there’s a political deal about Typhoon, i see us ordering F16 B65 (cheap version of B70). 😀

I think 101M would be thw number for customers. 142M is the number including development costs.

Ah, that could be a possibility too. Because in 101 also writes “prix unitaire actuel”. Unless they mean that as fly-away and 142 with full support. But i find it hard to believe that 101 could be flyaway. It’s too high.

If things are as you say, then at the same column the price of 550,2 is for the FREMM customers and is exactly (almost, 2,2 bln for 4) the price that our previous gov had predicted for “frigate” cost (before specifying the FREMM). So that would make sense. Maybe Sarko can make us a special deal for bankrupt friends. 😀

Could some of the French members enlighten me to surpass the language barrier here?

http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-monde/2010-02-09/rapport-2010-cour-des-comptes-le-prix-du-rafale-devoile/1648/0/422158

If i understand correctly, the Rafale of the production series costs 101 mln euros per aircraft? Is this fly away? And what is the 142 mln about?

Thanks.

This is yet another article of February 9.

http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/7388/77386518.jpg

Title “Axis of pressure”. Basically at a NATO meeting in Istanbul, our MoD had private meetings with the MoDs of France, Germany and Britain. If we believe the article (the journalist is notorious of his lack of knowledge over defence) the spirit was that the dealing with the economic crisis (i suppose the global one) is connected to the need of bigger cooperation in the european industry and in such framework one must see the greek procurement programs.

So (always according to the journalist), they told our MoD.

– The German MoD said that if Greece buys Eurofighter, HAI will get 5000 posts of work.
– The French MoD said that with the Fremm the greek shipbuilding companies will get 1000 posts of work.
– The British MoD said he ‘d like to lease trainning aircrafts to Greece and transfer “know how” in the modernization of the greek army.

If we add this to the previous article (different newspapers), one understands that nobody is eager to axe the greek procurement program. Axe other things in the defence budget , yes. But not the procurement program.

Slightly off-thread perhaps, but in view of the parlous state of Greece’s finances, and the actions planned, are severe defence cutbacks included? If so what price some of these aircraft in 12 months time?

According to the latest press conference of the MoD, the defence budget for 2010, will be about 6 bln, reduced by about 6% compared to the last year. This was also what was submitted in the greek economic plan to the EU and was approved.

The greek economy, if the goverment proceeds as planned, isn’t as bad as it seems. The problem is, that all this got overblown due to financial and political speculation.

Some countries outside the eurozone, had interest in attacking Greece, spread panic , that eventually started hitting also Portuguese and Spanish spreads and eventually the euro fell. Those that had “bet” on a fall of the euro to the dollar, made a fortune. The biggest bets were made in the Chikago stock exchange.

Then you have the “Eurofools”, who, as i had written earlier, were almost rejoyicing with the trouble of Greece. Only now they realised the danger of “domino effect” and that , surprise, surprise, some would grab the opportunity to attack the euro. Instead of the EU giving political support to Greece, since day 1, they have been through official declarations, rumours, spreading panic, worsening the situation. Because the so called “markets”, are nothing more than common mortals, who wish to make investments and read newspapers and what “rumours” say. So they get false expectations or get scared just like any other man.

So, Americans and British had every interest in spreading more panic and spreading false rumours, because their currencies got a “free raise” over that. The Eurofools only now realize that shouldn’t have joined them (as the French chief of Paris stockmarket also said a couple of days ago).

To give a blatant example. This is the first batch of greek bonds for this year, even BEFORE the greek plan of austerity was fully announced. So, under normal conditions, it was the most difficult one. Bankruptcy, comes, in short term, if you go to sell your bonds, to re-finance your debt, and nobody wants to buy them, because exactly he fears that he won’t take his money back, because you will go to bankruptcy before you pay him back. You buy the bonds, only if you believe that after 5 or 10 years, you WILL get your money back (with interest).

This is in greek (sorry), but it’s some of the things you won’t find in your usual “the sky is falling” media, where “everyone loves Greece and trully worries about her”.

http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/8650/whoboughtthebonds.png

The highlighted parts are:

1) The banks that offered (of course they got a fee as percentage as commission) the greek bonds to their potential investors were Credit Suisse, Deutsce Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, EFG Eurobank and National Bank of Greece. The target was to raise from 3 to 5 bln euros.

The interesting thing is that at the same time that Deutsche Bank was partecipating in the sale, other officials of the bank, were spreading panic. This is counterproductive and contraddictory for any banker… It’s like selling something you don’t believe in and calling your clients that trust your bank to buy a product that you accuse.

2) The offers from investors were 28 blns (when the sale was from 3 to 5), so basically, there was too much offer over the bonds of someone that “is about to go bankrupt”. A bit weird. Given the offer, at the end the greek state sold bonds for 8 bln. At high interest 6,2%, yet , this was the most crucial test to see if you can get liquidity.

3) Even more interesting is the country of origin of the buyers: Greeks 26,2%, British 29,1%, French 7,9% , Germans 6,4% , Scandinavians 5,4%, Americans 9,4% , Italians 4% and minor quotas for Swiss and Austrians.

The most interesting are the British. The Financial Times are leading the choir of rumours and panic. Still they bought the most greek bonds. Odd… Or maybe not so odd.

After this “successful test”, spreads, should fall. And in deed they did. For one day… Because the day after, there was again the “daily rescue plan”. Which was promptly denied again by some EU official. The rumours creates an expectation to investors and the denial panic. So the spreads went back to even higher level than before the sale of bonds… 😀

And then of course some targeted also Portugal and Spain, their spreads went up , the euro fell down, some made a load of money. And more recently, stockmarkets fell somewhat. Only then the EU leaders realized how MORONIC (as i have written earlier in this forum) is to pour oil in the fire, as if Greece wasn’t part of the EU. Politicians, officials, bankers, were commenting daily on every hoax or were doing venomous predictions and comments, as if this would change the reality… I hope they enjoyed it. Before euro and their own stockmarket fell.

Nothing or much less of this would have happened, if the EU had simply given politically support to Greece, guaranteed strict surveillance and avoided to spour rumours that then some other official had to deny.
Now, after so many rumours they may have to “obbey” to the rumours and present a rescue plan, although i doubt it will be immediately used by Greece. Because it would send wrong message to the markets. Greece would need a hypothetical assurance that “If you need it, we will help”. That would stop the rumours and make things become normal again. Normal as “you sell your bonds= spreads go down. You present your stability plan and is accepted = further fall of spreads. You put in act the policy= down”.

This is what we may hear tomorrow, finally.

Back to the defence expenditure, this is a newspaper of 7 February and it shows why the EU wasn’t so anxious to cut more the greek defence budget, as was for example to cut salaries.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/3442/7022010.jpg

The title is “Eurofighters in exchange of aid”. 😀

The interesting points of the article.

1) Sources from the greek MoD, say that the new 5 year procurement plan (which is under review by the new MoD), will be about 10 bln euros (which isn’t much different than what the previous gov was planning). This because most defence budget cuts, will be done in costs of functioning (bureaucracy, better use of resources etc).

2) Despite the situation of greek economy and just before the visit of the german ministry of foreign affairs, the german EADS chief of fighters division, Bernard Ghervert paid a visit to the greek vice-minister of defence to remind him of the Eurofighter. Although he didn’t take tangible commitment.

3) The greek vice minister of defence denied that there is a direct connection between an aid and buying Eurofighter. He said that all countries try to push their interests, that’s their job, we do our job and there’s no link between the arms sales and aid. Of course if Greece does arrive to a point to get say a bilateral loan from Germany, i wouldn’t put my hand on fire about what our vice-minister said, if we follow with an order of Eurofigher. The timing of the article is also very interesting, since it’s from February 7.
The german proposal is for 40 Eurofighters for about 3.5-4 bln euros.

It is to be noted however, that the MoD has not mentioned the decision for aircrafts for this year in his priorities. But, this can’t exclude a political promice…

4) At the same way, Sarkozy was much more supportive since the first day to the greek PM, because he wanted to be sure, that he would proceed to conclude the negotiations with the FREMMs that the previous greek PM had started last April.

And in deed, Sarkozy wasn’t agree today to hear the greek PM to say that the deal will go on, despite the state of greek economy.

http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10754&Itemid=139

– 4+2 FREMMs will go on, at the condition that each ship, will be certified by the french directorate (DGA) (a clause to avoid a new Papanikolis case i suppose) and that France won’t sell Scalp Naval to Turkey (i find this a bit odd as a term, it may be a defencenet hoax, it happens from time to time). If all goes well, the contract will be signed in the next 12-16 months.

– Soon Greece will give the first payment for 2 Super Pumas, that were option for a previous purchase. The 15 new Super Pumas will follow when the issue of NH90 is solved. Greece aks for penalty fine 180 mln euros for delay on the execution of the contract, while the french branch of EADS says that recognizes that must pay 80 mln euros.

So, you can imagine that Sarkozy didn’t tear his clothes apart in the EU council insisting on cutting the greek defence expenditure either.

5) Exactly because of the timing, the goverment can’t proceed immediately with any of the “heavy” contracts, because how do you ask the public sector employees for example to accept the wages cuts, while at the same time you order FREMM? First you must pass the new legislation on fiscal policy and taxation and then you can buy the “heavy” ones.

6) So for now, the new MoD is limited to:

– Preparing new arms procurement law, incorporating the latest EU directives and trying to “sanitize” somewhat the chaos of his predecessor. This will have much impact on the importance of offsets (reduced) and local industrial partecipation. For example, the previous MoD, had accepted as usual “ghost offsets” and “theoretical” local industrial partecipation. As one example, one of the supposedly companies of “greek industrial partecipation” in the Leo2 contract, at the end was a company born out of nowhere, which was daughter company of the german company. So it wasn’t greek company. But was accounted as greek…

– He accepted the Apaches.

– He signed the RfP to get 223 second handed german M109A3 howitzers, which were tormented for years, first by US denial to be exported to Greece and later from bureaucratic delay of the previous MoD and the Germans would soon send them to the scrapyard. Same for 14 Pionierpanzer Dachs.

– He took decision of direct procurement of DM63 rounds from Germany and HEAT ammo from USA for the Leo2, because his predecessor had only taken DM33 rounds. Not sure if signed it already and how exactly it will be done. I think he will make a small direct procurement now and with the new law he will make the bigger one (the article in defencenet was unclear).

– He said he wants to solve within the year the issue of the still not installed EW suites of the older batch of F16 B52+ (LM delivered them with the EW separately , while the new batch had them pre-installed from USA), which the previous MoD for unknown reasons hasn’t been able to solve for all this time and the suites are gathering dust.

– Requested (accorging to defencenet) 100 AAV-7 and 72 M901Α2 ITV from US stocks.

– He plans to finalize the deal of BMP-3 within the year, but after renegotiating to give more workshare to the greek companies. According to a scenario, the workshare will increase by 10% and in exchange Greece won’t get the extra 30 BMP-3F that were given as offsets by the Russian.

* All the above (maybe i forget something), have in common that individually are “small” programs, so they don’t sound too provocative.

They have also in common, that may actually give you the political support you want. The greek PM that met Sarko today said “I didn’t ask financial support, i asked political support”. I think he will get it tomorrow from Sarkozy, a fervent support. I also think the German cabinet may be more supportive, especially if there’s some background deal about Eurofighter…

So, this is why there aren’t so many cries to further “axe” the greek expenditure. It’s money that flow mainly to european defence companies…

And on the other hand, the greek gov, although that would like to axe it much more, and even if they don’t believe in defence, they have to retain an appearance of “trying” just in case something happens. They must be able to say to the people “well, we hadn’t left the country totally defenceless!”.

Because, even RAND came with a report towards the US gov noting the “risk” of greek-turkish hot episode.

http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10756&Itemid=83

P.S.: I didn’t understand what you mean by “If so what price some of these aircraft in 12 months time?”